49ers vs Rams Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 6

• Under Sean McVay, the Rams are 10-3 against divisional opponents. 
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are a league-worst 2-10 against divisional opponents. 
• Rams running backs average 21.2 touches per game, ahead of only the Dolphins (19.8). Their backfield averages 92.4 yards from scrimmage per game, ahead of only Cincinnati (88.6), and Miami (85.0).
• San Francisco has let opponents score on 20.8% of their possessions (third) after 41.9% in 2018 (26th).
• Opposing teams have converted just 20% (2-of-10) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns versus San Francisco, the lowest rate in the league.
• Rams wide receivers average 30.4 targets per game (most in the league) while 49ers wideouts average just 13.8 targets per game (31st).
• Cooper Kupp has at least 100 yards receiving in four straight games, the longest streak for a Rams player since Isaac Bruce in 2004.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Cooper Kupp: He has 12 or more targets in each of the past three games with nine or more receptions in all of those games. This is the best offense the 49ers have played so far, but the wideouts that have done the best against them, have been primary slot options in Tyler Boyd (10-122), Chris Godwin (3-53-1), JuJu Smith-Schuster (3-81-1), and Jarvis Landry (4-75).

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Jared Goff:  We always circle Goff at home and his two highest-scoring games this season have come in Los Angeles. Goff has now been a top-12 scorer in nine of his past 10 games at home. The dynamic in play here is the San Francisco defensive line. The 49ers are fifth in the league in pressure rate (30.9%) and sack rate (9.2%) while Goff has a 68.6 quarterback rating under pressure this season (19th) and has been under pressure for 43% of his dropbacks (fourth). 
• Robert Woods: Woods also gets in the slot for 41% of his routes, so he should benefit from some of what was mentioned with Kupp, but Woods has had just one WR2 or better scoring week on the season with fewer than 50 yards in three of his past four games.
• Brandin Cooks: On track to play after a concussion last Thursday, Cooks’ per game stats (4.0/65.0) and 58.8% catch rate are down from last season (5.0/75.3 and 68.4%). Goff’s lack of deep passing attempts have widdled those down. He will draw rookie Emmanuel Moseley the most of the Rams wideouts (60% of his routes).
• George Kittle: He finally found the end zone last week and trails only Darren Waller (26.1%) in team target share (25.4%) among tight ends. Kittle has been the TE2 (29.9 points), TE3 (20.8), and the TE2 (14.0) over his past three games versus the Rams, catching 18-of-28 targets for 347 yards and two touchdowns. But Kittle is dealing with a groin injury that is expected to have him limited on Sunday. He will still play high-leverage snaps, which can keep him in play at a soft position, but lowers the expectations of a ceiling game.
• 49ers RBs: With Tevin Coleman returning to the lineup, Coleman and Matt Breida played 26 snaps each last week while Raheem Mostert played 24. Touches were 16 for Coleman, 14 for Breida and seven for Mostert with Coleman having the lone rushing attempt from inside of the 10-yard line (although Breida did have a touchdown reception from inside of the 10). The 49ers backfield leads the league in touches (38.0) and yards from scrimmage per game (244.3) while the Rams have allowed 172, 117, 131, 83, and 210 yards to backfields through five weeks. It remains to be seen what kind of impact the loss of Kyle Juszczyk means for this run game compounded by the loss of Mike McGlinchey, but this has been the most productive backfield in the league to date.
• Malcolm Brown: With Todd Gurley now doubtful, Brown is the next man in line to lead the Rams on the ground. Brown has had his role reduced the past few weeks as Gurley’s expanded, but Brown has played 90 snaps this season to just two snaps played for Darrell Henderson. San Francisco is allowing 94.8 yards per game to opposing backfields (second) and haven’t allowed a running back to finish higher than RB30 on the season. Brown gains lower-end RB2 status still from the expected volume increase and scoring chances the Rams offense provides while Henderson is more of a dart FLEX option.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• 49ers WRs: This offense goes through the backs and Kittle. 49ers wideouts have produced a top-40 scoring week in just one game this season. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Josh Reynolds: With Brandin Cooks in concussion protocol and having previous concussion history, we’re going to tread early on as if Cooks will be absent, but he does have extra time off to be cleared since the Rams played last Thursday. If Cooks is out, Reynolds would take his place. Reynolds averaged 3.7 catches for 50.6 yards per game with three touchdowns in six games as a starter a year ago to close the season, which includes a 4-55-2 game against the 49ers.
• Gerald Everett: Everett has been hot the past two weeks, catching 12-of-19 targets for 180 yards and a touchdown. With Cooks potentially out, Everett could stand to gain more than Reynolds, but the 49ers linebackers are made up of smaller, faster options that can run with tight ends. San Francisco is allowing a league-low 3.9 yards per target to opposing tight ends to start the season. 
• Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo has been higher than QB15 in just one game this season, but with a potential shootout in the range of outcomes here, he deserves a look in a week with light streaming options. The Rams have allowed the QB3 and QB1 the past two weeks and eight touchdown passes after allowing just one touchdown pass through the opening three weeks. The downside is that while the 49ers were already without Joe Staley, they are now going to be without Mike McGlinchey as well against a defense that ranks second in the NFL in pressure rate.