The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Sunday Night Football game.
|41.55%||19||Opp. Rush %||35.28%||2|
|58.45%||14||Opp. Pass %||64.72%||31|
- The Ravens are averaging 62.4 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, the most in the league.
- Cleveland is averaging 55.5 more rushing yards than their opponent, second in the league.
- 60.7% of the points scored by the Browns have come in the first half this season, the highest rate in the league.
- Baltimore is 31st in the league in sack differential (-12).
- The Ravens are allowing a gain of 20 or more yards once every 11.1 defensive plays, the highest rate in the league.
- Opponents have converted 42.9% (12-of-28) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns against the Ravens, the lowest rate in the league.
- 39.3% (11-of-28) of the Cleveland offensive touchdowns are via passing, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Ravens are averaging 6.0 yards per play on first and second down (seventh in the league) as opposed to 4.0 yards per play on third down (30th).
- Cleveland is allowing 5.0 yards per play on first and second down (third) as opposed to allowing 6.7 yards per play on third down (31st).
Trust = spike production for that player
Lamar Jackson: Jackson sat out last game versus Chicago after dealing with an illness throughout the week. When we last saw Jackson back on Thursday night in Week 10, he was getting his faced blitzed off by the Miami Dolphins.
After a hot start as a passer, Jackson has now posted 6.5 yards per pass attempt or fewer in three of his past four starts. Over the past four games, Jackson has completed 61.3% of his passes for 6.5 Y/A compared to a 67.1% completion rate and 9.1 Y/A prior.
As hinted at, teams have gotten hyper-aggressive blitzing Jackson, sending extra defenders on 42.1% of his dropbacks over that span, the highest rate in the league (30.8% prior). Against the blitz on the year, Jackson is averaging 7.1 Y/A with just three touchdown passes as opposed to 8.5 Y/A and 11 touchdown passes when not blitzed.
Cleveland is not a blitz-heavy team, ranking 25th in the league (21.1%) and like to get home with their front. Despite not sending extra defenders, they are still eighth in pressure rate (26.5%).
The Browns have only faced three quarterbacks that are top-12 in points per game and it did not go well for them in those games against Patrick Mahomes (33.3 points), Justin Herbert (42.8 points), and Kyler Murray (25.8 points). Jackson has carried some volatility for ceiling performances this season, but his floor remains as high as anyone’s as a QB1.
Baker Mayfield: Through 10 games, Mayfield has just two weeks finishing in the top half of weekly scoring at the quarterback position. He is clearly playing hurt, with limited weaponry in the passing game, and has a lot of instability in his week-to-week performances. After averaging 10.4 yards per pass attempt three weeks ago against the Bengals, Mayfield has since thrown for 3.5 Y/A and 6.1 Y/A against the Patriots and Lions.
The Ravens are an all-or-nothing defense. They are fourth in the league in completion rate allowed (60.4%), but 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.2 Y/A) and dead las tin yards allowed per completion (13.5 yards) because they are so aggressive and give up chunk plays. Mayfield is averaging 9.3 Y/A against the blitz this season (seventh), but he has not given us any reason to handle him as more than a QB2 option.
Nick Chubb: Chubb is coming off a season-high 24 touches for 144 yards and a touchdown against the Lions. Chubb handled 75% of the backfield touches, his highest rate in a game this season. We will be getting Kareem Hunt back this week for the first time since Week 6. Chubb handled 53.7% of the backfield touches and lived on rushing efficiency when he shared a backfield this season with Hunt.
The Ravens are also an all-or-nothing run defense. Baltimore leads the NFL in percentage of runs stopped for zero yardage gained (28.2%) and rate of runs to gain five or more yards (28.2%), but when they do give up gains, they are chunk runs as they rank 28th in rate of carries to gain 10 or more yards (14.1%), which account for 59.4% of the rushing yardage they allow. Chubb leads the NFL in rate of carries to gain 10 or more yards (20.4%) which account for 61.5% of his yardage on the ground.
Chubb is a high-end RB1 inf we don’t see Hunt yet and a rushing-dependent RB1 in a shared backfield.
Devonta Freeman: Freeman has been a top-30 scorer in each of his past five games and has established himself as the headpin in the Baltimore backfield. Freeman has handled 81.3% and 62.9% of the backfield touches the past two weeks without and with Latavius Murray in the lineup.
Freeman has lived a bit on touchdown equity, however. He has rushed for fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in three of his past five games and his season-high is 83 total yards in a game but has found the end zone in four of the past five games. In his one game failing to score, he was the RB30.
The Browns have sagged to 16th in yards allowed per carry (4.2 YPC) to backs on a string of giving up five consecutive RB1 scoring weeks to D’Andre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, and Javonte Williams. Freeman is a floor-based FLEX whose ceiling is tied to finding the end zone.
Kareem Hunt: Hunt is expecting to return this Sunday after missing the previous five games with a calf injury. Prior to injury, Hunt was handling 40.7% of the backfield touches while running a pass routes on 40.9% of the dropbacks in the games he played alongside Nick Chubb. Hunt averaged 14.4 touches for 88.8 yards in those games, but was elevated as an RB2 option on the strength of five rushing touchdowns. Hunt was likely due scoring regression on the ground, but is right on the line of the RB2/RB3 options returning from injury.
Marquise Brown: Brown also sat out Week 12 with a thigh injury that we will have to monitor this week, especially coming off the longer layoff playing on Thursday night in Week 11. Brown is a sports car type of wideout, and we want him at optimal conditions.
Brown was held to six catches for 37 yards in Week 11, but he did see another 13 targets come in his direction, his third straight game with double-digit targets. Brown has now seen 34.2%, 29.3%, and 31.7% of the team targets over the past three games played. Brown now has 82 targets through nine games, 18 short of his career-high.
Carrying a 14.2-yard average depth of target, no player with a higher aDOT than Brown has more targets than he does this season.
The Browns have been a defense we have targeted for big receiving performances as they rank 30th in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 options (17.6). Follow the news throughout the week on Brown’s availability, but if he is logging full practices by the end of the week go right back to him as a high-ceiling WR2.
Rashod Bateman: Bateman could not survive in the offense that wasn’t helmed by Lamar Jackson, catching 3-of-6 targets for 29 yards on Sunday. With Brown sidelined, Bateman did run a pass route on a season-high 81.8% of the team dropbacks, which was slightly ahead of Sammy Watkins (79.6%). We want Bateman to distance himself as the clear WR2 in the offense down the stretch.
Bateman was coming off a string of three straight top-36 weeks prior to last week when Jackson sat out, but he also has not hit 20% of the team targets in a game since his first game played in Week 6, leaving him as a floor-based WR4.
Browns WRs: The Browns are beat up at wide receiver. Jarvis Landry is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to 65% of the snaps on Sunday. Kevin Stefanski said that Landry is going to play through that injury.
Donovan Peoples-Jones missed last week’s game with a groin injury.
With their top wide receivers out or limited, Ja’Marcus Bradley led the group in snaps (74%) followed by Rashard Higgins (72%) with Higgins leading the team in pass routes (25) followed by Bradley (24).
Landry still paced the group with eight targets and a 28.6% target share. He has had 25.5% of the targets since returning in Week 7 but has also topped 37 yards receiving in just one of those five games with a high of 65 yards.
The theme is the Ravens are an all-or-nothing defense and that holds up here. Baltimore is allowing a 56.7% catch rate to opposing wideouts (second) and 11.5 receptions per game to the position (seventh) but are dead last in yards allowed per catch (15.4 yards).
That style would benefit Peoples-Jones the most as a boom-or-bust FLEX should he be ready to return with Landry as a floor-based WR4.
Mark Andrews: Andrews served as Tyler Huntley’s binky last week, seeing 10 targets (27.8%), coming away with eight catches for 73 yards. That was the second-highest target share Andrews has seen in a game this season, which not only came with Huntley under center, but also with the Ravens missing Marquise Brown.
Andrews has been a top-six scoring tight in five of his past eight games played and is a mainstay at the top of the TE1 options.
The Browns have been a good unit against opposing tight ends, allowing 6.7 yards per target (ninth), but are 30th in the league in touchdown rate (8.6%) to the position.
Browns TEs: Cleveland tight ends have combined for three TE1 scoring weeks through nine games, with two coming from David Njoku and the third from Austin Hooper.
Hooper is coming off a season-high seven targets (4-53-0) last week (25%) after five (16.1%) in Week 10 although he and Njoku were still neck-and-neck in routes run (18-16 in favor of Hooper) last week after Njoku edged Hooper 24-23 the week prior.
The Ravens have been a team prone to giving production to tight ends if chasing a TE2 here or a dart throw in single-game DFS. Baltimore is 28th in receptions (5.9) and 31st in yardage (68.9 yards) allowed per game to tight ends with six touchdowns allowed to the position.
More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
CHI at DET | LVR at DAL | BUF at NO | TEN at NE | ATL at JAX | CAR at MIA | PHI at NYG | TB at IND | PIT at CIN | NYJ at HOU | LAC at DEN | LAR at GB | MIN at SF | CLE at BAL | SEA at WFT