The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 4 Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon game.
|39.89%||16||Opp. Rush %||45.13%||24|
|60.11%||17||Opp. Pass %||54.87%||9|
- Opponents are averaging 14.0 red zone plays per game versus Tennessee, the most in the league.
- Tennessee has run just 14 total red zone plays themselves, 31st in the league.
- The Colts have scored on 22.9% (8-of-35) of their drives, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Titans have scored a touchdown on 1-of-18 (5.6%) possessions in the second half, 31st in the league.
- Just 16.7% of the Tennessee rushing attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, 31st in the league. League average is 25.6%.
- The Colts are allowing a league-low 2.7 yards per carry on first down rushing attempts.
- 66.8% of the rushing yardage allowed by the Titans has come on carries of 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill has two top-10 scoring weeks orbiting a complete dud against Buffalo on Monday night in Week 2. A 1-yard rushing score aided his QB8 scoring week (18.8 points), but Tannehill was efficient as a passer (9.8 Y/A) on 27 passes, channeling some of the production we had seen from him over the 2019-2021 seasons.
With Tannehill, it is all about keeping him clean. Under pressure, he has completed 14-of-27 passes (51.9%) for 6.7 Y/A. When kept clean, Tannehill is 36-of-53 (67.9%) with 8.8 Y/A. When these teams met twice in 2021, Tannehill was just 10-of-16 for 5.3 Y/A with one touchdown under pressure but was 31-of-44 for 8.6 Y/A with five touchdowns when kept clean. Tannehill threw three touchdown passes in each meeting.
The Colts are 29th in the NFL in pressure rate (25.2%) through three weeks while they are just 28th in blitz rate (17.0%).
The Colts have opened the year 21st in passing points allowed (16.5 per game) to Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence, and Patrick Mahomes.
Tannehill is always tough to fully trust as a 1QB streamer because he relies so heavily on efficiency to get there for fantasy but given his history versus the Colts paired with the lack of pressure Indianapolis is creating defensively, Tannehill is a viable QB2.
Matt Ryan: Ryan has yet to finish a week higher than QB15 through three weeks. Opening the year with 7.0 yards per pass attempt or fewer in all three games, Ryan currently sits 26th in the league in EPA per dropback (-0.13) and 23rd in yards per attempt (6.6 Y/A). Ryan is the QB18 in expected points but is 37th in points scored compared to expectation (-13.5).
Ryan lives as a QB2, but he is a spot to get going against a Tennessee defense that is allowing 20.8 passing points per game (30th).
Jonathan Taylor: Taylor has closed the past two weeks as the RB38 and RB23. While his final line from Sunday was disappointing in producing 91 yards on 24 touches, the peripheral usage was still extremely strong as he accounted for 75% of the backfield touches, 44.5% of the team touches, and ran a pass route on 58.1% of the team dropbacks.
Taylor will look to get back on track against a Tennessee run defense that has been boom or bust to open the year. Just 32.9% of the carries against Tennessee have gained five or more yards (sixth in the league), but 20.5% have gained 10 or more yards (32nd) while they are 31st in explosive rushing yardage allowed (293 yards). Taylor has yet to break off one of his patented big gains on the ground, so this would be a good spot to hit a long one.
During his RB1 campaign in 2021, Taylor rushed 26 times for 134 yards with four catches for 60 yards in his two games against the Titans.
Keep Taylor locked into lineups as an RB1.
Derrick Henry: Henry turned in his best game of the season this past week, turning 25 touches into 143 yards and a score against the Raiders. Ryan Tannehill snaked a 1-yard touchdown on a sneak, potentially thwarting another score for the Big Dog.
Henry still was still driven by volume on the ground (20 carries for 85 yards) but catching 5-of-6 targets for 58 yards was a major pro if we can get that kind of usage moving forward. Those six targets matched a career-high. While encouraging, they also could be fleeting. Henry only ran 13 pass routes in the game, so those types of targets need to be by design rather than falling into them based on actual passing opportunity.
We will want those targets to hang around because the Colts are allowing a league-low 2.51 YPC to running backs after ranking eighth in that department in 2021 (3.99 YPC). In two games against the Colts a year ago, Henry rushed 56 times for 181 yards (3.2 YPC), but had 31 and 28 touches in those games, which keeps Henry in play as a volume-based RB1.
Michael Pittman (TRUST): Pittman has games of 9-121-1 and 8-72-0 in his two games played this season. Receiving 26.5% and 25.0% of the team targets in those games, Pittman has tallied 22 targets in the passing game while the rest of the Indianapolis wide receivers have 22 combined.
Pittman gets a strong matchup here against a Tennessee pass defense that has allowed a league-high 9.9 yards per target to opposing wide receivers to go along with a 9.7% touchdown rate (31st).
Robert Woods: Woods has yet to finish a week inside of the top-40 scorers among wide receivers, but the past couple of games have provided some signs of life. After a 7.1% target rate in Week 1, Woods has received target shares of 22.7% (4-39-0) and 34.6% (4-85-0) the past two games. Woods also ran a route on a season-high 89.3% of the team dropbacks in Week 3.
While encouraging, Woods is still a WR4/FLEX against a Colts defense allowing 7.6 yards per target (ninth) and 1.58 points per target (eighth) to opposing wide receivers.
Treylon Burks: Burks did not stuff the stat sheet last week, but his playing time was a major step in the right direction. Burks caught just 1-of-2 targets for 13 yards while rushing once for eight yards, but he played a season-high 69% of the snaps after rates of 37% and 45% in the opening two games. Burks also ran a pass route on 96.4% of the team dropbacks after rates of 37.1% and 60.7% the first two weeks.
Burks still takes a step of faith for actual production as a WR4/FLEX but getting established as a full-time wide receiver was the first hurdle he needed to clear.
Colts WRs: Behind Pittman, we saw the Colts still get Parris Campbell a lot of exercise on Sunday. Campbell ran a route on 88.4% of the dropbacks but managed just two catches for 10 yards. He continues to operate as the clear WR2 in this offense but has just five catches for 47 yards through three games.
Alec Pierce (46.5% route rate) and Ashton Dulin (20.9%) each logged time 3WR sets. Pierce (3-61-0 on five targets) is the player to watch here as he should push Campbell for playing time in 2WR sets sooner than later just as Burks did for the Titans.
Colts TEs: The Colts continue to use multiple tight ends every week. Mo Alie-Cox led the team in snaps (42) while Kyle Granson played 30, but it was rookie Jelani Woods who maximized his opportunities on Sunday, catching 2-of-3 targets for 1-yard and 12-yard touchdowns.
Woods only played 16 snaps and ran 11 pass routes, so this situation is only getting muddier. Neither Alie-Cox nor Granson has done much with their opportunity to date so Woods can carve into a red zone role and make this a completely hands-off tight end room as all are touchdown-or-bust options.
Titans TEs: This tight end situation is not much better as Geoff Swaim played 40 snaps compared to 24 for Austin Hooper on Sunday.
Through three games, Swaim has caught 6-of-7 targets for 38 yards and a touchdown while Hooper has reeled in 4-of-8 targets for 44 yards.
Neither Swaim nor Hooper is more than an option that we hope catches a pass while standing in the end zone, but the Colts have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends through three games to go along with a 12.5% touchdown rate (30th).
More Week 4 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: