The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 6 matchup between the Texans and Patriots.
Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Houston | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.0 | Spread | 7.0 | ||
| 22.25 | Implied Total | 15.25 | ||
| 20.4 | 19 | Points/Gm | 12.4 | 31 |
| 22.8 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 20.4 | 9 |
| 67.0 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 59.0 | 23 |
| 57.2 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 23 |
| 5.6 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.3 | 31 |
| 4.8 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 24 |
| 38.81% | 24 | Rush% | 45.08% | 15 |
| 61.19% | 9 | Pass% | 54.92% | 18 |
| 43.36% | 17 | Opp. Rush % | 44.20% | 19 |
| 56.64% | 16 | Opp. Pass % | 55.80% | 14 |
- The Texans have 592 more passing yards than their opponents, the league's best margin.
- The Patriots have 598 fewer passing yards than their opponents, the worst margin in the league.
- Houston averages 2.38 points per drive in the first half (12th) compared to 1.29 points per drive in the second half (28th).
- 29.5% of Houston's set of downs have reached third and long, ahead of only the Browns (34.1%).
- The Texans have converted 36.4% (16-of-44) of those third and long, third in the league.
- The Patriots have converted 30.8% (4-of-13) red zone possessions into touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
- Houston has converted 69.2% (9-of-13) red zone possessions into touchdowns, fourth in the league.
- The Patriots are averaging 1.8 plays per game of 20 or more yards on offense, the fewest in the NFL.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud: Stroud has done some severe lifting the past two weeks, throwing for 345 and 331 yards while setting a new season high in yards per pass attempt in each game.
Our only complaint from a fantasy stance is that he only has two QB1 scoring weeks because he has thrown one touchdown pass in three outings.
We talked about this heavily this offseason with Stroud and his archetype of fantasy quarterback.
Since he relies on passing output to anchor his fantasy lines, he has to be elite at throwing touchdown passes to get home for fantasy as a regular QB1.
When Stroud throws multiple touchdown passes in a game, he has been the QB7 and QB7 in those weeks.
Houston has a modest team total here, and Stroud will likely be without Nico Collins, so we are again working with him as a back-end QB1 option that is forced to live on touchdown efficiency.
The other issue we are still dealing with regarding Stroud is that he is still forced to be a hero on third downs.
Houston is only 1% below pass rate expectations overall, but they are 9% below expectations on second and long (needing 8 or more yards) and 10% below expectations on second and medium (needing 3-7 yards).
Houston running backs have a first down or touchdown on only 15.9% of their rushing attempts, ahead of only the Raiders.
They have been missing Joe Mixon since Week 2, but that has forced the Texans to live on third downs.
On third downs, Stroud is 37-of-52 (71.2%) for 9.6 yards per attempt with a first down or touchdown on 48.1% of those passes.
All of those are top-five rates in the league.
Overall, this is not a matchup to hide from.
The Patriots are 24th in pressure rate (29.5%) and are playing man coverage on 37.0% of passing plays (4th).
Against man coverage, Stroud averages 10.1 yards per attempt (3rd) with a first down or touchdown on 59.3% of those passes (2nd).
Drake Maye: Maye will finally start his first career game on Sunday.
This preseason, Maye was 21-of-34 (61.8%) for 192 yards (5.6 yards per attempt) with a touchdown.
He has mobility, rushing 7 times for 32 yards.
In his two seasons starting at North Carolina, Maye also rushed for 1,209 yards and 16 touchdowns.
While we are not expecting much for Maye beyond the opening of 2QB leagues, the bar is set low for him to be a better fantasy option than what we were getting out of Jacoby Brissett.
Brissett has not had a week in which he has finished higher than QB25 in fantasy scoring.
His 5.2 yards per pass attempt were second to last in the NFL.
The primary concern for Maye is the state of this New England offensive line.
Brissett was pressured on a league-high 46.5% of his dropbacks.
Houston is allowing 3.6 yards per pass attempt when they have pressured the opposing quarterback, third in the NFL.
Maye only posted an on-target rate of 69.8% from a clean pocket in college, which was also the second-lowest rate in this class.
Maye was hurt by his desire to push the rock down the field.
No quarterback in this draft class averaged more air yards per throw than Maye in 2023 (10.7 yards).
On those passes, his 49.4% on-target rate was also the second-lowest rate in this class.
Running Back
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More Week 6 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| 49ers @ Seahawks -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jaguars @ Bears | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Cardinals @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Panthers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Giants | Sunday Night Football |
| Bills @ Jets -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
