The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 6 Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Sunday afternoon game on October 13, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
|33.2%||5||Opp. Rush %||43.9%||22|
|66.8%||28||Opp. Pass %||56.1%||11|
- Patrick Mahomes ranks first in rate of throws 15 yards or further downfield (30.8%) while Deshaun Watson ranks sixth (22.0%).
- Mahomes is 9-of-28 (32.1%) on passes 15 yards or further downfield the past two weeks after connecting on 53.1% (17-of-32) of those passes through three weeks.
- Watson has a passing or rushing touchdown on 26.4% of his drives, the highest rate for any quarterback in the league.
- Opposing teams have targeted their wide receivers just 45.2% of the time versus the Chiefs, the lowest rate in the league.
- Houston targets their wide receivers on 69.4% of their passes, second in the league behind only Arizona (72.3%).
- The Chiefs have converted 50% of their red zone possessions for touchdowns (23rd) after converting 73.1% in 2018 (second).
- The Chiefs are the only team in the league that has had five different players lead their team in receiving yardage in a game this season.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury, a banged-up offensive line and wide receiving unit missing their top-two options. There’s also a potential issue that he has with man-to-man coverage. But A mortal version of Mahomes the past two weeks has still passed for 300 yards, scored at least 18 fantasy points, and been the QB11 each week. Houston is 25th in passing points allowed per game (17.7), and Tyreek Hill should be on track to return this week after getting in practice time last week.
- Deshaun Watson: We always love to target Watson in these situation as a road dog when Houston is going to be forced to pass. Watson averages 27.4 points per game as a road underdog of five or more points, including a 30.7-point game in Week 1. Watson and the Chiefs played a 76-point shootout in his rookie season when he threw five touchdown passes in that game.
- Travis Kelce: He leads all tight ends in receiving yardage (439) and has at least 70 yards in every game this season, but has run on the negative end of touchdown variance with just one score this season.
- DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins had 7-88 and was the WR17 last week, but that somehow even felt disappointing. Hopkins hasn’t cleared eight targets since Week 1, but the Texans are in a similar team spot as they were in Week 1 as road dogs. In that game, Hopkins had his best game of the season with 8-111-2. In that same sample as discussed with Watson on the field as road dogs, Hopkins averages 7.6 catches for 112.4 yards and 22.3 fantasy points.
- Will Fuller: Last week was an example of how remaining objective can pay dividends. Everything kept saying to keep sticking with Fuller and he hit in spades last week with the highest-scoring game (53.7 points) for a WR since Terrell Owens in 2000 (54.8). Fuller was targeted on 45.7% of his routes in Week 5 after being targeted on 15.0% of his routes through four weeks. We’re not going to see that happen again here, but in a potential shootout, we don’t have to point-chase Fuller’s Week 5 performance. In two games versus the Chiefs, Fuller has lines of 2-257-2 and 4-104-0, the former with Watson as his quarterback.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Tyreek Hill: Early reports are expecting him back this week, but as usual, circle back during the week as new information comes out. Treating things as he’ll be active, then he couldn’t come back to a much better situation. The Texans are 27th in yardage allowed to opposing wideouts (192.4 yards) and 20th in points allowed per target (1.87 points) to the position. Coming off a multi-week injury is the only thing limiting here.
- Chiefs RBs: With Damien Williams returning the lineup last week, Williams played 56% of the team snaps, with LeSean McCoy (22.2%) as the only other back to find the field. Williams out-touched McCoy 12-2. McCoy didn’t even get a rushing attempt in the game. But once again, Williams was largely ineffective. Williams now has 159 total yards on 43 touches. We’re far from in the clear on having a clear-cut usage between the options here, leaving Williams as a lower-end RB2 option with McCoy as a FLEX. Houston is allowing 16.9 receiving points (31st) to opposing backfields, something the Chiefs can surely exploit.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Chiefs WRs: With Sammy Watkins dealing with a hamstring injury that limited to one snap last week, we could be in line for both Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson to remain on the field heavily, even if Hill returns to the lineup. All of the Chiefs wideouts have substantial slot experience this season, so we’ll likely see all of Hill (57.1% slot use on the season), Hardman (51%) and Robinson (67.3%) get used inside with Byron Pringle (41.5%) relegated back to similar use he had over the opening four weeks. Pringle would get elevated should Hill sit out once again while Hardman would take the next hit should Watkins also be back.
- Houston RBs: Does this qualify as a revenge game for Carlos Hyde? Hyde has out-touched Duke Johnson in every game since Week 1 (67-28 total), but Johnson has produced more yardage in each of the past two games (145-124). Johnson hasn’t had more than two catches in a game since Week 1, but does have 56 and 59 rushing yards the past two weeks. Hyde remains the favorite for carries and scoring opportunities against a Chiefs defense allowing 176.2 yards from scrimmage per game (30th) to opposing backfields and is now missing Chris Jones.
- Keke Coutee: With Kenny Stills out again, Coutee ran just 18 pass routes in Week 5, but still made the most of his opportunities, catching 3-of-4 targets for 72 yards.