The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 6 Seattle Seahawks vs Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon game on October 13, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
|31.7%||3||Opp. Rush %||45.7%||26|
|68.4%||30||Opp. Pass %||54.3%||7|
- Russell Wilson is tied for the league-lead in end zone targets (18) and leads the league in end zone target rate (11.5%).
- Wilson leads the league in touchdown rate (7.7%) and passing points per pass attempt (.669).
- Seattle has converted 76.5% of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 54.0%.
- Opponents have converted 69.2% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns against Cleveland, the third-highest rate behind only Miami (75%) and the Jets (70%).
- Tyler Lockett leads all wide receivers in catchable target rate (91.4%) after leading the position in 2018 (87.8%).
- Baker Mayfield is 14th in expected fantasy passing points (80.3), but the QB26 in actual fantasy passing output (49.9).
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Russell Wilson: He’s once again living off of hyper-efficiency, throwing 28 or fewer passes in three of the four Seattle wins this season. Wilson has been a top-5 scorer in three of the past four weeks, with that one coming in a game in which they coasted. The Browns are middle-of-the-pack in passing points allowed per game (16th), but have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to every quarterback they’ve faced except for Luke Falk.
- Chris Carson: He’s back to controlling this backfield and has hung onto the ball the past two weeks. Even with Rashaad Penny active last week, Carson played a season-high 83.8% of the snaps and handled a season-high 28 touches. Cleveland is traveling back home on a short week after allowing 280 total yards to the San Francisco backfield.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Nick Chubb: Even on a season-low 17 touches last week in a negative game script, Chubb still managed 99 yards from scrimmage. Returning home, Seattle has allowed a top-12 running back in each of their past three games, but hasn’t allowed a back to reach 70 yards on the ground in any game yet this season.
- Tyler Lockett: He’s had just eight targets come his way the past two games. He’s able to live off efficiency through Wilson, but that type of limited volume limits Lockett’s ceiling and lowers his floor in games in which he fails to find the end zone. The Browns should get Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward back this week, but Lockett is running 73% of his routes from the slot.
- Odell Beckham: He’s been the WR35 or lower in every week but one with just four catches for 47 yards over the past two weeks. Hurt by the play of Mayfield and ineptitude of this offense so far, Beckham still has 22.6% and 25% of the team targets over the past two weeks. Volume isn’t the issue. Seattle is 26th in the league in points allowed to opposing RWR options, which is where Beckham runs a team-high 44% of his pass routes.
- Jarvis Landry: While Beckham has sagged the past two weeks, Landry has been useful with WR5 (8-167) and WR30 (4-75) scoring weeks. Since David Njoku was lost, Landry has received 25%, 32.3%, and 25% of the team targets. Landry is still running 71% of his routes from the slot. Seattle has allowed 8-109-1 and 8-73-0 to opposing slot wideouts the past two weeks.
- Will Dissly: Dissly has played 79.4% and 89.2% of the team snaps after trading away Nick Vannett. Even in a game where he failed to find the end zone, Dissly was the TE7 (12.8 points) a week ago. Cleveland is 25th in points allowed per game to tight ends (14.5) on the strength of touchdown production, allowing top-eight weeks to Delanie Walker (5-55-2), Mark Andrews (4-31-1), and George Kittle (6-70-1).
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Baker Mayfield: His best-scoring week so far has been QB15 while he’s been the QB28 or lower in three of his five starts. Seattle is 19th in passing points allowed per game (15.7), but Mayfield takes too large of a step of faith at this point to have higher than a mid-QB2.
- D.K. Metcalf: His fantasy output has gone as his touchdown production goes. Metcalf has been the WR29 and WR28 in his two games with a touchdown, but the WR40, WR55, and WR99 in his three games without a trip to the end zone. Cleveland has allowed just five touchdowns to opposing wideouts so far (tied for fifth).