The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Eagles and Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Philadelphia | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Spread | 5.5 | ||
| 25.75 | Implied Total | 20.25 | ||
| 29.5 | 5 | Points/Gm | 23.5 | 16 |
| 24.0 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 17.0 | 8 |
| 68.0 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 68.0 | 9 |
| 66.5 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 57.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 19 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 20 |
| 5.7 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 18 |
| 53.68% | 3 | Rush% | 49.26% | 7 |
| 46.32% | 30 | Pass% | 50.74% | 26 |
| 23.31% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 28.95% | 3 |
| 76.69% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 71.05% | 30 |
- 86.2% of the yardage gained against the Eagles has come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- 82.1% of the yardage gained against the Buccaneers has come via passing, the second-highest rate in the league.
- 52.3% of the Philadelphia yardage has come via rushing, third in the league.
- Just 21.4% of Jalen Hurts’ pass attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, ahead of only Kenny Pickett (19.7%).
- The Eagles have the lowest success rate in the league on passing plays (30.2%) after a 45.25 rate in 2022 (14th).
- Tampa Bay has allowed a gain of 20 or more yards on 9.7% of their opponent plays, the highest rate through two weeks.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts: Hurts was able to get there for fantasy last week as QB4 (25.2 points) on the strength of two 1-yard touchdown plunges on the highly controversial “tush push.”
Outside of those scores on the ground, Minnesota just sat back and made Hurts facilitate the offense, inviting the Eagles to run the ball, which they did.
Hurts threw just 23 passes, connecting on 18-of-23 for 193 yards with a touchdown and interception.
Hurts threw zero passes on the intermediate level (11-19 air yards), the only quarterback to do so in Week 2.
This Philadelphia passing game has not clicked through two games under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, but it will be interesting to see how Todd Bowles approaches things here.
When teams have blitzed Hurts, he is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt with a 122.1 rating.
When teams have not blitzed him, he has averaged just 5.1 Y/A with a 75.7 rating.
When teams have not blitzed him and played zone coverage, Hurts is 22-of-26 passing, but he is averaging just 4.5 Y/A with a 69.6 rating on those throws. This was the approach Flores took often last Thursday Night.
Tampa Bay blitzed on 42.6% of dropbacks in Week 1 (second in the league) against the stationary Kirk Cousins, but then scaled that back to a 27.8% rate (15th) in Week 2 against Justin Fields.
There could be a similar approach here against Hurts.
That said, we are still working with small-sample outcomes.
A year ago, Hurts led the NFL with a 106.1 rating and averaged 7.6 Y/A when he was not blitzed and teams played zone coverage.
We are still looking for this Philadelphia to find its stride in 2023, but Hurts has so many extra outs for fantasy as a QB1 via his legs and being the best short-yardage rusher in the NFL.
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has opened the season with back-to-back good outings for fantasy.
He closed Week 1 as QB11 (16.0 points) and Week 2 as QB18 (18.4 points).
He has taken advantage of two great matchups we are likely going to target frequently this season for streamers and QB2 options, but the fact that he delivered in those matchups counts.
Mayfield has been the league’s highest rated passer under pressure (123.1), going 15-of-21 (71.4%) for 230 yards (11.0 Y/A) and a touchdown.
The Eagles have already had to deal with a plethora of injuries to open the year and it has shown up defensively.
They have allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt (21st) and a league-high 7.1% touchdown rate to passers.
The Eagles should get back both James Bradberry and Reed Blankenship back for Sunday Night after they missed Week 2, but they did lose Avonte Maddox, who was placed on injured reserve.
On top of that, the Eagles have gotten out to two early leads and have been dominant against the run, which has forced a ton of passing volume for their opponents.
The Eagles have already faced 104 dropbacks through two games, the second-most in the league.
As a result, they have allowed 316 and 364 passing yards with seven combined passing touchdowns.
Chasing the implied game script and the assumption that Tampa Bay is going to have trouble running the ball, Mayfield is still on the table as viable QB2.
Running Back
Eagles RBs: With Kenneth Gainwell missing Week 2 due to a rib injury, the door was open for another Philadelphia running back to make this more of a competition moving forward.
D’Andre Swift did just that and more.
After just two touches in Week 1, Swift turned 31 touches into 181 yards and a score last Thursday.
Now with Gainwell expected to return this weekend, what type of split will we see moving forward?
Gainwell has 169 career carries in the regular and postseason. Just one of those has gained 20 or more yards. Swift had a 43-yard run last week.
The Tampa Bay defense has only allowed 101 rushing yards to running backs in two games, but they also faced the Chicago and Minnesota backfields, two teams that have not run in either of their other games as well.
Tampa Bay has just a 52.0% success rate against those running back runs, which is 30th in the league.
Philadelphia will put those numbers to the test in Week 3.
There is some ambiguity here, leaving both Swift and Gainwell as boom-or-bust plays.
Those chasing Swift’s Week 2 game likely missed out on what will be his best game of the season. That said, Swift is the most-talented back on this roster and the player I would bet on in the big picture.
Rachaad White: After 49 yards on 19 touches in Week 1, White rebounded with a solid game against the Bears, rushing 17 times for 73 yards and a touchdown while adding five receptions for 30 yards through the air.
White took advantage of optimal conditions as a home favorite playing the worst defense in the NFL, but it was good to see him deliver so we can go back with a level of confidence in future favorable matchups when we get them.
This is a tougher ask.
The Eagles have squished the run to open the year, allowing running backs to rush 28 times for 82 yards (2.9 YPC) through two games.
Just 14.3% of those runs have resulted in a first down or touchdown, fourth in the league.
If you are looking for solace if pressed to use White as an RB2, the Eagles are 28th in receiving points allowed to backs to open the year.
In full-PPR formats, White can save a poor rushing line through the passing game, but overall, we will need him to find some fortune getting into the end zone since we are not expecting efficiency on the ground.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown: After catching 7-of-10 targets for 79 yards in the season opener, Brown secured just 4-of-6 targets for 29 yards last Thursday against the Vikings.
Minnesota played off coverage all night long, and Brown was visibly frustrated by his lack of involvement.
To compound matters, he had a 24-yard touchdown negated by a flimsy holding penalty.
While the outcome was an overall letdown for gamers, the sky is hardly falling. He still had more targets than DeVonta Smith, despite the outcome in results.
Since joining the Eagles, Brown has been their man beater.
Since the start of last season, he has been targeted on 31.7% of his routes against man coverage as opposed to a 21.9% rate against zone.
That latter rate is not poor by any means, there is just a larger gap between the two rates than what Smith has (26.8% versus 20.5%).
So far to open the 2023 season, Brown has been targeted on 35.3% of his routes against man coverage as opposed to 19.1% rate against zone.
The Buccaneers have played zone coverage on 87.7% of passing plays through two weeks, the third-highest rate in the league.
That would push us to believe that this is another signal against a spike week, but I do believe we will see some of the “squeaky wheel” narrative in play with Brown after last week.
Tampa Bay has also not been good overall against wideouts.
Through two games, the Bucs have allowed 9.8 yards per target to opposing wide receivers (28th) and 15.3 yards per catch (28th) to the position.
We still do not know if they will have Carlton Davis (toe) back, either.
Brown is still a WR1 on Sunday Night.
