Panthers vs Buccaneers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 6

• Tampa Bay games have featured a combined average of 59.0 points, the most in the league.
• Christian McCaffrey’s 866 yards from scrimmage are second all-time through five games of a season, trailing only Jim Brown in 1963 (988).
• McCaffrey leads the league in runs of five or more yards (40) and runs of 10 or more yards (15).
• McCaffrey leads the league in red zone opportunities with 20.
• Opposing backfields have scored just 20.2% of the fantasy points against Tampa Bay, the lowest rate in the league.
• Just 55.6% (20-of 36) of Mike Evans’s targets have been catchable, the lowest rate of 41 wide receivers with 30 or more targets on the season.
• 80.9% (34-of-42) of Chris Godwin’s targets have been catchable, sixth of the same group of wideouts.
• Godwin leads the league in receptions that result in a first down (30), receptions of 10 or more yards (27) while tied for the league lead in receptions of 20 or more yards (10).

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Christian McCaffrey: He’s the only back averaging double-digit rushing (18.9) and receiving points (13.0) per game. The matchup is tough on paper and McCaffrey set season lows in touches (18) and yards (53) on a short week when these teams met in Week 2. This game has a full week of rest and the Bucs did allow 104 yards and six catches (16.9 points) to Alvin Kamara a week ago.
• Greg Olsen: After a strong 6-75-2 line in his first start with Kyle Allen, Olsen has caught just 2-of-6 targets for five yards over the past two weeks. Olsen has been targeted on 10.3% of routes the past two weeks after 24.5% through three games. This is a good spot for him to rebound against a Tampa Bay team that has once again been torched by opposing tight ends. The Bucs have allowed the TE9 or higher in all five games this season, including a 6-110 line to Olsen back in Week 2.
• Chris Godwin: He leads the league in a number of valuable counting stats while also leading in the most important one (having six touchdown receptions). Carolina is allowing the most receptions per game (15.8) to opposing wideouts and have allowed 25 receptions to opposing wide receivers in the slot over the past three games. Godwin only had 2-38 against Carolina in Week 2 from the slot, but still had a huge 8-121-1 game. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Mike Evans: After a two-week surge, Evans has the second goose-egg of his career last week on just three targets. Evans runs into another familiar foe here in James Bradberry and the Panthers. In six career games against the Panthers with Bradberry on the field, he’s caught 25-of-53 targets for 357 yards and one touchdown. That’s not endearing, but Evans is not someone you can completely write of given the types of targets he gets. 
• D.J. Moore/Curtis Samuel: Moore has 10-187-1 on 15 targets with Allen under center while Samuel has 11-104-1 on 20 targets. Both have fallen into lower-end WR3 status with the low passing volume of the offense the past two weeks, but this is a week to circle both as solid options in that area. Tampa Bay is allowing 15.6 receptions (31st) and 214.8 yards (32nd) to opposing wide receivers. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Jameis Winston: Winston has shown a high-ceiling and a high floor over the past three weeks, even salvaging 17.5 points last week in a game in which he completed just 55.6% of his passes for 204 passing yards. Winston has been a QB1 just once in eight career games against the Panthers. Carolina still ranks 12th in passing points allowed (12.4 per game), after they surrendered 374 passing yards to Gardner Minshew last week and Tampa Bay has some major concerns on the offensive line with both starting RT Demar Dotson and RG Alex Cappa out for this game. 
• O.J. Howard: The good news is that Howard ran a pass route on a season-high 55.3% of his snaps last week. The bad news is that he was targeted on just 7.7% of his routes, which was the second-lowest rate he’s had in a game outside of getting zero targets in this same matchup in Week 2.
• Tampa Bay RBs: We’re still in a timeshare here with both Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber playing 20 snaps each, with Dare Ogunbowale making it a three-way split with 19 snaps himself last week while Tampa Bay trailed heavy. Jones has been the more productive back with 259 total yards the past three weeks to 105 for Barber, but Barber has three rushing scores to just one on the year for Jones. The Panthers have been vulnerable on the ground, allowing 15.1 rushing points per game to opposing backfields (20th), but with this timeshare and the Bucs missing their entire right side of the offensive line, I’m leaving both Tampa Bay backs as lower-end FLEX options.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Kyle Allen: Allen has been more of a caretaker the past two weeks, averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt and throwing just one touchdown pass combined against the Texans and Jaguars. The Bucs have been a pass funnel to target so far, allowing 19.5 passing points per game (28th) and have allowed huge games to Daniel Jones (34.2 points), Jared Goff (20.7), and Teddy Bridgewater (27.3) the past three weeks.