Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction, Prop Bets & Best Bets for Super Bowl 59

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. Eagles covered in our Super Bowl 59 Hub.

Eagles vs. Chiefs Prediction for Super Bowl 59:

The Chiefs are predicted to win Super Bowl 59 with a 54.5% implied probability based on current betting lines.

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Keys to Victory in Super Bowl 59

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 59 Report, a 67-page analysis of the Chiefs vs. Eagles that looks at the big game from every angle. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $100 off using promo code SHARP100.

How the Kansas City Chiefs Can Win Super Bowl 59:

• Red Zone Success
• Third Down Success
• Short Passing Game

Red Zone Success

While the Chiefs offense has been the #2 best in the NFL this year at driving the ball into the red zone, their biggest trouble has been scoring when there.

Their red zone TD rate is only 53.8%, an all-time low for the Chiefs under Andy Reid.

I expected the Chiefs would be able to drive the ball on the Bills in the AFC Championship game and then take those drives and turn them into touchdowns rather than field goals.

The Bills defense ranked #30 in rate of drives allowed into the red zone and #16 in red zone TD rate.

The Eagles defense, on the other hand, ranks #7 in rate of drives allowed into the red zone and #5 in red zone TD rate.

Let’s take a look back at Reid and Patrick Mahomes vs. Vic Fangio with the Broncos and then with the Dolphins.

And we’ll compare red zone efficiency vs. all other Chiefs games during those seasons.

In the 6 games between 2019-2021 vs. the Broncos:

27.3% non-red zone TD rate (TD scored before reaching the red zone)
36.7% of drives reached the red zone
31.8% red zone TD rate
38.5% goal-to-go TD rate

From 2019-2021 in games vs. all other teams:

29.8% non-red zone TD rate
35.6% of drives reached the red zone
62.6% red zone TD rate
80.7% goal-to-go TD rate

Yes, Reid and Mahomes were 6-0 vs. Fangio’s Broncos, but they didn’t score explosive TDs from outside the red zone as often.

And though they made their way into the red zone slightly more often, they scored touchdowns at a MUCH lower rate.

It’s astonishing to see how much worse the Chiefs were at scoring TDs in the red zone vs. Fangio (31.8%) compared to all other teams (62.6%).

And the goal-to-go rates were even more eye opening: 38.5% vs. Fangio, 80.7% vs. everyone else.

Combining all 8 games vs. Fangio from 2019-2021 and 2023, vs. all other defenses the Chiefs played in those same 4 seasons, we see the same trends — get the full numbers in Warren's Super Bowl 59 Report.

Vic Fangio's 2024 Red Zone Defense

Having studied Fangio’s defenses a lot during the summer in preparation for understanding what to expect from the 2024 Eagles, I knew there was a good chance his red zone defense would struggle early in the season.

The staple of Fangio’s defenses is to force you to drive efficiently all the way to the red zone, and if you can make it that far, stuff you before you score a touchdown.

Fangio’s red zone defenses are so formidable that when I consulted for a specific team, we strategized play calls to score touchdowns from just OUTSIDE red zone territory by calling several more explosive shots before entering the red zone to try and score in the condensed space.

From Weeks 1-14, Fangio’s defense allowed only 28.7% of drives to reach the red zone (#11) and allowed a 48.7% red zone TD rate when those drives entered the red zone (#6).

Since Week 15 and including the playoffs, Fangio’s defense dropped those numbers to:

25.7% of drives reach the red zone (#10)
47.4% red zone TD % (#5)

This year Fangio’s defense faced a league-average schedule of opposing offenses.

However, including the playoffs, they played an NFL-high nine games vs. top-10 offenses in % of drives to reach the red zone.

Teams like the Ravens, Bucs, Rams (x2), Packers (x2), Commanders (x3).

This is relevant considering the Chiefs are one of these top-10 offenses as well.

And looking ONLY at games vs. top-10 red zone drive offenses, Fangio’s defense ranked:

#10 in % of drives to reach the red zone (35%)
#6 in red zone TD rate (51%)

Overall, in all games for the Eagles this year, their defense ranked:

#7 in % of drives to reach the red zone (27%)
#5 in red zone TD rate (50%)

Reid & Mahomes Against Fangio

In the 8 games vs. Fangio’s defenses, the Chiefs scored 21 touchdowns.

The distribution:

• 11 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs (15 total offensive TDs), 3 fumble return TDs, 2 interception return TDs, 1 kick return TD

Only 4-of-8 games featured 2 passing TDs.

0 games featured more than 2 passing TDs.

The other 4 games featured 0 or 1 passing TDs.

Because Fangio’s red zone scoring defense is so elite, the Chiefs ended up settling for many FGs.

In these 8 games, KC’s special teams saw 23 FGs attempted, 23 FGs made:

• 7-of-8 games featured 2+ FGs
• 6-of-8 games featured 3+ FGs
• 2-of-8 games featured 4+ FGs

Of those 23 FGs, only 4 were from 40+ yards and only 2 were from 50+ yards.

The Chiefs ended up kicking 10 FGs from inside the 10-yard line and an additional 6 FGs from the 11-yard to 20-yard line.

That’s 16 red zone FGs!

So the bottom line vs. Fangio over 8 games:

The Chiefs offense scored 15 TDs and settled for 23 FGs.

In all other games NOT against Fangio during those years, the Chiefs offense scored 216 TDs and settled for 113 FGs.

» Read the full keys to success for the Chiefs in Super Bowl 59

How the Philadelphia Eagles Can Win Super Bowl 59:

• Success In 11 Personnel
• Protecting Jalen Hurts
• Jalen Hurts Against Zone Coverage

Success In 11 Personnel

The NFL average for 11 personnel usage (1 TE, 1 RB, 3 WRs) was 61% this year, which was down slightly from 62% last year but still reflective of the general trend toward three-WR sets over the last decade.

The Eagles, however, are just below that mark at 60% (#16). Philadelphia ranked #8 in usage of 12 personnel (30%).

However, if you don’t look at context, you’re going to be very wrong by using full season stats.

The Eagles have been banged up at the WR position for portions of the year.

DeVonta Smith missed Week 4 with a concussion and Weeks 12-13 with a hamstring injury before being rested in Week 18.

A.J. Brown missed Weeks 2-4 with a hamstring injury before resting in Week 18. Week 5 was a bye.

As such, the Eagles' top two WRs played together in Week 1, Weeks 6-11 (6 games), and Weeks 14-17 (4 games).

Looking at the Eagles' rate of 11 personnel in quarters 1-3 only:

Week 1: 72% 11 personnel
Weeks 6-11: 61% 11 personnel
Weeks 14-17: 72% 11 personnel

For context, there were only three teams that used 11 personnel at a rate above 71% last year (qtrs. 1-3): Falcons, Rams, and Seahawks.

Fast forward to the playoffs.

We saw the Eagles in their playoff games (3 of them) use 11 personnel on 81% of snaps in the first three quarters of games.

So for the vast majority of the regular season, with their top players healthy, the Eagles were very much an 11-personnel-heavy team.

And that factors into their odds of success against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs Against 11 Personnel

If the Eagles are running between 71% and 81% of 11 personnel in the Super Bowl, that’s good for between the #3 and #4 highest rate in the NFL this season.

The Chiefs haven’t played many opponents that use 11 personnel at rates close to the Eagles.

Look at the last 8 opponents the Chiefs played and where they rank in usage of 11 personnel:

Week 21 – #20 BUF
Week 20 – #15 HOU
Week 18 – #19 DEN
Week 17 – #25 PIT
Week 16 – #15 HOU
Week 15 – #10 CLE
Week 14 – #21 LAC
Week 13 – #28 LV

It will definitely be a change of pace for the Chiefs to face upwards of 80% 11 personnel when they’re accustomed to playing teams that are average to well below average in 11 personnel usage, and that could be an issue given their splits against different personnel groupings.

Against 2+ TE set passes:

#14 EPA/att
#18 success rate
#22 YPA

Against 11 personnel passes:

#23 EPA/att
#27 success rate
#14 YPA

And since Week 9 against 11 personnel passes:

#29 EPA/att
#26 success rate
#13 YPA

In terms of running the ball, since Week 9, against 2+ TE set runs:

#7 EPA/rush
#10 success rate
#3 YPC

But against 11 personnel runs:

#17 EPA/rush
#21 success rate
#24 YPC

The Chiefs are allowing only 3.1 YPC against 2+ TE set runs but 4.9 YPC (#24) against 11 personnel runs.

In the playoffs, the Chiefs have allowed 4.5 YPC to early down RB runs out of 11 personnel in the first three quarters of games.

In the last two games, RBs with 4+ rushes against the Chiefs out of 11 personnel in the first 3 quarters of games:

James Cook: 4.8 YPC and 80% success
Ty Johnson: 4.5 YPC and 50% success
Joe Mixon: 5.8 YPC and 60% success

Saquon Barkley Running Out of 11 Personnel

Saquon Barkley’s splits out of his most frequently used personnel groupings, out of 46 qualifying RBs:

11 personnel:

#1 YPC (6.9)
#3 EPA/rush (+0.24)
#3 success rate (47%)

12 personnel:

#6 YPC (5.2)
#2 EPA/rush (+0.12)
#19 success (36%)

Barkley has 345 total rushes this year out of 11 and 12 personnel and only 29 out of 13 personnel, so the odds that the Eagles use Barkley to a significant degree out of anything other than 11 or 12 personnel are extremely low.

But clearly, Barkley is much better out of 11 personnel, and the Chiefs run defense is much worse defending runs from 11 personnel.

The primary run concepts Barkley uses out of 11 personnel are inside zone, outside zone, and to a lesser degree, pull lead and counter.

The Chiefs have been better defending inside zone runs from 11 personnel but have struggled against outside zone and pull lead.

James Cook scored a 6-yard rushing TD from an outside zone run out of 11 personnel last week. He also had a solid 9-yard run using pull-lead out of 11 personnel.

» Read the full keys to success for the Eagles in Super Bowl 59

Eagles vs. Chiefs Game Overview

Sharp Football’s Rich Hribrar breaks down Eagles vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 59:

This will be the second time these teams have met in the Super Bowl in three seasons.

Hopefully, the results will be as thrilling as that first matchup in 2022 when these teams combined for 73 points, with Kansas City coming ahead 38-35.

These teams also met last season in Week 11 of the regular season, with the Eagles winning 21-17 in a lower-scoring affair.

I believe this current matchup lends itself more toward last year’s final score than the 2022 Super Bowl and will highlight the potential shortcomings for fireworks.

Still, there is enough star power here for a high-scoring game paired with the unique elements under which the Super Bowl is played, potentially impacting the outcome.

Meeting for the third time in as many seasons, both teams come into the Super Bowl sporting strong peripheral metrics.

Kansas City will be looking to make history, attempting to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls.

They are the only back-to-back winner to make it into the Super Bowl for a chance at a three-peat.

With Patrick Mahomes, they are now 17-3 in the postseason with 9 straight wins.

The Chiefs, once again, are playing their best football when it matters most.

Excluding Week 18 when they rested starters, the Chiefs have won and covered the point spread in five straight games.

They are coming off scoring a season-high 32 points in the AFC Championship.

Kansas City has averaged 2.92 points per drive over their past four games with starters, scoring 27, 29, 23, and 32 points.

The market is certainly weighing that here since the Eagles have allowed more than 23 points once over their 16 games since their Week 5 bye.

The Chiefs averaged 2.27 points per drive before this stretch, which was still ninth in the league, but they have stepped up again.

The Chiefs have improved in the red zone over this recent run, scoring a touchdown on 61.9% of their red zone possessions over the past four games.

Before that, the starters had converted 50.9% of their red zone possessions, which was 26th in the league.

Kansas City has been a balanced team, leaning on their defense when applicable.

The Chiefs have allowed 1.98 points per drive (13th) and 5.4 yards per play (12th).

The Eagles are fresh off scoring 55 points in the NFC Championship, the most for any team in the Conference Championship in the Super Bowl era.

These teams are effective on offense but do so in different ways.

The Eagles are a big-play offense, while the Chiefs are built on playing ahead of the sticks.

Philadelphia has scored a league-high 22 touchdowns from outside of the red zone.

The Chiefs have scored six, which is 28th.

The Chiefs' average touchdown length is 9.9 yards, the 31st in the league.

Philadelphia uses a lot of no-huddle plays, running the second-most (16.5 per game) in the league.

Using no-huddle, the Eagles average 6.8 yards per play, third in the NFL.

On non-no-huddle snaps, they dip to 5.3 yards per play, 16th in the league.

This postseason, the Eagles have run 55 no-huddle plays, averaging 7.2 yards per play on those snaps.

On non-no-huddle snaps this postseason, they average 5.5 yards per play, 8th among playoff teams.

The Chiefs have exceeded pass expectations for the season by 6% and 3% on first downs.

They want the ball in the hands of Mahomes.

In this postseason run, the Chiefs have thrown 11% and 10% over expectations.

The Eagles have thrown the ball 8% below expectations this season and 9% below expectations on first downs.

In this postseason, the Eagles have run the ball 12%, 11%, and 5% below expectations, and it is for good reason.

Saquon Barkley and his incredible season have carried the headlines from this Philadelphia campaign, but the Eagles defense has been the best unit in the league.

The Eagles allowed a league-low 1.62 points per drive this season, and that has held steady at 1.61 points allowed per drive in the postseason.

They are the only team in the league allowing fewer than 5.0 yards per play.

Big play prevention has been their calling card.

Philadelphia has allowed 10 or more yards on 17.5% of opponent plays (second in the league) and a league-low 4.6% of plays to gain 20 or more yards.

That has not been a necessary component for this Kansas City offense, which has been built on paper cuts since calibrating this offense after trading away Tyreek Hill.

This season, 19.2% of Kansas City offensive plays have gained 10 or more yards (18th) while 4.7% have gained 20 or more yards (26th).

Of course, we have already seen a similar layout, albeit with different personnel.

When these teams met in the 2022 Super Bowl, the Eagles allowed a league-low 4.8 yards per play and a gain of 20 or more yards on 4.5% of their plays on defense while allowing 1. 78 points per drive.

Both of these teams have been excellent at protecting the football.

The Eagles have turned the ball over on 5.5% of their drives, which is second in the league.

Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have turned the ball over on a league-best 2.8% of their possessions.

The Chiefs are third over that same span, turning the ball over on 5.1% of their possessions over their past 14 games. That rate dropped to a league-best 2.8% since Week 9.

We have consistently highlighted the importance of takeaways during this postseason, and that is just as magnified in the Super Bowl.

Teams that have won the turnover battle in the Super Bowl have a 39-7 record.

When these teams met in the 2022 Super Bowl, the Chiefs had the only takeaway, directly resulting in a defensive touchdown.

Both teams have tight metrics on offense and defense while protecting the football.

If there is one area where there is a wider margin between these teams this season, it has been on special teams.

The Chiefs are modestly 15th in the NFL in EPA on special teams (1.39), but the Eagles are 29th (-26.41).

The Eagles have made 79.1% of their field goals (25th).

The Chiefs have had some of the best field goal fortune in the league with their opponents making only 75% of their attempts, the second-lowest rate in the league.

Eagles vs. Chiefs DFS Breakdown

Sharp Football's Raymond Summerlin breaks down the DFS slate for Super Bowl 59:

Saquon Barkley

Barkley is interesting because he is cost prohibitive and yet will likely still be easily the most popular captain on the slate and one of the most popular options overall.

That popularity makes sense.

The Chiefs have struggled to stop the run in recent games, specifically struggle to stop the run when the offense is in 11 personnel, which the Eagles play a lot, and Barkley has an established stratospheric ceiling.

So the question is not whether we should play Barkley but rather how do we play him?

First, if Barkley hits for a captain-level game, can Jalen Hurts get the touchdowns and/or passing volume he will likely need to post a solid value score?

The answer to that question is obviously yes. We just saw it in the NFC Championship game, but that contest featured 78 points. I am not expecting that kind of offensive onslaught in the Super Bowl.

Second, if Barkley does not hit that captain-level score, do I want him in my lineup at all? If he gets 125 yards from scrimmage but doesn't find the end zone, is that enough for a FLEX spot given his price?

My rules for Barkley will be pretty simple. If he is my captain, I don't want Hurts in the lineup. If he is not at the captain spot, I will not be playing him.

Those rules come with the understanding Hurts could rush for 3 touchdowns again, Barkley could go for 3 scores again himself, and I look like more of an idiot than usual.

Jalen Hurts

Hurts is my favorite captain option.

We know he has the upside for a big score, he is not going to be as popular as Saquon Barkley, Patrick Mahomes, or perhaps even Travis Kelce, and I expect the Chiefs to focus on forcing Hurts to beat them.

Steve Spagnuolo has a history of shutting down great rushing attacks when it matters the most. You only have to look at the last two Super Bowls to see that in action.

I would expect the Chiefs to focus on stopping Barkley, leaving opportunities for Hurts to exploit.

Can the Chiefs actually stop Barkley? Will Hurts take advantage if they do?

Time will tell, but Hurts throwing for a touchdown, rushing for a few more, and posting the biggest fantasy score of the game is well within the realm of possibilities.

Player Prop Bets for Super Bowl 59:

Sharp Football's Pamela Maldonado likes Patrick Mahomes over 6.5 rush attempts

Mahomes has always been dangerous in the postseason, but this year, his scrambling ability has reached another level.

His regular-season scramble rate sat at 6%, but in the playoffs, that number has skyrocketed to 15%, showing just how much more he's relied on his legs when the stakes are highest.

That’s led to him exceeding 6.5 rushing attempts in every postseason game this year, and in a matchup against the Eagles' relentless pass rush, there's no reason to believe that trend won’t continue.

Since making his playoff debut in 2018, Mahomes leads all players in postseason scramble yards (575), first downs (36), and touchdowns (4).

No other player has more than 1 touchdown on a scramble in that span.

When the moment gets bigger, Mahomes takes over — not just with his arm but with his ability to extend plays and punish defenses with his legs.

Against Vic Fangio’s defense, which prioritizes limiting deep shots, there will be room underneath for Mahomes to exploit.

Philadelphia’s front will bring the pressure, forcing Mahomes to move, and if they focus too much on coverage, he’ll take what’s available with his legs.

He’s already averaging 9 rushing attempts per game this postseason, and with the Eagles’ pass rush collapsing the pocket, scrambling will be his go-to counter.

On the biggest stage, Mahomes has also proven himself historically, holding the record for the most scramble yards in Super Bowl history (158), ahead of legends like Joe Montana and John Elway.

In a rematch with a three-peat on the line, trust Mahomes to do what he does best — elevate his game when it matters most.

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Sharp Football's Pamela Maldonado likes Eagles under 6.5 total fourth quarter points

Based on the Chiefs' defensive tendencies under Steve Spagnuolo, betting on the Eagles' fourth-quarter total points under 6.5 (+125) presents solid value.

Kansas City's defense takes an aggressive leap in the final quarter, blitzing on 41% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL.

This isn't just about pressure. It's about results.

In the playoffs since 2019, the Chiefs have allowed a 42% completion rate when blitzing in the fourth quarter compared to 65% in the first three quarters.

They have also generated more sacks (8) and forced turnovers (2-1 TD-INT ratio) in crunch time.

Historically, the Chiefs' ability to close out games with constant pressure has disrupted opposing quarterbacks, leading to stalled drives, sacks, and turnovers.

If Jalen Hurts finds himself trailing and forced into passing situations late in the game, Kansas City's blitz-heavy approach could create chaos, reducing the likelihood of sustained scoring drives.

At plus money, under 6.5 on the Eagles' fourth-quarter total points aligns perfectly with the Chiefs' defensive trends, making it a compelling bet.

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» Read all of Pamela Maldonado's favorite Super Bowl 59 prop bets:

• Best Player Prop Bets
• Best Game Prop Bets

First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions & Bets for Super Bowl 59

Sharp Football's staff likes Jalen Hurts (+650) to be the first touchdown scorer in Super Bowl 59

Hurts looked healthy in the NFC Championship game, and he has another two weeks for his knee to get back to 100%. Hurts has a rushing score in each of his last two games — he had 3 of them against the Commanders — and at least 1 rushing touchdown in 12 of 18 games this season. The Chiefs allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and the eighth-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in the regular season.

» Read our full touchdown predictions and best bets

Same Game Parlay Predictions for Super Bowl 59

Sharp Football's Curis Hirsch offers his favorite same game parlay for Super Bowl 59:

• Travis Kelce (Chiefs) Receptions Over 6.5
• Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) Completions Over 23.5
• DeVonta Smith (Eagles) Receiving Yards Over 52.5

If you combined every leg from this same game parlay, the odds would be +430.

» Read our full same game parlay predictions

More Super Bowl 59 Prop Bet Coverage: