The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions Thanksgiving Day game.
|39.30%||5||Opp. Rush %||45.55%||24|
|60.70%||28||Opp. Pass %||54.45%||9|
- Games in Detroit are averaging 62.2 combined points scored, the most in the league.
- The Lions are averaging 2.94 points per drive at home this season, the most in the league.
- The Bills have scored on 48.1% of their drives, the highest rate in the league.
- Detroit has allowed opponents to score a touchdown on a league-high 31.7% of drives. League average is 21.3%.
- 46.2% of the Buffalo drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, the highest rate in the league.
- 43.3% of the drives against Detroit have reached the red zone or scored prior, the highest rate in the league.
- Opponents have converted 46.2% of their third down passing plays against the Lions, the highest rate in the league.
- Josh Allen has converted 50% of his passing attempts on third down, fourth in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Josh Allen (TRUST): Allen is coming off his lowest-scoring game of the season (12.6 points), throwing a season-low 197 yards with just one touchdown pass. He also ran for just seven yards, his lowest total of the season.
Allen has now thrown for 218 yards or fewer in three of the past four games. Should we be concerned about the elbow injury? He just was the QB7 the week prior, so it is hard to tie a lot of weight into that. Last week had a number of drives end in field goals (Buffalo punted just twice on 11 drives) and they did not have a turnover so I am still chalking up last week’s outcome to more variance than anything else, although we will keep an eye on how Buffalo manages him with a short turnaround.
The Lions offer multiple ways for Allen quickly rebound. They are 29th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.472), dead last in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.1 Y/A), and 12.3 yards per completion (31st) to opposing passers.
The Lions have also allowed the most rushing points to quarterbacks, allowing multiple rushing points to all of Jalen Hurts (90 yards and a touchdown), Carson Wentz (23 yards), Geno Smith (49 yards and a touchdown), Aaron Rodgers (40 yards), Justin Fields (147 yards and two touchdowns), and Daniel Jones (50 yards and a touchdown).
Jared Goff: Goff is coming off another non-descript fantasy game on Sunday, throwing for 165 yards with zero touchdowns. Closing the week as the QB25 (6.5 points), Goff has finished as the QB19 or lower in five of his past six starts, throwing four total touchdown passes over that span.
Goff is stuck as a QB2, but if going to well with him in 2QB formats or Thursday DFS, Buffalo should force passing volume and press the scoreboard. The Bills are facing 35.2 pass attempts per game (10th most) and have allowed over 300 yards passing in four of their past six games, which includes passers such as Kenny Pickett and Jacoby Brissett. The biggest hang-up with Goff getting fully over is that the Lions just do not have a lot of weaponry right now available outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Devin Singletary: Singletary cashed in a strong matchup last week against the Browns, turning 20 touches into 97 yards. He found the end zone on the ground for the third time over the past two weeks after failing to score on the ground through nine weeks.
Singletary has settled in on handling two-thirds of the backfield touches, accounting for 66.7%, 63.6%, and 62.5% of the backfield touches over the past three games.
He has another great draw on paper here against a Detroit run defense that has allowed 17.8 rushing points per game (29th) to opposing backs. Detroit has been a touch better against the run since coming out of the bye, allowing 3.96 YPC to backs (14th) while climbing to 22nd in success rate (61.9%) and 18th in the rate of those carries to gain a first down or touchdown (22.9%) on those carries. That is still largely average over that span, but it is an improvement over being one of the worst run defenses overall like they were to open the year. They did bottle up Saquon Barkley last week, but the Bills running game is more of an ancillary function of the offense than something to sell out to stop like a week ago.
Singletary is a touchdown dependent RB2 play.
Jamaal Williams: Williams just keeps reaching the end zone. With another three rushing touchdowns on Sunday, Williams now has a league-high 12 rushing scores on the season. Sunday was his fifth game with multiple rushing touchdowns this year. No other player has more than three such games.
With the Lions taking a delicate approach with D’Andre Swift, Williams has 47.9% of the backfield touches over the past four games. But this is still a touchdown-dependent fantasy asset. 67 of those 70 touches over that span have been carries. 46.9% of the fantasy point scored by Williams have come directly from touchdowns, the highest rate among running backs.
Buffalo is allowing the fewest yards prior to contact (0.53) on running back carries. What has gotten them into some trouble is they are 31st in yards allowed after contact (3.71 yards) on those carries. But when they are tackling true like last week, you see how their penetration can nuke a back like Nick Chubb, who they just held to 19 yards rushing. Williams is 26th in yards generated after contact per carry (2.70 yards) among the 32 backs this season with over 100 carries.
D’Andre Swift: Swift was handled with kid gloves again Sunday, playing just 21 snaps (31.3%), which was fewer than Justin Jackson (25 snaps). Swift did still find the end zone for the second straight game but handled just eight total touches for 32 yards. Since returning to action in Week 8, Swift now has totaled 30 touches for 127 yards over those four games with highs of 10 touches and 50 total yards.
On a short week, it is hard to see Detroit really ramping up Swift here, if they do so at all over the remainder of the year. That leaves him as a volatile FLEX play and better tournament dart for Thursday DFS.
James Cook: Cook has had a small bump out of the Week 7 bye, handling 30.1% of the backfield touches (28 touches overall) since the bye after 17.3% prior (23 touches total). That still has him as a contingency bet than a player with standalone value outside of a prayer swing on Thursday DFS.
Stefon Diggs (TRUST): Diggs received a season-low five targets on Sunday and dropped a sure touchdown pass, but he still salvaged the afternoon with his eighth touchdown on the year to go along with four catches for 48 yards.
Diggs had previously seen 30% or more of the team targets in each of the five previous games.
This is a strong spot to quickly bounce back to spike-week status against a Detroit defense that is 26th in points allowed per game (17.2) to opposing WR1 targets and will not have Jeff Okudah available Thursday.
The Lions play man coverage on 37.7% of passing plays (fifth most). Diggs is averaging 2.82 yards per route run against man coverage, second in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown delivered another volume-filled line that was more fruitful for PPR formats. St. Brown caught 7-of-8 targets for 76 yards against the Giants.
He has not found the end zone since Week 2, but St. Brown just continues to stack opportunities in this depleted pass catching corps. He received another 32.0% of the team targets this past week.
When on the field this season, St. Brown has 35.9% of the Detroit targets, which trails only Tyreek Hill (36.9%).
The Bills have been banged up in the secondary the entire season and we continued to see it show last week in the box score for fantasy. Buffalo has allowed five WR1 scoring weeks to wideouts over their past five games, allowing strong lines to lead wideouts Amari Cooper (8-113-2), Justin Jefferson (10-193-1), Garrett Wilson (8-92-0), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (5-113-1) over that stretch.
Since Week 5, Buffalo is 27th in receptions (81), 28th in yards (1,108), and 28th in touchdowns (eight) allowed to opposing wideouts.
St. Brown needs to end his scoring drought to get fully over, but it is a volume-based WR1 in full-PPR formats and a high-end WR2 in non-PPR formats.
Gabriel Davis: Davis is starting to see some consistent volume come his way after catching 5-of-7 targets for 68 yards on Sunday.
Davis now has at least seven targeted in three of his past four games played after failing to hit that mark in any of his opening five games this season. He has 22.6% of the team targets since the bye week after seeing 14.0% over his first five games this season.
Davis finding a stable floor would be a huge development since we know where the weekly ceiling resides. The Lions give up plenty of big plays, allowing 9.3 yards per target (31st) and 13.8 yards per catch (28th) to opposing wide receivers.
Davis does have wide splits versus man and zone coverage, averaging 2.05 yards per route run against zone as opposed to 0.86 yards per route run against man coverage. We are still getting zone looks on nearly 60% of the passing plays from Detroit, so keep Davis as an upside-based option right on the WR2/WR3 line with slate-breaking potential on Thursday DFS.
Isaiah McKenzie: McKenzie did catch his lone target Sunday, giving him 13 catches for 87 yards over the past six games. McKenzie has topped 37 yards just once this season, leaving him as a thin option all around.
Lions WRs: Detroit took things easy on D.J. Chark in his return to the field. Chark played just 11 snaps, sharing time with Tom Kennedy (19 snaps) as the WR3. On a short week, we should expect Chark to continue to be worked in but is nothing more than a Hail Mary fantasy play.
Kalif Raymond remained a full-time player, running a route on 23-of-27 dropbacks. Raymond pulled in 3-of-7 targets for 33 yards, tacking on a seven-yard run.
Raymond’s primary appeal comes solely as a DFS dart throw, but Josh Reynolds has also been cleared to return, clouding this rotation.
Dawson Knox: Knox received a season-high 28.0% of the team targets Sunday, catching all seven of his looks for 70 yards. It was the first time that Knox cleared 17.7% of the team targets in a game this season, which also coincided with a season-low target opportunity for Stefon Diggs, so we won’t fully count on something similar here.
That said, Knox has run a pass route on over 80% of the team dropbacks the past two weeks. He offers cheap attachment to a high-powered passing game with a favorable matchup. That is enough to consider him as a back-end TE1 with upside this week.
Detroit is allowing 8.6 yards per target (28th) and a 10.1% touchdown rate (31st) to opposing tight ends.
Lions TEs: Brock Wright continues to operate as the lead tight end here, playing 50 snaps (74.6%) compared to 15 snaps for James Mitchell and 11 snaps for Shane Zylstra. Since the trade of T.J. Hockenson, this trio has combined for just nine total targets, so you are strictly chasing a touchdown here.
More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: