Dolphins vs. Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 2

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 2 matchup between the Dolphins and Bills on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 2 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Allen capitalized on a great spot in Week 1 for those who drafted him as the QB1 this summer.

Allen led all quarterbacks in fantasy points (31.2) out of the box.

He threw for 10.1 yards per pass attempt and a pair of touchdowns, adding another 2 touchdowns and 39 yards on the ground.

Allen had a small scare with an injury to his left hand, but all signs early on are that he is good to go for Thursday.

You are rolling out Allen as a front-end QB1, and he has tormented the Dolphins over his career.

In 13 career games against Miami, Allen has thrown 36 touchdown passes with multiple passing touchdowns in every game.

He also has another 5 rushing touchdowns in those outings.

Allen has thrown for over 300 yards in five straight games against Miami.

He has averaged 28.9 fantasy points per game against the Dolphins.

That includes being the QB3 (26.7 points) and QB4 (23.1 points) in his past two trips to Miami on the road.

Miami was a mixed bag defensively in Week 1 in their first game under Anthony Weaver.

Considering their moving parts and injuries, they held up and did enough.

The Dolphins only blitzed on 16.0% of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks (27th) but still generated pressure on 36.0% (14th).

Miami was eighth in pressure rate (38.1%) without blitzing and had a league-high 15.0% sack rate without blitzing in Week 1.

When Miami created pressure, they allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt on Sunday.

When they did not get pressure, they allowed 8.1, 21st in the league.

When Allen was not pressured in Week 1, he completed 76.2% of his passes with both of his touchdowns.

Allen also has a strong history on Thursday Night Football.

He has finished as a QB1 scorer in all six games on Thursdays, averaging 26.3 points per game.

Tua Tagovailoa: After leading the NFL in passing yards in 2023, Tua came out and led the league in passing again in Week 1 with 338.

It was not always pretty, but Tagovailoa and his speedy weaponry cashed in enough big plays to put him as QB8 in weekly scoring.

Tua has not had the same success as Allen when these teams square off.

Tagovailoa has one QB1 scoring week in six full games against Buffalo, averaging 11.7 points per game in those matchups.

In two games against Buffalo last season, Tua was the QB18 (13.9 points) and QB28 (7.6).

None of those previous games were against defensive coordinator Bobby Babich.

The Bills passed their initial test to open the season at home, limiting Kyler Murray to a QB15 scoring week.

Murray did not complete a pass over 10 yards downfield on Sunday, something Tua will challenge after throwing for a league-high 209 yards on throws 10-plus yards downfield in Week 1.

I still want to see the Bills step up against a legitimate downfield passing game.

I consider Tua a boom-or-bust QB1 option based on the potential upside of this game environment and his weapons, but there is volatility based on his history of success.

Tagovailoa will look to get through his first Thursday Night game.

In his previous two times playing on Thursday, Tagovailoa came in relief of Jacoby Brissett in 2021 and then was forced to exit his lone TNF appearance in 2022.

Running Back

James Cook: Sunday was the prototypical James Cook experience.

Cook handled 78.6% of the Buffalo backfield touches (RB10 on the week), turning 22 touches into 103 yards from scrimmage.

But he ended the week as a back-end RB2 because he could not get into the end zone.

Cook rushed twice inside of the 10-yard line (the only running back to receive a touch in that area), but Josh Allen ran in 2 touchdowns.

That has been the story with Cook.

He is efficient, posts solid yardage totals, and controls touches since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, but Allen remains a thorn by continuing to poach rushing scores.

That is what keeps Cook as a touchdown-dependent RB2.

Miami allowed 4.9 yards per carry to running backs in Week 1 (27th) with 1.71 yards before contact on those runs (24th).

Miami RBs: The Dolphins are coming into the short week with De’Von Achane (ankle) and Raheem Mostert (chest) dealing with injuries that prevented them from closing the game on Sunday.

Mostert has been ruled out for Thursday.

Before the injuries, we were seeing a split in favor of Achane.

Throughout three quarters on Sunday, Achane played 25 snaps while Mostert played 22.

Achane had 11 touches on his snaps while Mostert had only 5.

Achane then picked up 10 snaps and six touches in the fourth quarter while Mostert played six snaps and handled three touches before Jeff Wilson closed the game.

Miami struggled to run the ball in the game, but they kept good on their word in involving Achane as a pass catcher.

He led all running backs in Week 1 with 7 catches for 76 yards.

He ran a route on 61.0% of the dropbacks (RB10), but 31.4% of those were from the slot, the highest rate for a running back in Week 1.

From the slot, Achane had three receptions for 48 yards.

We will monitor the status of both Achane entering Thursday.

If he is good to go, there is added volatility playing with an ankle injury, but he is hard to bench.

If both backs are out, Jeff Wilson would vault up as an RB2 option while we would see Jaylen Wright debut after the rookie was a healthy scratch to open the season.

Wilson is FLEX worthy with Mostert out and the contingency upside that Achane is not 100%.

The Bills held up against the run in Week 1, allowing 3.3 YPC to running backs with a 73.7% success rate against those runs (7th).

Ray Davis: Davis handled only 4-of-28 backfield touches in Week 1.

Ty Johnson (2 touches) was injured and is day-to-day.

If Johnson misses the game, then Davis could see more work given the short week, but he is still a bench hold.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill: After an eventful pregame, Hill was able to get to the stadium and secure 7 of 12 targets for 130 yards including an 80-yard touchdown that just about no other player outside of Hill scores on.

He was targeted on 36.4% of his routes, accounting for 33.3% of the team targets and 65.3% of Miami’s air yards.

Jacksonville interestingly played man coverage on a league-high 72.5% of passing plays against Miami, which was a choice against the fastest wide receiver duo in the NFL.

The Bills only played man coverage on 16.7% of plays in Week 1, which was 22nd in the league.

Hill was targeted on 36.4% of his routes against both man and zone coverage on Sunday, which follows his usage over his first two seasons under Mike McDaniel.

As the league’s top explosive target, Hill remains a locked-in WR1.

Hill will be looking for his first 100-yard game against the Bills since joining Miami.

In five games against Buffalo with Miami, Hill has not had more than 82 yards in any contest with two total touchdowns.

I still want to see this Buffalo secondary answer this task, but they did a good job in Week 1, allowing only 4.3 yards per target to Arizona wide receivers.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle ran second-hand to Hill again on Sunday, drawing a target on 17.2% of his routes compared to a 36.4% rate for Hill.

But Waddle made the most of his opportunities when targeted, collecting all five of his targets for 109 yards, anchored by a 63-yard reception.

That is a good sign to open the season as both Waddle and Hill went over 100 yards together just two times all of 2023.

Waddle is not targeted as often as Hill, but this target tree is focused on their top playmakers.

Braxton Berrios was the only other Miami receiver who was targeted (twice), and he did not have a reception.

If Achane misses this game, the will be increased target opportunity for Waddle as an upside WR2.

Bills WRs: We got our first look at the Buffalo wideouts this season.

Keon Coleman led the group with 27 routes (90.0% of the team dropbacks), catching 4-of-5 targets for 51 yards.

Coleman had 21.7% of the team targets while the next closest player had 13.0%.

That was Khalil Shakir, who ran 21 routes, catching all three of his targets for 42 yards and a touchdown.

Mack Hollins ran 20 routes, pulling in both of his targets for 25 yards and a touchdown.

Curtis Samuel entered the week returning from turf toe, running only 9 routes and catching two passes for 15 yards.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling cleaned things up, running four routes and catching one pass for 19 yards.

We will surely see Samuel get more work as he gets healthier, but the fact that Buffalo put Coleman out there so much in his first game is promising for those looking to use him as a WR3/FLEX option.

Shakir remained efficient and led the core wideouts in yards per route run, but his overall usage keeps him as a FLEX option for only deep formats.

Miami allowed 11.8 yards per target to the Jacksonville wide receivers in Week 1 (29th in the league) with a 75.0% completion rate (28th) on those targets.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid had a disappointing Week 1, catching just 1-of-2 targets for 11 yards.

While the lack of targets was discouraging, Kincaid did have the playing time we were looking for. Just not the targets.

Kincaid ran a route on 83.3% of the Buffalo dropbacks, which was good for TE6 in Week 1.

Dawson Knox only ran 13 routes (43.3%), catching one pass for 23 yards.

As a rookie, Kincaid was targeted on 19.8% of his routes while running a route on 70.7% of the dropbacks.

Targets are going to come his way, and we have to give Kincaid more room as a TE1, but Sunday was an example of how this new passing game for Buffalo could end up nebulous with a lot of players involved.

Targets could move around week to week while Josh Allen remains an active runner in the red zone.

Miami only allowed one catch for four yards on Sunday to Evan Engram.

Miami TEs: Miami tight ends combined to catch two passes for 13 yards on Sunday.

The team rotated all of Jonnu Smith (16 routes), Julian Hill (16 routes), and Durham Smythe (14 routes) into the lineup.

No one here is more than a touchdown-or-bust play for fantasy.

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