The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Falcons and Panthers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Carolina | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 18.25 | Implied Total | 21.75 | ||
| 20.4 | 19 | Points/Gm | 21.5 | 15 |
| 22.0 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 22.7 | 21 |
| 57.4 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 59.5 | 27 |
| 64.9 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 20 |
| 5.3 | 17 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
| 5.4 | 17 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 25 |
| 49.49% | 5 | Rush% | 55.29% | 2 |
| 50.51% | 28 | Pass% | 44.71% | 31 |
| 44.24% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 46.21% | 26 |
| 55.76% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 53.79% | 7 |
- Since 2010, No. 1 Overall draft picks at quarterback are 0-8-1 (1-7-1 ATS) in their first career start. 0-5-1 (1-4-1 ATS) in Week 1.
- The last No. 1 overall pick at quarterback to win outright in Week 1 was David Carr in 2002.
- Carolina was a league-worst 1-10 in games in which they trailed in 2022.
- The Panthers scored a touchdown on just 17.6% (3-of-17) of their drives that began in opponents' territory, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Panthers had the lowest success rate (38.0%) throwing outside of the numbers in 2022.
- Atlanta threw the ball 13.0% below expectation on all downs (31st in the league) with a rate of -18.0% on 1st and 10 situations (32nd).
- 17.8% of the Atlanta pass attempts were deemed inaccurate via the quarterback in 2022, the highest rate in the league.
- Opponents reached the red zone or scored before the red zone on 40.0% of their drives against the Falcons, the second-highest rate in the league behind the Bears.
- 43.5% of the Atlanta rushing attempts gained five or more yards, the highest rate in the league in 2022.
- Atlanta averaged 2.2 sacks plus takeaways per game defensively in 2022, the fewest in the league.
- Carolina averaged 3.0 per game, 29th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Bryce Young: Carolina has gone through quarterback hell the past two seasons, so a major swing on a premier prospect was finally warranted.
Over the past two seasons, Carolina quarterbacks collectively were 31st in the NFL in completion rate (58.2%), 30th in yards per pass attempt (6.5 Y/A), and dead last in touchdown passes (30) and quarterback rating (73.6).
Young is a decorated quarterback from one of the largest programs in the country.
He won the Heisman Trophy in 2021 and then followed that up last season as the only quarterback in Alabama history to throw for more than 3,000 yards in back-to-back seasons.
From a career production stance, Young ranks in the 98th percentile in career passing production in my prospect model.
Young took 31 dropbacks this preseason, connecting on 14-of-24 passes (58.3%) for 129 yards (5.4 Y/A) and a touchdown. He did not throw an interception and took three sacks.
Rookie quarterbacks have struggled in season openers, with only Marcus Mariota and Trevor Lawrence throwing more than two touchdown passes in their Week 1 debut since 2010. 13 of those 25 rookie passers during that span threw one or fewer touchdown passes in Week 1.
With limited ceiling appeal, Young is a back-end QB2 to open the year.
The positive news is that Atlanta is not a daunting matchup on paper, although we will see how much the additions of Jessie Bates, Bud Dupree, Calais Campbell, and Jeff Okudah change things for this season.
I would anticipate Atlanta to make strides forward defensively this season, but believing that they vault into a top defensive unit takes a legit step of faith.
Atlanta was 31st in the NFL in pressure rate (24.3%) on passing plays a year ago and 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.437).
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