The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Commanders and Bills.

Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

BuffaloRank@WashingtonRank
-6.5 Spread6.5
25.5 Implied Total19.0
27.08Points/Gm27.57
16.05Points All./Gm24.517
71.05Plays/Gm65.514
46.01Opp. Plays/Gm60.010
5.48Off. Yards/Play4.923
5.829Def. Yards/Play5.113
40.14%17Rush%38.93%23
59.86%16Pass%61.07%10
46.74%23Opp. Rush %40.00%12
53.26%10Opp. Pass %60.00%21

  • Josh Allen has completed 11.3% more of his passes than expected, the highest completion rate over expectation through two weeks.
  • Allen is averaging 3.8 air yards per completed pass (29th). He was second in 2022 at 7.7 yards downfield per completed pass.
  • Sam Howell has thrown just 30.9% of his passes outside of the numbers, ahead of only Jared Goff (25.0%).
  • 35.3% (18-of-51) of the Washington rushing attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate through two games.
  • Buffalo has used 12 personnel on a league-high 50.0% of their snaps and a league high 43.5% of passing plays so far through two weeks. The next closest team is at 36.5%.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen: After another down game against the Jets in the season opener, Allen rebounded in Week 2 against the Raiders, completing 31-of-37 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns.

Allen lived underneath on Sunday as only 21.6% of his passes went 10 yards or further downfield, which was 30th in the league this past week.

Allen averaged just 4.4 air yards per attempt. He only has two games with a lower depth of throw in his career.

He averaged just 3.9 air yards per completed pass after averaging 3.6 air yards per completion in Week 1.

Through two weeks, Allen has 42 completions on throws within five yards of the line of scrimmage, the most in the NFL.

Allen has still been fine when throwing downfield – his 47.6% completion rate on throws 10-plus yards is right in line with the league average of 47.7% – he has just been doing a lot less vertical passing to open the year.

That appears to be by design, with Buffalo going to more 12 personnel and James Cook soaking up targets early in the year.

It is something we will keep tabs on here early in the season, but the early look of this offense is that they want to add efficiency to Allen’s game and protect an offensive line that has had a number of moving parts.

We are using Allen as a front-end QB1 fantasy option, but that approach will be interesting for this particular matchup given how Washington has started the year.

Washington has been at their best defending short passes to open this season, allowing a 69.0% completion rate and 3.8 yards per attempt on throws shorter than 10 yards downfield. The league rates on those throws are 73.9% completion rate and 5.2 yards per attempt.

But on throws 10 yards or further downfield, Washington has allowed opposing passers to post a 108.3 rating (25th), completing 10-of-20 passes for 282 yards (14.1 Y/A) and two touchdowns. The league rates on those throws is a 47.7% completion rate, as noted earlier, with 10.2 yards per attempt.

Washington has faced Joshua Dobbs and Russell Wilson to open, so we will get a better gauge on their overall growth defensively, but they are coming off allowing a QB3 (25.9 points) scoring week to Wilson last weekend.

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