The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys Thanksgiving Day game.
|43.32%||22||Opp. Rush %||38.44%||7|
|56.68%||11||Opp. Pass %||61.56%||26|
- Sunday was the first time the Cowboys failed to score an offensive touchdown with Dak Prescott under center for a full game since Week 16 of the 2019 season.
- Derek Carr’s average depth of target has been 6.9 yards downfield since the Week 8 bye (25th) after 9.2 yards prior (sixth).
- The Raiders are 27th in EPA per dropback (-0.168) over this stretch after ranking ninth (0.187)
- The Raiders have scored on 29.0% (9-of-31) of their possessions the past three weeks (26th) after scoring on 43.6% prior (13th).
- The Raiders have led for 11.3% of their second half offensive snaps, 28th in the league.
- Just 22.4% of the Raiders offensive yardage has come via rushing, the second lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Dak Prescott: Prescott is coming off a nightmare performance in Week 10, throwing for a season-low 5.0 yards per pass attempt, zero touchdown passes and three turnovers on his way to 2.6 fantasy points.
Prescott bounced back from a down Week 9 (although he still got there that week for fantasy) to scorch the Falcons, but he will likely be working short both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb this Thursday, which leaves the cupboard fairly bare. Lamb and Cooper have accounted for 36.3% of the Dallas receptions and 44.7% of their receiving yardage this season. The Cowboys have not ruled out the possibility of Lamb being able to play this week, but the short week definitely makes it tight to come back while in concussion protocol. Kicking off the week, we will approach things as if he will be out, but will adjust as more information becomes available approaching Thursday.
On a positive note, Tyron Smith is trending towards returning to field after missing the previous three games.
Prescott has scorched Cover 3 so far this season, completing 77.3% of his passes (third) for 9.5 yards per pass attempt (ninth) and 101.4 passing yards per game (third), but an ounce of salt applied to those rates with the absence of both Lamb and Cooper.
The Raiders have allowed just two quarterbacks to finish higher than QB12 against them this season in Patrick Mahomes (36.2 points) and Jalen Hurts (23.5 points).They are also still the number one defense against passes 15 yards or further downfield (25.0% completion rate).
Structurally, the Cowboys and Prescott are still good enough to produce against anyone, but down two of his top wideouts, Prescott is a lower-end QB1 option this week in a game I expect the Cowboys to rely on a shallow passing attack.
Derek Carr: Carr has come out of the bye with two of his worst games of the season, posting weeks as the QB20 (11.8 points), QB8 (16.4 points), and the QB24 (10.6 points). Carr also has been turnover-prone this season, throwing at least one interception in eight games this season, tied for the league-lead. His 2.4% interception rate is his highest since 2017.
The Cowboys have allowed just one quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) to finish higher than QB17 against them over their past six games with Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, and Mac Jones as part of the sample. Carr has been hurt by the loss of the vertical component of this offense and is a boom-or-bust QB2.
Ezekiel Elliott (TRUST): After averaging 117.4 total yards per game Weeks 2-6, Elliott has posted 73, 76, 56, and 68 yards over his past four games. After rushing for 110 yards back in Week 5, Elliott has 69 yards rushing or fewer in the five games since, rushing 66 times for 243 yards (3.7 YPC). With Tyron Smith out of the lineup, Elliott has 33 carries for 124 yards.
One ray of sunshine is Elliott has 23 catches over those five games with depressed rushing output after nine catches over his first five games of the season.
Elliott still has a complete grasp on the money touches for the Cowboys. He has 11 opportunities inside of the 5-yard line this season compared to just one for Tony Pollard.
Elliott also has a great matchup in a game where the Cowboys should skew run centric as home favorites while also down a pair of star wideouts. The Raiders are allowing 4.5 YPC (24th), 15.2 rushing points (28th), and 11.7 receiving points per game (22nd) to opposing backs while allowing back-to-back top-five scorers to lead backs.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has yet to reach 100 total yards yet in a game this season or post an RB1 scoring week. He has been completely scripted out of the past two games, rushing the ball just seven (16 yards) and nine (37 yards) times. The Raiders have not run the ball this entire season, ranking 29th in expected points added on the ground (-25.7) and are 28th in rushing yardage per game (83.7 yards).
On the bright side, Jacobs is averaging a career-high 3.5 catches per game and has four or more catches in each of his past three games. He is coming off a career-high seven targets. The downside here is that he is averaging a career-low 6.2 yards per catch and has turned 14 catches the past three games into 63 yards receiving.
The Cowboys are allowing 4.5 YPC (25th) to backs, but also face the eighth fewest carries per game (18.9) from opposing backfields. They are 20th in receptions allowed per game (5.3) to backs to give Jacobs the same volume-based RB2 outlook he has had as a road underdog, looking for his first touchdown since Week 7.
Tony Pollard: Pollard has been a top-20 back in each of the past two games, posting 90 and 70 yards, which is more than Elliott in each game. Although he had 70 yards on Sunday, he still had just nine touches and has hit double-digit touches in just one of the past four weeks.
That should change if Dallas is coming in without Lamb and Cooper since Pollard would be one their most explosive playmakers left in the cupboard, Dallas is home favorites, and the Raiders are an opponent that can be run on while effectively using backs in space against. The downside is that even if we get a spike in usage, Pollard is a longer shot to reach the end zone as he only has one touchdown on the year and one touch inside of the 5-yard line, leaving him as a FLEX option.
Michael Gallup: Gallup was already pressed into an elevated role with Amari Cooper out last week and then Dallas lost CeeDee Lamb after the first half, pushing Gallup up to the lead receiver in the offense. Gallup received 10 targets (23.8%), but was largely nondescript, catching five of them for 44 yards. Gallup was in route on 46 of the 48 dropbacks. With that kind of usage attached to what still is a good offense despite last week’s output, Gallup is an upside WR2 option.
The Raiders are mid-pack against opposing lead wideouts, allowing 14.1 points per game (18th) to those options, but they are 30th in receptions allowed per game (6.0) to those lead wideouts.
Cowboys WRs: With all of the moving parts in the offense last week at the position, both Noah Brown and Cedrick Wilson ran 31 pass routes (64.6%). Wilson saw seven targets come in his direction, but put multiple passes down, securing just four for 36 yards. Brown did the same, catching neither of his two targets. Wilson has at least flashed for us this season, although his only top-40 scoring week came with a touchdown. Coming off matching a season-high in targets, Wilson is the go-to WR5 and single-game DFS dart throw.
Hunter Renfrow: After a season-high 26.5% target share in Week 10, Renfrow saw just four targets come in his direction, catching all four for 30 yards.
All four of Renfrow’s top-24 scoring weeks have come in his games with a touchdown as he has not posted more than 58 yards in each of his past seven games with a season-high of 77 yards. Renfrow still has eight games with five or more catches to provide solid WR3/FLEX appeal in PPR formats but needs to reach the end zone to have relevancy in non-PPR formats.
Darren Waller (TRUST): Waller is coming off a season-high 116 yards, catching 7-of-8 targets. He received 32.0% of the team targets, his highest rate since his high-volume Week 1 performance. Coming out of the bye, Waller has had a pair of games with seven catches, but he still has not found the end zone since Week 4.
Dallas has struggled against opposing tight ends this year, allowing a 74.7% catch rate (26th) and 8.7 yards per target (29th) to the position. Tight ends have scored 20.7% of the points allowed by the Cowboys, the eighth-highest rate.
Dalton Schultz (TRUST): Schultz also benefited from the absences in the offense last week, catching 6-of-8 targets for 53 yards. His 19.1% target share was the highest rate of targets Schultz had in a game since Week 5.
The Raiders are another team vulnerable to active tight ends, seeing 8.8 targets per game (third-most) to the position, allowing 7.6 yards per target (18th) and a 6.8% touchdown rate (25th) to the position.
More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: