Best Wild Card Round Quarterbacks: Fantasy Outlook for Every QB

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round. Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Full Game Wild Card Round Fantasy Football Previews

Justin Herbert Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

We came into this season expecting Herbert to have his best season from an efficiency stance while compromising counting stats under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman.

That played out as expected.

Herbert threw for a career-low 227.6 yards per game, but he set career-best marks in interception rate (0.6%), yards per pass attempt (7.7), and yards per completion (11.7).

He was 12th among all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (0.10), his highest mark since 2021.

While the conservative nature of this offense muted some of his top-down statistics, the Chargers opened things up along the way, which propelled Herbert to more fantasy success.

Since Week 8, the Chargers have thrown the ball 1% over expectations.

That was not groundbreaking, but they were 5% below expectations up until that point of the season.

They had a 60.2% dropback rate (20th) after a 52% rate (29th) prior.

From then on, Herbert averaged 8.0 Y/A (6th) and 12.0 yards per completion (7th) with a 5.0% touchdown rate (14th) after he averaged 7.1 Y/A (19th), 10.9 yards per completion (18th), and a 3.7% touchdown rate (20th) prior.

The team generated splash plays, averaging 4.2 completions of 20 or more yards per game over that spike (7th in the league) compared to a 3.2 per game beforehand (20th).

As a result, Herbert averaged 15.7 fantasy points per game over that stretch compared to 11.4 per game before.

He went from a back-end QB2 for fantasy to working his way into the back-end QB1 mix.

That lines up with the boom-or-bust nature of the Houston pass defense.

The Texans allowed a league-low 58.9% completion rate this season and 6.8 yards per pass attempt (6th).

But when they did surrender completions, they were often big plays.

The Texans allowed 11.5 yards per completion (25th).

They also allowed a 5.6% touchdown rate, which was 30th in the league and the highest of any team in the postseason.

An added area where Herbert has a path to production for fantasy is via his legs.

He rushed for a career-high 306 yards this season.

The Texans were 21st in rushing points allowed per game to quarterbacks (3.4).

C.J. Stroud Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

Stroud took a step back across the board in his second season, completing 63.2% of his passes (27th) for 7.0 yards per attempt (22nd) and a 3.8% touchdown rate (29th).

He ended the season averaging only 13.0 fantasy points per game (QB28), which was right on par with Kirk Cousins.

There is some irony here with Stroud facing Herbert.

Like Herbert, Stroud’s career got off to a fantastic start, but then he was pulled down by natural regression, several injuries to his surrounding playmakers, and a mish-mash offensive line.

The offensive line was also battered and bad during his rookie season, but this year, as noted earlier, Stroud did a worse job mitigating damage through sacks.

Stroud was pressured on 38% of his dropbacks this season (28th) but took a sack on 8.9% compared to a 7.1% rate as a rookie.

What compounded matters is he took a sack on 15.5% of his dropbacks on third down (34th in the league) compared to a 6.1% rate as a rookie (4th-lowest).

One of the exciting aspects for Stroud coming into his second season was that he would be throwing to Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell.

Well, he only threw 66 total passes this season with all three of those receivers on the field.

He averaged 7.8 Y/A on those plays with a 4.5% touchdown rate, which are good numbers.

He also ended the season with fewer pass attempts (182) than in 2023 (190) with both Collins and Dell on the field.

We did the same questioning with Herbert when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were on and off the field and his offensive line was battered and underperforming.

That is more of a discussion for the offseason and Stroud’s dynasty stock because, entering this week, this passing game is now largely Collins or bust at this stage.

Stroud has one 20-point fantasy game on the year, and it came back in Week 4.

Houston has the second-lowest team total of the week, so anticipating a significant fantasy runout is tough to lean on.

We have seen the Chargers pass defense soften over the back half of the season to provide some hope, but Stroud will need to get there via touchdown passes and efficiency over stacking yardage.

Over their past nine games, the Chargers have allowed a 66.8% completion rate (20th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (25th) but still have only allowed 6.9 Y/A (11th).

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Lamar Jackson Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

Whether he is awarded a third MVP Trophy or not, Jackson put together one of the best statistical seasons we have seen from a quarterback.

As a passer, Jackson led the league with an 8.6% touchdown rate, 8.8 yards per attempt, a 119.6 rating, and a 77.5 QBR.

He threw 41 touchdown passes to just 4 interceptions.

If that wasn’t enough, he added 915 yards and 4 touchdowns rushing.

Jackson also took a sack on a career-low 4.6% of his dropbacks.

He led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (25.3) but was held below that in both games against the Steelers, posting 14.9 points in Week 11 and 20.5 points in the Week 16 rematch.

Those were two of his four “lowest” scoring games this season.

We have been here before with Jackson, entering the postseason coming off a sensational regular season run.

The Ravens are huge favorites here with the highest team total on the Saturday slate, so Jackson will undoubtedly be the most popular quarterback in those contests.

There is added nuance in approaching those lineups for the full six-game slate.

The last hurdle Jackson needs to clear is getting over in the postseason.

His teams are 2-4 in the postseason.

He has thrown 6 total touchdown passes in those games with no more than 2 in any contest.

We hit on this during the regular season, but defenses aggressively played Jackson through Cover 1 and man blitzes to varying success.

Jackson faced man coverage on 31% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league.

He was blitzed on 32.6% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league.

That is the bread and butter of what the Steelers set out to do defensively.

Against Cover 1, Jackson completed 59.7% of his passes (12th) for 8.4 yards per attempt (7th) and a 6.7% touchdown rate (10th) during the regular season.

When Pittsburgh went to Cover 1 in the Week 11 matchup, Jackson was 6-of-13 (46.2%) for 72 yards (5.5 Y/A).

In the Week 16 rematch, they calibrated and Jackson scorched the Steelers in Cover 1, connecting on 11-of-14 (78.6%) passes for 161 yards (11.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.

Jackson had the most pass attempts in the NFL against man coverage blitzes (96) this season.

On those plays, Jackson completed 62.5% of his passes (8th) for 7.0 Y/A (18th) and a 9.4% touchdown rate (21st).

In the first matchup between these teams, Jackson was only 5-of-11 (45.5%) for 57 yards (5.2 Y/A) with an interception against the Pittsburgh man blitzes.

In the rematch, he was 9-of-14 (64.3%) for 105 yards (7.5 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.

We strongly sense that the Steelers will remain aggressive here since they have consistently done so all season, but they may want to adjust themselves.

Pittsburgh played man coverage on 53.4% of the plays against Baltimore in the regular season, blitzing Jackson on 48.3% of his dropbacks.

They played Cover 1 on 47.5% of the passing plays.

On the 24 dropbacks in which the Steelers dropped into zone coverage and did not blitz Jackson over those two games, he was 10-of-22 (45.5%) for 6.0 Y/A with 1 touchdown.

Pittsburgh has struggled on the back end to close the season, so adjustments should be made.

Over their past seven games, Pittsburgh has allowed 7.5 Y/A (25th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (25th).

Before that, they had allowed 6.9 Y/A (12th) and a 2.7% touchdown rate (5th).

We also have to keep tabs on the availability of Zay Flowers here.

Jackson still threw a pair of touchdowns with Flowers off the field in Week 18, but he was only 13-of-26 (50%) for 6.8 Y/A.

Baltimore has a limited supply of wideouts that scare the opposition, and Flowers accounted for a team-high 139 receiving yards in the two matchups between these teams.

Jackson has run more in the postseason over his career.

He has rushed for 86.8 yards per game in the playoffs with at least 54 yards rushing in five of those six games.

The Steelers did a solid job this season by limiting rushing production from passers.

Jackson had 46 and 22 yards against them.

Jalen Hurts had 45.

Jayden Daniels had 5 yards.

Bo Nix had 25.

Jackson has not run for a touchdown in six career starts against the Steelers with a high of 70 yards rushing in those games.

Russell Wilson Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

It has been a rough close to the season for Wilson and this Pittsburgh passing game.

Over his past five games, Wilson has completed 61.1% of his passes (25th) for 5.7 yards per attempt.

The only quarterback with fewer yards per attempt over that span is Dorian Thompson–Robinson (3.8 Y/A).

Wilson has thrown for fewer than 7.0 Y/A in all five games.

Three of those were without George Pickens, but even with Pickens returning to close the year, Wilson ended the season with only 5.5 Y/A versus the Chiefs in Week 17 and a season-low 4.8 Y/A in Week 18 against the Bengals.

The most significant difference has been Wilson has run colder on downfield throws.

Over the past five weeks, Wilson has completed 19-of-45 (42.2%) of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, 21st in the league.

Wilson completed 31-of-52 (49.6%) of those passes in his first six starts, third in the league during that stretch.

Even with Pickens returning, Wilson is 7-of-22 (31.8%) on those throws the past two games.

Wilson was 8-of-18 (44.4%) on those throws in his two games against the Ravens.

Baltimore has been a pass defense on the upswing.

They started the season as one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but over their past seven games, the Ravens have allowed a 59.5% completion rate (3rd), a league-low 5.8 Y/A, and a league-low 2.2% touchdown rate.

Their competition has been a mixed bag over that span, but that sample also includes two games against Wilson.

In those games, Wilson threw for 205 yards (5.7 Y/A) and 217 yards (6.6 Y/A).

He did throw a pair of touchdowns in that second matchup but added an interception and a lost fumble.

The Ravens have also been sturdy against the pass at home all season.

At home, they have allowed a 62.9% completion rate (8th), 6.8 Y/A (11th), and an 8.2% sack rate (8th).

Josh Allen Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

Allen hits the postseason as the second-highest scorer in fantasy (22.3 points) per game behind Lamar Jackson.

Allen averaged only 233.2 passing yards per game (his fewest since 2019), but he made up ground in efficiency, ball protection, and avoiding sacks.

Allen’s 7.7 yards per pass attempt were his highest since 2020 while his 12.2 yards per completion were his highest since his rookie season.

His 1.2% interception rate and 2.8% sack rate were career lows, contributing to his career-best 77.2 QBR and career-best mark in EPA per play (0.26).

Allen also rushed for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns. 

For the second consecutive season, Allen ran more to close the year.

Over his final seven games, Allen rushed 7.9 times for 45.7 yards per game with 9 touchdowns.

The Broncos are fourth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.373), but this defense has feasted on opponents that they should mush while looking softer against quality competition.

As good as Denver has been, they have not been impervious to front-end production and have allowed some spike weeks to close the season.

They allowed Justin Herbert 9.2 yards per pass attempt in Week 16 (22.2 fantasy points).

In Week 17, they allowed 412 yards, 8.4 Y/A, and 3 touchdowns to Joe Burrow (37 fantasy points).

In Week 9, they allowed Lamar Jackson 14.7 Y/A and 3 passing touchdowns (23.6 fantasy points).

In Week 13, they allowed 8.6 Y/A and 497 passing yards to Jameis Winston (33 fantasy points).

It will be interesting to see how Denver approaches this game.

They are seventh in the NFL in rate of man coverage (32.8%) and third in blitz rate (34.1%).

Allen has faced the most man coverage in the league at 34.1%.

Against man coverage, he has only completed 53.5% of his passes (26th) for 7.2 Y/A (15th), but he has an 11.9% touchdown rate (3rd).

When blitzed, Allen averages 8.2 Y/A (13th) with a league-high 11.1% touchdown rate.

However, Allen's touchdown rate against zone coverage this season is only 1.3%, 31st in the league.

The other component is Allen’s ability to run.

From Weeks 10-17 (that same stretch we outlined where Allen was running more), he led all quarterbacks with 143 yards rushing against man coverage with 3 touchdown runs.

Allen has been exceptional in these Wild Card games.

Over his past four opening postseason games, Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in all of them with 3 or more passing scores in each of the past three.

Bo Nix Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

Nix capped a stellar rookie season by completing over 70% of his passes in each of the final three games of the year and by throwing multiple passing touchdowns in seven of the final eight games.

Nix closed the year throwing 29 touchdowns with 12 interceptions, adding 430 yards and 4 touchdowns rushing.

Nix ended the year as QB8 in fantasy points per game (18.7).

Sean Payton targeted Nix to mold in a proxy of his new version of Drew Brees with athleticism, and he set that plan in motion in year one.

There was an emphasis on having Nix get rid of the football. 

28.7% of his throws were at or behind the line scrimmage. 

Only Patrick Mahomes (30.8%) and Tua Tagovailoa (31.1%) had a higher rate.

Nix led the NFL with 7 passing touchdowns on those throws at or behind the line.

When Nix got rid of the football within 2.5 seconds of the snap, he was 10th in rating (103.9), throwing 15 touchdowns and 1 interception.

His 5.6% touchdown rate on those throws was ninth in the league.

When he was forced to hold the football, some rookie-season warts cropped up.

When holding the ball for over 2.5 seconds, Nix dipped to 21st in rating (84.1), throwing 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

His 4.7% touchdown rate on those throws dipped to 20th in the league while his 3.7% interception rate was 24th.

This will be a tall task for Nix on the road in Buffalo.

The Bills have allowed a league-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt at home this season. 

Sean McDermott has been tough on rookie quarterbacks.

First-year passers have a 3-10 record against the Bills, and one of those wins was this past week with Buffalo sitting starters. 

On the road in Buffalo, that record is 2-9 (0-2 in the playoffs) with those passers completing 58% of their passes for 9 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

Rookie quarterbacks overall in the Wild Card round have not been a complete disaster, going 6-8 (but 3-6 on the road) since the NFL expanded to 32 teams.

In those games, rookie passers have completed 55% of their passes for 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

Jalen Hurts Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

There has been some gamesmanship about Hurts' availability, but he is fully expected to play this weekend after missing the past two games with a concussion.

It was another strong season for Hurts, who ended the year QB5 in fantasy points per game (21.0) despite hardly having his full cupboard of pass catchers for most of the season.

In his first season under Kellen Moore, we have seen progression in this offense.

The Eagles used motion on 50.8% of the dropbacks with Hurts on the field.

That was only in the middle of the league, but in 2023, the Eagles were 28th in pre-snap motion (28% of Hurts’s dropbacks).

That was significant in terms of results.

Hurts was second in the NFL in rating (116.6) when using pre-snap motion, completing 69.3% of his passes (10th) for 8.9 yards per pass attempt (2nd) and a 7.3% touchdown rate (5th).

He threw 13 touchdowns to 2 interceptions using motion. 

Without pre-snap motion, Hurts was 17th in rating (91.0), completing 68.1% of his passes (5th) for 7.2 Y/A (19th) and only a 2.7% touchdown rate (31st).

When these teams played in Week 1, Hurts was 12-of-18 for 172 yards (9.6 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns off pre-snap motion.

Without, he went 8-of-16 for 106 yards (6.6 Y/A) with 2 interceptions.

Hurts made a handful of mistakes in Week 1, but he still finished as QB10 (16.4 points).

He had 3 turnovers, throwing 2 interceptions and fumbling on an early snap by Cam Jurgens, who was in his first game taking over at center for Jason Kelce.

The center exchange was sloppy in the first outing without Kelce, but Hurts still delivered enough explosive plays paired with 33 rushing yards to get by.

Where Green Bay had success was getting pressure on Hurts. 

Under pressure, Hurts was 4-of-13 for 3.8 Y/A with an interception.

That is something that remained static for the rest of the season.

No quarterback was pressured at a higher rate this season than Hurts (40.5% of dropbacks).

Some of that is his own doing since he had the longest time to throw in the NFL this season (3.06 seconds from the snap).

18.8% of his pressures were credited to him holding the ball, which was 35th in the league.

But when pressured, Hurts only completed 46.5% of his passes (20th) for 5.2 Y/A (29th).

If the Packers succeed, it will be by getting to Hurts, who has not played since Dec. 22.

The other avenue for Philadelphia to be successful is in the play-action game.

Green Bay has allowed only 6.4 Y/A on non-play action throws, which is fourth in the league.

However, using play action, the Packers have allowed 8.7 Y/A, dropping to 24th in the league.

Jordan Love Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

It was an odd season for Love.

First, he dealt with multiple injuries.

He suffered an MCL sprain at the end of the Week 1 game between these teams, which sidelined him for two weeks. 

He then suffered a groin injury that forced him from Week 8.

Last week, an elbow sprain removed him from the game.

He is expected to play this week but covered his bases on banged-up body parts.

The Packers also had an approach that made Love look like Russell Wilson.

The Packers' dropback rate was 31st, but when they did throw, Love took layups or threw the rock downfield.

Love threw the ball at the intermediate levels only 16.9% of the time (23rd) and threw deep on 16% of his attempts, the second-highest rate in the league behind Anthony Richardson (22.7%).

As a result, his 63.1% completion rate was 29th in the league.

However, his expected completion rate, due to the types of throws he was taking, was 64.6%, 33rd in the league.

Love still sported a 5.9% touchdown rate, which was higher than his rate in 2023 (5.5%).

He averaged 8.0 Y/A, up from the 7.2 Y/A he had last season.

What will be interesting here is how the loss of Christian Watson impacts the downfield component of this offense.

Without Watson on the field this season, Love has averaged 7.0 Y/A compared to 8.8 Y/A with Watson on the field.

We also have the matchup element in play.

Love was only 17-of-34 passing when these teams played in Week 1, but he had 260 yards and 2 touchdowns, connecting for 160 yards with only 5 completions on throws 10 or more yards downfield.

The Eagles have allowed only a 42.9% completion rate (3rd) and 8.5 Y/A (2nd) on those throws since their bye.

Jayden Daniels Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

Daniels ended up with a sensational rookie season, completing 69% of his passes (6th) for 7.4 Y/A (14th). 

He threw 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. 

On the ground, Daniels added 891 yards and 5 touchdowns.

As good as he closed the season in terms of counting stats, this passing game did slow down from an efficiency stance.

Since Week 10, Daniels has averaged only 6.4 Y/A, 29th in the league.

He has thrown for fewer than 7.0 yards per attempt in six of those eight games.

But that has not slowed him down from a fantasy stance.

He has averaged 24.3 points per game over that span on the strength of positive touchdown regression and rushing output.

During that same period, Daniels' touchdown rate has been 6.3%, which is sixth in the league.

He had a 3.9% touchdown rate prior (20th).

He has still been unlucky in the touchdown department overall.

Daniels has only 3 passing touchdowns on throws that were run in by the pass catcher and not thrown into the end zone.

Only Trevor Lawrence (2) and Cooper Rush (1) had fewer. Neither played the entire season.

He has also tacked on 54 rushing yards per game over that run.

He has a 10.5% scramble rate over those weeks, the highest rate in the league.

Daniels ended Week 1 in this matchup as the QB3 (28.2 points) on the strength of rushing 16 times for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns.

It was not overly sexy from a passing stance, but Daniels delivered fantasy points via his legs in his NFL debut.

Let’s start with the passing.

He only had 7.4 passing points in that opener.

Daniels ended the season with 13.2 passing points per game.

We came into that Week 1 game expecting the Bucs to be aggressive with Daniels, and they did just that.

The Bucs blitzed on 38.5% of the dropbacks, fifth in Week 1.

When blitzed, Daniels was frenetic. 

He completed 4-of-8 passes for 37 yards (4.6 Y/A) when blitzed, but he took off 5 times for 53 yards as well.

Throughout the regular season, Daniels adjusted, posting 8.6 Y/A against the blitz (10th in the league) over the rest of the season.

In Week 1, he threw just 12.5% of his passes 10 yards or further downfield, the lowest rate in the season. 

From that point on, he threw 36.2% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, which was 11th in the league.

We highlighted to open here that Daniels has lost some efficiency and leaned on his rushing and touchdown production.

The Bucs have had several injuries on the back end but have still managed to hold up. 

Over their past seven games, they have allowed 6.4 Y/A (4th) and a 2.8% touchdown rate (2nd).

A good portion of that is opponent-driven (they have faced Tommy DeVito, Cooper Rush, Aidan O’Connell, and Spencer Rattler in that run).

Still, that sample also includes holding Justin Herbert to 195 yards and 5.9 Y/A and the resurgent Bryce Young to 6.5 Y/A and 7.2 Y/A. 

They have not allowed more than 2 passing touchdowns in a game since Week 9.

Baker Mayfield Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

Mayfield had the best season of his career, setting career marks in completions (407), attempts (570), completion rate (71.4%), yards (4,500), and touchdowns (41).

He also ran for a career-high 378 yards with 3 touchdowns.

His 49.4% success rate and 0.17 EPA per dropback were the best of his career.

In his first season with Liam Coen, there was a more significant emphasis on the short passing game.

After averaging 8.6 air yards per throw in 2023 under Dave Canales, Mayfield averaged 7.0 air yards per pass this season.

His average time to throw was 2.62 seconds from the snap, his fastest since his rookie season.

That area is where there was a divide with Mayfield as a passer this year.

When he threw the ball within 2.5 seconds from the snap, Mayfield completed 77.8% of his passes with 27 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

When he held the ball longer than that, he completed 63% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

When these teams played in Week 1, Mayfield averaged 2.37 seconds per throw.

When getting the ball out within 2.5 seconds of the snap in that game, Mayfield was 18-of-21 for 8.9 Y/A and 4 touchdowns.

The quick passing game was an issue for Washington all season.

When quarterbacks got rid of the ball within 2.5 seconds, Washington allowed a league-high 7.7% touchdown rate and 6.7 Y/A (20th).

On throws where quarterbacks held the ball longer, they allowed 7.6 Y/A (11th) and a league-low 1.4% touchdown rate.

The Commanders ended the season 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.451) while Mayfield was third in passing points per attempt (0.547) for fantasy.

All of that is coming with a light runout to end the season for Washington, facing Will Levis, Jake Haener/Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, Michael Penix, and Trey Lance.

Sam Darnold Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

For as strong as a renaissance that Darnold has had this season under Kevin O’Connell, he enters the playoffs on a sour note.

This offense had by far their worst performance of the season in Detroit last week, posting a season-low -14.3 EPA on offense.

19.5% of Darnold’s throws were inaccurate, his second-highest rate in a game this season behind Week 5 in London.

Darnold was pressured on a season-high 48.9% of his dropbacks in Detroit.

Under pressure, he was 4-of-18 passing for 70 yards (3.9 Y/A).

Previously, Darnold had handled the pressure well.

Darnold still has questions entering the postseason, but Sunday night was not the first clunker he has given us.

It was the most recent and in a spot where things were magnified, but we saw him struggle in Week 5 against the Jets and then again in Week 10 against Jacksonville.

He bounced back in both of those outings.

He has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in 12 games this season.

When these teams played in Week 8, Darnold was 18-of-25 (72%) for 240 yards (9.6 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions.

Under pressure in that game, he was 7-of-10 for 95 yards (9.5 Y/A).

Pressure has been the name of the game for this Los Angeles defense.

When they have pressured the quarterback over their past 12 games, the Rams have allowed a 44.2% completion rate (9th) and 4.9 Y/A (4th).

Without pressure, they have allowed a 72.1% completion rate (17th) and 8.0 Y/A (25th).

Another area where Darnold and this passing game can succeed is the play-action game.

Darnold used play action on 29% of his dropbacks, eighth in the league.

Using play action, he was second in the NFL in rating (130.2) behind Lamar Jackson (136.5).

Darnold posted 10.1 Y/A (5th) and a 10.1% touchdown rate (2nd) using play action.

Against play action passes, the Rams have allowed 8.6 Y/A (23rd) and a 6.3% touchdown rate (24th).

When Minnesota used play action in Week 8, Darnold was 8-of-8 passing for 104 yards (13.0 Y/A) with both touchdown passes.

What hurt the Vikings in that first matchup was their struggle on third down, something we highlighted that the Rams have had issues with.

The Vikings were only 2-of-7 on third downs in that game with Darnold going 2-of-6 with only one conversion on his third down passes.

For the season, Minnesota had converted 38.1% of their passes on third downs for a new set of downs, eighth in the league.

Matthew Stafford Wild Card Round Fantasy Outlook

Stafford has had a tale of two seasons centered around the health of this offense.

Since getting Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in Week 8, Stafford is 10th in EPA per dropback (0.16) after sitting 24th through seven games (-0.07).

He has thrown 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions over his final 10 games.

If there are any nits to pick here, this passing game closed the season's final three weeks on a lackluster note.

Stafford threw for fewer than 6.0 Y/A in each of the season's final three games, passing for fewer than 200 yards in all of them.

Stafford completed fewer than 60% of his passes in three of his final five games while throwing for fewer than 200 yards in four.

That was not the case when these teams played in Week 8.

Stafford was 25-of-34 (73.5%) for 279 yards (8.2 Y/A) and 4 touchdowns.

Minnesota only pressured Stafford on 23.5% of his dropbacks in that game, their third-lowest rate of the season.

The only blitzed Stafford on 29.4% of his dropbacks, well below their 38.6% rate on the season.

That was for good reason. When they did blitz Stafford, he was 7-of-10 for 104 yards.

Minnesota must find a way to get to Stafford in the rematch.

When they pressured him in that game, Stafford only threw for 5.9 Y/A with a touchdown and an interception.

Stafford threw for 8.9 Y/A from a clean pocket with 3 touchdowns in that game.

That was the case with Stafford this season.

With a healthy receiving corps, Stafford averaged 8.2 Y/A from a clean pocket with 15 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Under pressure, that dropped to 5.3 Y/A with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

His 56.3 rating under pressure since these teams met was 27th in the league.