Titans vs. Colts Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 6

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 6 matchup between the Titans and Colts.

Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Anthony Richardson: Richardson got some practice time last week, so we are optimistic that he will be able to suit up this weekend.

Shane Steichen has already stated that Richardson will be the starter when ready, but this is why it was so tough for some teams to add Joe Flacco this offseason.

It is a dangerous road to tread from a PR stance if your backup is better than your young, 1st-round investment at quarterback. 

Richardson has left four of his eight career starts early, so there is also the event that insurance is needed. However, now that Flacco has played well in back-to-back weeks, Richardson will have extra pressure from the public to perform at a higher level than where he has played to open the season.

If Richardson is bad and the Colts lose this weekend, then the outcry for Flacco will gain momentum.

Richardson is the lowest-rated passer this season from a clean pocket (65.9), but he did get off to a strong start in Week 5 before leaving with that rib injury.

Richardson is a boom-or-bust fantasy option. 

Tennessee has not been a favorable matchup to open the season, but they have also faced Caleb Williams, Aaron Rodgers, Malik Willis, and Tyler Huntley. 

It is hard to take a lot away from those matchups other than the fact that they did allow 73 yards and a touchdown rushing to Willis and 40 yards and a touchdown on the ground to Huntley. 

The Colts may pull back on Richardson’s designed runs (and we have already covered how he is not scrambling at a high rate), but you can’t play Richardson and shy away from his current strengths.

Will Levis: Levis was forced to exit Week 4 before the bye with a shoulder injury, but he is expected to practice this week and play on Sunday.

We will follow his status and adjust should he miss this game.

This spot is an intriguing one. 

The Colts have allowed the most fantasy points over what a quarterback has averaged entering that matchup. 

I have chased Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence for the past two weeks, but trusting Levis will test our resolve. 

The only quarterback that has been worse from a clean pocket this season than Levis has been Richardson.

We always talk about the Colts under the context of how much Cover 3 that Gus Bradley runs. 

Levis is the lowest-rated passer against Cover 3 this season (41.8), completing 19-of-34 passes (55.9%) for 4.8 Y/A with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions.

In this matchup a year ago, Levis was QB19 (11.5 points), completing 16-of-33 passes (48.5%) for 224 yards (6.8 Y/A) and a touchdown.

The Colts’ defense in that matchup was far healthier than this current unit, giving more hope that Levis can take advantage this time.

With all that in place, I am leaving Levis as a matchup-based QB2 and will not push back on anyone trotting out some Tennessee stacks in large-field DFS since targeting the Colts has paid out so frequently this season.

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Running Back

Tony Pollard: Pollard has been a top-20 back in three of his four games this season, posting games of 94, 102, and 108 total yards outside of one stinker against Green Bay with 29 yards on 9 touches.

Pollard has at least 19 touches in every game outside of that down week.

Pollard has done that with no help from this Tennessee offensive line.

He averages -0.03 yards per carry before contact, the fewest among all backs with 50 or more runs.

This is not exclusive to him, as Tyjae Spears averages 0.22 yards before contact per rush. 

Pollard has created after that contact.

He averages 4.07 yards after contact per rush, the most of any back with 50 or more runs this season.

This Tennessee offense has centered around running the ball as much as possible, which they may be able to do here again.

The Colts are facing 28.2 backfield runs per game, the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Even if we exclude the Green Bay game, they face 24.5 per game, the 27th-highest rate in the league.

The Colts are coming off allowing 199 total yards to the Jacksonville backfield. 

Pollard is a matchup-based RB2 with added upside, should the Titans control the game script.

If not, we could see some pullback here as Pollard shared more work with Spears as the season progressed, which Brian Callahan said was a goal.

Pollard had 19 touches in Week 4, but his 58.5% share of the backfield touches was his lowest rate in a game this season.

Tyjae Spears: Spears only had 39 yards when we last saw him in Week 4, but he found the end zone for his first touchdown and handled a season-high 17 touches.

After Callahan stated that he wanted more of a split in this backfield after Week 2, Spears has handled 40% and 41.5% of the touches after rates of 29.6% and 26.7% to kick off the season (he did exit Week 2 early).

Spears has not created explosive runs (3.7%) like Pollard has (11.5%), but he has a higher success rate (40.7%) than Pollard (29.5%) due to a lower rate of negative runs (14.8% to 21.3%).

Pollard has played heavily over Spears in the red zone (24 snaps to 7), which makes it harder to latch onto Spears as more than a matchup-based FLEX from which we are looking to see a continued spike in workload.

Colts RBs: We will tentatively enter this week expecting Jonathan Taylor to miss another game with his ankle injury, but we will keep tabs on his availability.

With Taylor out in Week 5, Trey Sermon played 40 snaps, handling 16 touches for 63 yards with a touchdown.

Tyler Goodson played 29 snaps, turning 8 touches into 57 yards.

Goodson ran 22 routes compared to 17 for Sermon, despite Sermon garnering 6 targets to Goodson’s 3.

That may not be static transitioning from Joe Flacco to Anthony Richardson.

Sermon played 12 red zone snaps to 5 for Goodson.

If we have a layout similar to last weekend, Sermon can once again be used as a touchdown-dependent play for needy gamers. 

The Titans have played the run well to open the season, allowing 3.4 YPC to running backs (3rd) with a first down or touchdown on only 16.9% of those runs (4th).

We would like to see Flacco because the Titans are 27th in receiving points allowed per game (11.5) to backfields.

Flacco has thrown to running backs on 17.6% of his throws compared to an 11.1% rate for Richardson.

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman: Pittman only managed to pull in 5-of-8 targets for 37 yards on Sunday, but one of those was in the end zone, his first touchdown of the season.

Pittman’s 17.8% target share was his lowest of the season.

There are small samples and such, but Pittman has been targeted on 29.5% of his routes from Richardson compared to a 21.2% rate from Flacco.

The rub is that 17.4% of Pittman’s targets from Richardson have been inaccurate, so we started the year with three weeks of Pittman being outside the top 50 scorers at his position.

If Richardson is back on the field, Pittman is a volume-based WR3. 

The Titans have not faced many strong quarterbacks, but they have only allowed 12.9 points per game to opposing WR1 targets (8th).

Josh Downs: Downs collected 9-of-12 targets for 69 yards on Sunday.

Downs has a team-high 29.0% of the targets, with Flacco under center, drawing a target on 35.7% of his routes.

He has been targeted on 33.3% of his routes with Richardson in the game, but Richardson’s target rate is 16.7% inaccurate compared to Flacco’s 5% rate.

Downs is only averaging 6 air yards per target regardless of quarterback, with 77% of his targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

His floor has more stability with Flacco than Richardson, but Downs is a floor-based FLEX in full-PPR formats.

60.5% of the receptions by wide receivers against the Titans have come through the slot, the highest rate in the league.

Calvin Ridley: Ridley comes out of the bye with 9 catches on 19 targets. 

In the past two games, Ridley only has one reception in each game for 14 total yards.

We have to believe he will get more work than we left off, but we are looking for a usage change. 

36.8% of his targets have been on throws 20 or more yards downfield, third among all receivers with 100 or more routes. 

31.6% of his targets are go routes, third on the same list.

As a byproduct, 21.1% of his targets have been inaccurate (9th highest)

We are looking for more fantasy-smoothing targets to provide a safer floor for Ridley.

Under his current usage, he is a boom-or-bust FLEX.

The good news is that this matchup can be favorable for the upside outcome if you are willing to take on his floor.

The Colts have allowed a 73.3% catch rate to outside wide receivers (30th) for 10.3 yards per target (30th).

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins closed the start of the season as WR95, WR98, WR17, and WR70.

When we last left off in Week 4, he was still limited, running a route on 59.1% of the dropbacks, which was a season-high.

The positive spin is that Hopkins was the best wide receiver on the team per route before the bye (1.95 yards per route).

If he comes out of the bye as a full-time player, he can turn that into more steady production.

Hopkins also gets the best end of the matchup.

Against Cover 3, he leads the team with a target on 21.7% of his routes, with 2.04 yards per route run.

That was the case last year as well.

Levis targeted Hopkins on 25.5% of his routes against Cover 3 as a rookie. 

When these two teams met a year ago, Hopkins had games of 8-140-0 and 5-75-1.

If you can believe Hopkins will get an extended role out of the bye (and Levis), he is a matchup-based WR3/FLEX with added upside and DFS appeal.

Alec Pierce: Pierce is the ultimate all-or-nothing fantasy swing you can take right now.

He has only 13 catches with three or fewer targets in every game but one, but he is averaging 28.3 yards per catch and three touchdowns.

He leads the NFL with 5 catches of 40 or more yards, 3 of which have gone for 50 or more.

Pierce already has touchdowns of 60 and 65 yards.

He also has weeks of WR70 and WR97 in his games without a touchdown.

Out of 76 wide receivers to run 100 or more routes, Pierce ranks 71st with a target on 12.3% of those routes.

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