The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions Thanksgiving Day game.
|45.18%||27||Opp. Rush %||50.00%||32|
|54.82%||6||Opp. Pass %||50.00%||1|
- The Lions (-26.9 points) and Bears (-26.7 points) are 32nd and 31st in the league in expected points added via their passing offense this season.
- Detroit is averaging 2.1 fewer yards per pass attempt than their opponents, the worst differential in the league.
- The Bears are last in the league in non-passing fantasy points per game (57.4) while the Lions are 27th (67.3).
- Opponents have converted 79.3% (23-of-29) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns against the Lions, the highest rate in the league.
- The Lions have converted 47.8% (11-of-23) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, 30th in the league.
- 60.9% of the Detroit receiving yardage has come after the catch, the highest rate in the league.
- 36.9% of the Chicago receiving yardage has come after the catch, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Jared Goff: After missing last week’s game with an oblique injury, Goff was a projected limited participant during the walkthrough on Monday. We will have to monitor his availability on a short week, but Tim Boyle’s performance on Sunday actually made us miss Goff.
Goff has the league’s lowest completion rate on throws 15 yards or further downfield, connecting on 12-of-48 (25.0%) of those attempts. The league average is 42.6%.
Goff has not finished higher than QB23 in a week since Week 2 and has even scored single-digit points in five of his past seven games since he has five games without a touchdown pass over that span. After passing for 114 yards and posting 4.6 yards per attempt when we last saw him in Week 10, Goff is averaging just 9.6 yards per completion (ahead of only Jacoby Brisset) and is last in air yards per completion (3.6 yards).
When these teams met in Week 4, Goff completed 24-of-38 passes for 299 yards and a pair of scores, good for 16.8 fantasy points, which was his highest-scoring game over his past six games played. The Bears are no defense to be scared of, ranking 26th in points allowed per pass attempt (0.49), 27th in yards allowed per attempt (7.7 Y/A), and 25th in yards allowed per completion (11.8 yards).
Goff is only a back-end QB2 for 2QB formats, but after facing the Vikings, Bengals, Rams, Eagles, and Steelers since his last start against Chicago, this will be as good of an outlook he will have in nearly two months if he returns to the field healthy.
Andy Dalton: Dalton is back in as the starter after Justin Fields sustained a rib injury last weekend. In relief of Fields, Dalton stepped in to complete 11-of-23 passes for 201 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Dalton actually had a 12.0 average depth of target (third in the league last week) after a minuscule 4.6-yard aDOT in his limited sample earlier in the season.
Dalton is definitely one of the top-six quarterbacks on the Thanksgiving slate, but nobody is elevating him past being a matchup-based option in 2QB formats. The Lions are 31st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.52), 31st in yards allowed per attempt (8.3 Y/A), and 31st in yards allowed per completion (12.7 yards).
David Montgomery (TRUST): Montgomery only put up 67 yards on 15 touches Sunday against the Ravens, but he still dominated the backfield. Montgomery played 95% of the snaps and handled 15-of-16 backfield touches. Since returning to action, Monty has 30 of the 35 touches among Chicago backs.
This week he’ll trade in that tough draw for one of the best in the league for opposing backs. Detroit is allowing 17.5 rushing points per game (30th) to backs while backfields have scored a league-high 62.9% of the touchdowns scored against the Lions. When these teams met in Week 4, Montgomery racked up 106 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries in a game that he exited early due to injury.
D’Andre Swift: After living nearly entirely on receiving work through nine weeks, Swift has tapped into a heavy workload running the rock to get his fantasy points. Over the past two weeks, Swift has 130 yards (on 33 carries) and 136 yards (14 carries) on the ground while catching just six passes for five yards. Last week’s damage came on the strength of a 57-yard touchdown run, the longest carry of his early career.
With Jamaal Williams returning the lineup, Swift reverted back his usage prior, playing 73% of the snaps and handling 62.9% of the backfield touches, which was 17th among all backs in Week 11.
When these teams played in Week 4, Swift had his worst game of the season, totaling 49 yards on 12 touches. The Bears have since struggled to defend backs on the ground, currently allowing 4.5 yards per carry (23rd) and 14.7 rushing points (24th), but they are third in the league in allowing 8.2 receiving points per game to backs. Swift has one of the odder resumes of the season, but he does regularly end up there in the end more than not as a fringe RB1 option.
Darnell Mooney (TRUST): Operating as the focal point of the passing game for the first time in his career last week with Allen Robinson sidelined, Mooney received a career-high 16 targets (48.5% of the team total). He managed to only connect on securing five of them, but made those five catches count for 121 yards, including a 60-yard screen pass that he housed for his third receiving touchdown on the season.
With Robinson trending to be doubtful again on a short week, Mooney is set up for another large target share against a Lions defense that is facing just 17.8 targets per game (third-fewest) to opposing wideouts but are allowing 9.2 yards per target (29th) and 14.2 yards per catch (28th) to wideouts. That includes Mooney himself grabbing 5-of-7 targets for 125 yards when these teams played in Week 4.
Lions WRs: 10 games into the year and the Detroit wide receiving corps have combined to produce seven top-36 scoring weeks on the season with three from Kalif Raymond, two from Amon-Ra St. Brown, and two from Quintez Cephus.
Two of them came in this Week 4 matchup when Raymond caught 3-of-6 targets for 46 yards and two touchdowns while St. Brown grabbed 6-of-8 targets for 70 yards, his season-high.
Newly added Josh Reynolds stepped in last week and ran a route on a team-high 95.7% of the team dropbacks, with Raymond taking a reduced role (78.3%) and St. Brown still locking down his WR2 and slot role (91.3%). St. Brown led the group with four targets, but only managed to produce 18 yards.
The Bears are another team that has not faced many wide receiver targets (18.6 per game, eighth-fewest) but are allowing efficiency on those looks, ranking dead last in yards allowed per target (9.6 yards), 31st in yards allowed per catch (14.4 yards) and 30th in touchdown rate (6.5%) to opposing wideouts.
St. Brown carries some floor-based appeal as a WR4 in PPR formats with Reynolds and Raymond as Hail Mary dart throws on the Thursday DFS slate.
Marquise Goodwin: Goodwin operated as the WR2 with Robinson out, running a route on 76.3% of the dropbacks. Goodwin saw eight targets (24.2%) come his way, snagging four of them for 104 yards, capped off with a 49-yard touchdown grab.
The Lions are 27th in completion rate allowed on targets over 15 yards downfield (49.2%) to give Goodwin life as a boom-or-bust WR4 and Thanksgiving Slate play if Robinson is sidelined again.
T.J. Hockenson: After a goose-egg in Week 10, Hockenson rebounded in context to catch 6-of-8 targets for 51 yards. Those eight targets were 34.8% of the team total, giving Hockenson 28.2% or more of the team targets in four of his past five games with at least eight or more actual counting targets in four of those games. Despite the high share of team usage, Hockenson is still nickel and diming his way with 9.2 yards per catch and has not scored since Week 2.
Chicago has is seventh in targets faced per game to tight ends (6.3), but they also are allowing 5.4 yards per target (third), a 61.9% catch rate (sixth), and a 4.8% touchdown rate. That includes Hockenson catching 4-of-8 targets for 42 yards in their matchup earlier in the season.
Hockenson gets usage that is at the front end of the position, but the offensive attachment he carries drags him down a volume-based TE1 that is better in PPR formats.
Cole Kmet: After a solid stretch of seeing at least 17% of the team targets in seven consecutive games, Kmet had just two targets come in his direction on Sunday, catching one of them for 12 yards. Kmet still played 90% of the snaps, so his targets should bounce back, but he has not cleared 49 yards just once on the season while he still has yet to find the end zone. Kmet played 98% of the snaps against the Lions in Week 4, catching 1-of-3 targets for six yards.
Dalton has also targeted Kmet just eight times on his targets (11.1%) compared to the 19.7% target share he had with Fields under center. That is a small sample, but Kmet is only a TE2 dart throw in seasonal leagues and DFS.
More Week 12 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: