The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 6 Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals Sunday afternoon game on October 13, 2019 at 4:05 pm ET.
Check out this week’s unlocked Worksheet matchup: Eagles at Vikings
27Implied Total24.5
30.431Points All./Gm27.628
62.212Opp. Plays/Gm66.425
48.6%30Opp. Rush %44.0%23
51.5%3Opp. Pass %56.0%10
  • Opponents have scored on 52.1% of their possessions against Atlanta (second-highest after Miami).
  • Opponents have scored on 47.2% of their possessions against Arizona, the third-highest rate in the league.
  • The Cardinals have scored a touchdown on 31.6% (6-of-19) of their possessions to end inside of the red zone, ahead of only the Dolphins (16.7%) on the season.
  • Arizona has kicked seven field goals from the 5-yard line and in, the most in the league. No other team has more than two to start the season.
  • Kyler Murray has thrown a touchdown pass for every 331.0 yards passing, ahead of only Josh Rosen of all quarterbacks with a touchdown pass this season. League average is a touchdown pass per 167.9 passing yards.
  • The Falcons are allowing a touchdown pass once every 109.7 passing yards, 30th in the league.
  • Matt Ryan has thrown for 300 or more yards in six consecutive games, the longest streak of his career.
  • Just 22.7% of the Atlanta rushing attempts have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 35.6%. 

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Matt Ryan: He’s thrown for 300-yards in every game while Arizona is 31st in passing points per game allowed (20.9) and has allowed four top-10 fantasy scorers in five games.
  • Kyler Murray: He pushed the ball downfield again last week (10.2 yard average depth of target) and continued to use his legs (10-93-1). Murray now has the most rushing yards (189) at the position over the past three weeks. He’s had at least 16.3 fantasy points in every game this season and just needs to have his passing touchdown rate regress to the mean. This is as good of a week to circle that regression as Atlanta is 31st in touchdown rate allowed (7.7%) to opposing passers.
  • Julio Jones: Jones had just 14.2% of the team targets the past two games after 24.4% of the team looks through three games. Arizona is allowing the fourth-most points to opposing LWR options, where Jones runs 56% of his routes.
  • Austin Hooper: We had a reprieve from a tight end torching the Cardinals for the first time on the season last week, but Hooper actually plays and gets usage. Hooper is the highest-scoring tight end in leagues that reward receptions with 13.6 or more fantasy points in four of his five games. Even while limiting the Cincinnati tight ends to four catches for 30 yards, the Cardinals have still allowed the most yardage (92.2 yards per game) and touchdowns (six) to the position. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • David Johnson: Johnson has really gotten it going with 139 and 156 total yards the past two weeks. But Johnson is dealing with a back injury that limited last week (70.1% of the team snaps) and is expected to limit in practice this week. Chase Edmonds had a season-high 27 snaps, 11 touches, and 86 yards from scrimmage. Surprisingly, Atlanta has begun the season allowing a league-low 5.6 receiving points to backfields, but have faced just one team so far this season that is in the top half of the league RB target rate. The Falcons are 22nd in rushing points allowed per game (15.3) to the position.
  • Larry Fitzgerald: Fitz has been higher than WR3 just once this season, but has yet to finish lower than WR36 on the season. With Christian Kirk out last week, Fitz had his highest target rate (25%) since Week 2. The Falcons are last in the league in points allowed to opposing slot wideouts, allowing lines of 8-115-0, 4-47-0, 8-59-2, 10-116-1 and 2-17 to slot wideouts per game on the season. 
  • Christian Kirk: All of those slot data points also apply to Kirk, who plays in the slot 82% of the time. Kirk is already practicing this week and appears on track to play this Sunday. Kirk has received at least 20% of the Arizona targets in three of his four games played.
  • Devonta Freeman: He’s averaging just 3.7 rushing points per game (51st), but is staying afloat by averaging 9.1 receiving points per game (eighth). The past three weeks have seen Freeman’s usage rise (18.3 touches per game), but he’ll need to better in the running game as Arizona is allowing more rushing points per game (12.6, 13th) than receiving points (7.7, third) to start the season. 
  • Calvin Ridley: Opportunities found their way to Ridley last week as his 19.6% target share was his highest rate in a game since Week 2. The Atlanta usage tree is wider than we’d like, but with how much they are throwing, we have to keep going to all options on the offense. That opportunity oscillation could swing back towards Jones this week given how poor Arizona is to LWR options (Ridley does run 27% of his routes at LWR), but we have to keep Ridley in lineups while the Falcons are putting up so many yards through the air weekly.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Mohamed Sanu: Sanu has five or more receptions in three straight games and has been a top-30 scorer in each of those weeks. His target share last week (10.9%) was his lowest on the season, but Arizona just struggled in the slot a week ago, allowing 10 receptions for 134 yards and touchdown to slot wideouts last week versus the Bengals.
  • KeeSean Johnson: If we’re going to go beyond Kirk, Johnson is the ancillary Arizona wideout of choice on the boundary. The rub is that Johnson hasn’t had more than 46 yards in any game this season, making him more a deeper dig based on the opportunity and the matchup overproduction.

More Week 6 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

NYG at NE | CAR at TB | CIN at BAL | SEA at CLE | HOU at KC | WAS at MIA | NO at JAX | PHI at MIN | ATL at ARI | SF at LAR | DAL at NYJ | TEN at DEN | PIT at LAC | DET at GB