The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 4 Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions Sunday afternoon game.

SeattleRank@DetroitRank
6Spread-6
22Implied Total28
15.728Points/Gm31.72
23.320Points All./Gm3132
5530Plays/Gm67.710
62.712Opp. Plays/Gm70.329
5.417Off. Yards/Play66
6.329Def. Yards/Play5.823
33.94%26Rush%42.86%13
66.06%7Pass%57.14%20
51.06%31Opp. Rush %40.28%17
48.94%2Opp. Pass %59.72%16
  • Games involving the Lions have averaged a league-high 62.7 combined points through three weeks.
  • Just 7.4% of the drives against Seattle have ended without a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in the league. League rate is 31.6%.
  • 49.4% of the carries against Detroit have gained five or more yards, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of Detroit is 36.7%.
  • 38.0% of the passing plays against the Seahawks have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the second-highest rate in the league behind Arizona (43.8%).
  • Detroit has scored 10 touchdowns in the red zone, the most in the NFL through three weeks.
  • Seattle is the only team in the league yet to run an offensive play inside of the opponent’s 5-yard line or with the goal to go.
  • The Seahawks have not scored a touchdown on offense in the second half of a game this season, the only team in the league remaining.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jared Goff: Goff has opened the season with QB17, QB7, and QB20 scoring weeks against the Eagles, Commanders, and Vikings. Goff has failed to throw for more than 7.5 yards per attempt in any of his three starts as he sits 28th in completion rate (58.9%) and 20th in yards per attempt (6.9 Y/A) through three weeks.

If there was ever a spot for Goff to have one of his better outlooks, this would be it at home against a Seattle defense that is allowing a league-high 8.8 yards per pass attempt and yards per completion (13.2 yards). The only thing that has saved Seattle from being worse in a fantasy sense to quarterbacks is that they have allowed a 3.5% touchdown rate (12th). Goff is also attached to one of the highest team totals of the week.

While this is a strong spot to use Goff as matchup QB2 or streamer for those who have someone like Tom Brady to open the season, the loss of Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift do remove to upside options from his disposal, lowering his ceiling.

Geno Smith: Smith is coming off his best game of the season for fantasy, finishing as the QB7 (18.9 points). Smith leads the NFL in completion rate (77.5%) and completion rate over expectation (+12.2%). Smith has only thrown the ball 20 yards or further on 7.8% of his throws (25th) and all of his touchdowns this season have come in the first half of games, but he does have two weeks as the QB15 or better now through three games.

Smith has another positive setup here to be a matchup-based QB2 against a Detroit defense that has allowed 17.9 passing points per game (24th) to open the season, allowing a top-10 scoring week to all of Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz, and Kirk Cousins.

One other potential positive for Smith if it sticks is that Seattle was much more aggressive with tempo in Week 3. After ranking 21st in seconds per play Weeks 1-2, Seattle was 13th in Week 3. 

Running Back

Jamaal Williams (TRUST): Williams is set up to carry the workload in the Detroit backfield for the short term with D’Andre Swift expected to miss the next few weeks at minimum with a shoulder injury. 

Williams turned 22 touches into 107 yards and a pair of touchdowns this past week, playing a season-high 35 snaps.

Williams played three games without Swift active or forced from the game early a year ago, accruing 20, 18, and 19 touches for 83, 80, and 77 yards. 

Williams could not ask for a better spot on paper than this one to rack up close to 20 touches. Not only is he a home favorite, but Seattle has also been trampled versus the run, allowing 5.1 yards per carry to backs (26th) to go along with 17.1 rushing points per game to backfields (30th).  

Rashaad Penny: A week after a muddy backfield split, Penny was the clear feature back for Seattle last week against the Falcons, playing 49 snaps (69%) compared to 15 snaps for DeeJay Dallas and just nine for Kenneth Walker.

Penny only managed 69 yards on 15 touches in the game, so there is still some fragility here that Walker could see more week at any given time. We also have Seattle as road underdogs while Penny has just three catches for 10 yards on the season to throw a potential wrench in things, but this is a great matchup for opposing backs.

Detroit is in the same spot as a year ago, where we circled them weekly as a backfield matchup to target. The Lions have allowed 21.6 rushing points per game to opposing backfields (31st). They have allowed a league-high six rushing touchdowns to backs, with multiple rushing touchdowns in two of the three games this season. Penny posted 185 yards and two touchdowns when these teams played a year ago in Week 17.

The potential that Walker gets more work paired with Penny being a road dog cast a slight shadow here, but Penny is a matchup-based RB2/FLEX with plenty of DFS tournament appeal in Week 3.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf: Metcalf had his best fantasy day of the early season last week, catching 5-of-12 targets for 64 yards and his first touchdown of the year. While the efficiency and yardage were still lacking, Metcalf’s 27.9% target share was a season-high. 

Metcalf also carried an average depth of target of 14.1 yards with 40.2% of the team air yards, both season highs. 

Metcalf does run 84.2% of his routes out wide, where the Lions have been stingy the past two weeks due to the elevated play of Jeffrey Okudah. The Lions also do play man coverage at the league’s highest rate (46.8% of pass plays). Metcalf has received over 20% of the team targets in every game, but he is still on the touchdown-dependent WR3/FLEX line with Lockett having a matchup advantage again.

Tyler Lockett (TRUST): Lockett is coming off back-to-back top-20 scoring weeks, posting games of 9-107-0 and 9-76-0 with 11 targets in each game. 

Lockett has had a matchup advantage between the Seattle wideouts in each of the past two games and he draws another objectively better matchup between him and Metcalf. Lockett runs 42% of his routes in the slot, where he has caught 12-of-14 targets for 113 yards. In the past two weeks, Detroit has allowed 11-143-2 to opposing slot wide receivers. 

Josh Reynolds: Reynolds will be elevated to the lead target in this receiving room with both Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark ruled out.

Reynolds has already been in route on 84.9% of the team dropbacks this season as the Lions have operated as a based 11 personnel team. He has posted games of 3-38-1 and 6-96-0. Last week, Reynolds had a season-high 10 targets after six combined through two weeks. 

Seattle has allowed 9.4 yards per target (29th) and a league-high 16.2 yards per catch to opposing receivers.  

Reynolds is a WR4/FLEX while we should see Kalif Raymond play in the slot for St. Brown while Quintez Cephus logs playing time filling in for Chark.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson was able to get into the end zone for the first time this season this past week, but all that did was smooth out a low-end TE1 scoring week since he managed to catch just 3-of-4 targets for 18 yards to go along with it. 

Three games in, Hockenson has 82 receiving yards, averaging just 4.6 yards per target. 

Hockenson has been a touchdown or bust option in that lower-end TE1 range, but if looking for matchup enticement, Seattle has allowed 10.0 yards per target (31st) and a 5.6% touchdown rate (22nd) to opposing tight ends through three games while the amount of injuries the Detroit wide receivers have pushes targets towards Hockenson.

Will Dissly: Dissly found the end zone for the second time in three games last, but he ran a route on just 41.3% of the team dropbacks. Dissly has now posted a top-12 scoring week in two of the first three games, but also has lived on those scores as he was the TE41 in the week he did not score. Dissly has six catches for 77 yards, failing to receive more than three targets in a game this season.

More Week 4 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

MIA at CIN | MIN vs NO | BUF at BAL | CHI at NYG | CLE at ATL | JAX at PHI | NYJ at PIT | TEN at IND | LAC at HOU | SEA at DET | WAS at DAL | ARI at CAR | DEN at LVR | NE at GB | KC at TB | LAR at SF