The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Jaguars and Texans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | Spread | -9.5 | ||
| 17.25 | Implied Total | 26.75 | ||
| 14.5 | 29 | Points/Gm | 20.0 | 21 |
| 28.0 | 27 | Points All./Gm | 19.0 | 10 |
| 75.5 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 66.5 | 12 |
| 57.0 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.5 | 21 |
| 4.4 | 29 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 26 |
| 5.4 | 23 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 14 |
| 32.45% | 28 | Rush% | 39.85% | 18 |
| 67.55% | 5 | Pass% | 60.15% | 15 |
| 48.25% | 26 | Opp. Rush % | 36.09% | 6 |
| 51.75% | 7 | Opp. Pass % | 63.91% | 27 |
- Through two weeks, the Jaguars have a league-low -35.9 expected points added on offense. The next closest team (the Jets) is at -22.0.
- Houston is 29th in EPA on offense (-19.5).
- Jacksonville is second in expected points added defensively (27.1), trailing only the Cowboys through two weeks.
- The Jaguars have converted a league-low 25.0% (6-of-24) of their third downs through two weeks. The league average is 39.9%.
- The Texans have converted a league-low 16.7% (1-of-6) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns.
- Houston is averaging a league-low 3.8 yards per play on first downs.
- The Jaguars are allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per play on first downs.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence was one of the most disappointing fantasy outcomes in Week 2, closing the week as QB30 (9.2 points).
He completed 22-of-41 passes (53.7%) for 216 yards (5.3 Y/A) without a touchdown, adding 26 rushing yards.
The Jacksonville offense has not gotten out of the blocks, with a lot tying into their performance on third downs to open the year.
On early downs, Lawrence has completed 67.3% of his passes for 7.5 Y/A. On third downs has completed just 46.7% of his passes for 2.7 Y/A over the opening two games with four first downs.
On Sunday, Lawrence was 4-of-9 for 18 yards on third downs after going 3-of-6 for 23 yards in Week 1.
Lawrence was right at league average rates on third downs in 2022, so I would expect him to get closer to the base rate for the league. He also started out slow for fantasy a year ago, so we could be dealing with some early season variance.
I am still handling Lawrence as a QB1 option attached to one of the higher implied team totals on the week, but there is some potential that this is not a spike week.
We are only two weeks into the season, but the Houston pass defense has been game again.
In 2022, Houston was second in the NFL in passing points allowed per game (10.7) and third in passing points allowed per attempt (0.347).
Through two games this year, they are seventh in passing points allowed (8.9 per game) and ninth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.324).
Lawrence only played one full game against Houston a year ago, but that game was at home. He ended that week as QB22 (10.3 points), completing 25-of-47 passes for 286 yards, failing to throw a touchdown pass with two interceptions.
That said, when Gardner Minshew entered the game on Sunday, he connected on 19-of-23 passes (82.6%) for 171 yards (7.4 Y/A) with a touchdown against Houston.
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich's regular content, including positional rankings and chats, click below to purchase our season-long fantasy package.
Purchase
