The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 6 Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings Sunday afternoon game on October 13, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
|31.5%||2||Opp. Rush %||38.1%||13|
|68.5%||31||Opp. Pass %||61.9%||20|
- Since Mike Zimmer was hired in 2014, the Vikings are a league-best 31-13-1 (69.8%) against the spread at home.
- 46.6% of the Minnesota offensive yardage has been gained through rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 18.9% of the yardage allowed by the Eagles has come via rushing, the second-lowest rate in the league.
- The Eagles rank first in the league in rate of opponent runs to gain zero yards or less (28.7% — league average 17.8%) and rate of runs to gain five or more yards (20.2% — league average 35.6%).
- The Vikings are +14 in offensive plays of 20-plus yards than their opponents, the largest gap in the league.
- Carson Wentz gets the fewest yards after the catch per completion (3.7).
- Kirk Cousins ranks third at 6.6 yards after the catch per completion.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Adam Thielen: He was the squeaky wheel last week (7-130-2). Thielen ran a season-high 44.4% of his routes from the slot last week, where he caught four passes for 45 yards and both of his touchdowns. The Eagles had a free pass last week against the Jets, but they still are 26th in yardage allowed per game (191.8) and 23rd in receptions allowed per game (13.4) to opposing wideouts. Thielen gets the edge over Stefon Diggs by showing more touchdown upside so far this season, leading the team in red zone targets (seven) and end zone targets (four).
- Zach Ertz: He hasn’t turned in that spike week yet but Ertz has been a TE1 scoring week in each of his past four games, with 26.6% of the team targets over that span. The Vikings have struggled to keep Ertz in check, allowing lines of 8-93-0 and 10-110-1 to him over their past two meetings. The Vikings have allowed the fourth-most receptions to tight ends, allowing top-10 weeks to Austin Hooper (9-77), Darren Waller (13-134) and Evan Engram (6-42) despite not allowing a touchdown to the position yet on the season.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Stefon Diggs: Diggs has been the WR51 or lower in four of five weeks this season, but he also should get a piece of this stellar matchup. The Vikings should also be forced to throw more regardless of game script since the Eagles are such a pass-funnel defense. Just two weeks ago, the Vikings had a season-high 36 pass attempts and the Eagles back end is nowhere near as good as the Chicago one they faced in that game. The Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing RWR options this season, where Thielen has run 39% of his pass routes, but Diggs has also run 37% of his. We still have to question if there’s enough passing-game meat on the bone for the Vikings wideouts to thrive together in the same game under Kevin Stefanski, but the matchup is favorable for Minnesota to attack the Eagles with both Diggs and Thielen firsthand.
- Dalvin Cook: He’s the only back that has been a top-12 scorer in every game this season. Coming off a 210-yard game last week, this matchup is much tougher. In a similar spot two weeks ago against Chicago, Cook had a season-low 70 yards from scrimmage, but still had 20 touches and had six receptions. That workload and receiving use keeps his floor high. Cook has at least 6.7 receiving points in four straight games. The Eagles rank third in rushing points allowed per game to backfields (7.2), but are 22nd in receiving points allowed per game (11.9).
- Alshon Jeffery: He’s received 33.3% and 27.6% of the targets the past two weeks since returning, but has just nine catches for 90 yards combined in those games with a touchdown. He has an up and down history against Xavier Rhodes and the Vikings. Jeffery caught just 2-of-8 targets for 39 yards when these teams met a year ago and has fewer than 40 yards in five of nine games against the Vikings since Rhodes was drafted, but he also has eight touchdowns. The target volume and scoring potential is enough to keep Jeffery on the table as a WR3 option, but there’s potential for a low floor.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Carson Wentz: Over the past four games, Wentz has thrown for just 209.8 yards per game and just 6.2 yards per pass attempt. He has a game with three passing touchdowns and another with a rushing touchdown that has masked his passing-game depression over that span. Last week, Wentz was off at home against the Jets, but gets one of the worst road matchups in the league this week. The Vikings have allowed just five top-12 scoring weeks in the 50 games since hiring Zimmer in 2014.
- Kyle Rudolph: Rudolph has run a pass route on just 40% of his snaps and is sitting on six catches for 36 yards on the season.
- Eagles RBs: Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders are in an even split now, but Howard has the fantasy edge since he has taken over the goal line role. Howard will need a goal line opportunity against a Vikings defense that is fifth in rushing points allowed to backfields. Sanders ran 14 pass routes last week and Darren Sproles is out, which opens Sanders up to have more value here, but only as a receiving-based FLEX.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Kirk Cousins: If you streamed him last week, you’re in position to do the same this week at home against an Eagles defense that faces the second-highest rate of passing plays due to their run defense. The Vikings are surely going to stick to their run-first approach, but in a similar spot two weeks ago against a Bears run defense, the Vikings threw the ball 72.4% of the time. The Eagles back end is also much softer, allowing 16.3 passing points per game (22nd).