The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Bears and Packers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Green Bay | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
1.0 | Spread | -1.0 | ||
21.0 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
21.8 | 14 | Points/Gm | 19.2 | 23 |
21.8 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 27.2 | 32 |
61.8 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 58.4 | 30 |
58.3 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 9 |
5.5 | 13 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 20 |
5.8 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 31 |
43.39% | 15 | Rush% | 56.19% | 1 |
56.61% | 18 | Pass% | 43.81% | 32 |
48.34% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 51.97% | 32 |
51.66% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 48.03% | 1 |
- Chicago had a league-worst 3-12 record in games in which they led in 2022. The league had a 61.1% win rate in those games.
- The Bears had a league-worst -37 sack differential in 2022.
- Last season when the Bears did not have a sack on a drive, they were 12th in the NFL in points per drive (2.30) and 11th in scoring rate per drive (42.7%).
- When they had a drive with a sack, they fell to 31st in points per drive (0.50) and 29th in scoring rate per drive (12.0%).
- The Bears had a 34.0% success rate on passing plays in 2022, the lowest rate in the league. The league average was 43.0%.
- Chicago allowed opponents to reach the red zone or score before the red zone on 42.4% of their drives, the highest rate in the league.
- Green Bay scored a touchdown on just 50% (11-of-22) of their goal-to-go possessions in 2022, the worst rate in the league. The league average was 72.2%.
- Chicago was third in the NFL in yards gained per carry on first downs (5.2) and 31st in yards allowed per carry on first downs (5.3).
- The Bears allowed a league-high 7.4 yards per passing play in 2022.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Fields: 2023 is a huge inflection point season for Fields.
He can cement his market value with a step forward as a passer and compete to be the QB1 as a fantasy option if that happens.
If not, the Bears still have a window in which they do not have a long-term commitment to Fields.
Chicago has done enough this offseason to provide the surrounding pieces around Fields to gain clarity on him moving forward by adding D.J. Moore and Darnell Wright.
Fields was the best rushing quarterback for fantasy last season. He rushed for 1,143 yards in 15 games, pacing all quarterbacks in rushing points per game (10.8).
If the addition of Moore can provide the type of spark that Josh Allen received when the Bills added Stefon Diggs or Jalen Hurts last season via the addition of A.J. Brown, then Fields can be a fantasy supernova.
To get there, Fields also has a lot to clean up this season and will have no excuses if he fails again as a passer.
He is historically the worst quarterback through two years of their career in taking sacks (something that was also an issue for him in college when pressured). Fields has been sacked on 13.4% of his dropbacks through two seasons, which is the highest rate for a passer over his first two seasons in the league.
Fields has taken a sack on 32.5% of his pressures to start his career. The league average over the past two seasons is 20.0%, so this is not just an offensive line issue.
We also have some inaccuracy issues to clear up.
There have been 58 quarterbacks who have thrown 100 or more passes in the past two NFL seasons. Fields ranks 51st in inaccuracy rate per TruMedia among those players.
We are going to need the passing accuracy to rise and fewer sacks to be taken because how Fields accrued his rushing production is not exactly stable, even if he does have a high floor in overall output.
Fields had the most rushing yards ever in a season for a quarterback on runs of 20 or more yards (429), which was more than both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts combined last year.
When these teams hooked up last season, Fields was the QB27 (8.8 points) in Week 2, throwing just 11 total passes and rushing for 20 yards.
When they later met again in Week 13, Fields was the QB6 (19.3 points). He did not throw a touchdown in that game but had a 55-yard rushing touchdown anchor his scoring line.
In that game, Fields was 20-of-25 passing for 10.2 yards per pass attempt. His top four wide receivers in routes run that game were Chase Claypool (23), Dante Pettis (22), Equanimeous St. Brown (19), and Byron Pringle (10).
His layout of surrounding pass catchers is much stronger to kick off 2023.
The Packers were a unique defense last season.
They were third in the NFL in passing points allowed per game (11.3), but they also faced the fewest pass attempts in the league.
On a per-attempt basis, Green Bay was 28th in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.5 Y/A), 25th in yards allowed per completion (11.4 yards), 20th in completion rate (65.6%), and 21st in touchdown rate (4.4%) allowed to passers.
They also were 26th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks.
Fields himself ran for 20 and 71 yards in his two games against the Packers, while Jalen Hurts (157 yards), Josh Allen (49 yards), and Daniel Jones (37 yards) all added multiple rushing points in their games against Green Bay.
Fields is a high-upside QB1 to open the season.
We do want to see the Bears up their tempo, play volume, and passing aggressiveness right away this season. If we get all of those elements working together with their added talent paired with Fields’ dual-threat ability then we are cooking with gas.
If Chicago remains slow and run-heavy, then Fields is forced to live on efficiency and rushing production again firsthand, which we want to be icing on the cake we are looking to have and eat.
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich's regular content, including positional rankings and chats, click below to purchase our season-long fantasy package.
Purchase