The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Jets and Bills on Monday night.

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BuffaloRank@NY JetsRank
-2 2
23.25 Implied Total21.25
27.73Points/Gm17.429
19.14Points All./Gm18.62
65.111Plays/Gm63.218
63.212Opp. Plays/Gm64.323
6.12Off. Yards/Play5.026
5.17Def. Yards/Play4.82
40.56%22Rush%37.71%29
59.44%11Pass%62.29%4
38.79%5Opp. Rush %45.01%24
61.21%28Opp. Pass %54.99%9

  • Games involving the Jets averaged a league-low 36.0 combined points per game in 2022.
  • The Jets allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 15.6% of their drives in 2022, the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Bills scored a touchdown on just 4-of-22 drives (18.2%) against the Jets in 2022 compared to a 29.2% rate against everyone else.
  • Buffalo averaged 1.68 points per drive against the Jets compared to 2.51 points per drive versus the rest of their opponents.
  • Buffalo turned the ball over on 15.9% of their drives in 2022, the highest rate in the league. It was their highest turnover rate per drive in a season since 2012.
  • 21.3% of the rushing attempts by the Jets resulted in a first down or touchdown in 2022, the lowest rate in the NFL.
  • 38.6% of the Buffalo passing yardage came after the catch in 2022, the lowest rate in the league.

Warren Sharp Rich Hribar Fantasy Football Package

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen: 2022 was the third consecutive season in which Allen threw at least 35 passing scores with over 4,000 yards through the air.

From a rushing perspective, Allen added another 762 yards and seven scores via his legs. He has rushed for at least six touchdowns in all five of his years in the league.

Allen played half of the season with a partially torn UCL in his throwing elbow, which did have an impact on his play.

Allen suffered the injury in Week 9 against the Jets.

Before the injury, Allen was averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt with an 8.7% inaccurate target rate.

From Week 10 on, he averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt with an 11.7% inaccuracy rate.

The Jets gave opposing quarterbacks fits last season and Allen was no exception.

In those games, Allen was 34-of-61 passing (55.7%) for 352 yards (5.8 Y/A) with one touchdown and two interceptions (64.4 rating).

Against everyone else, Allen completed 64.2% of his passes for 7.8 Y/A and 100.5 rating.

How much you want to factor in Allen’s elbow injury is a question, but the Jets were an issue for everyone as a pass defense.

They allowed a league-low 10.4 passing points per game.

They allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just three games and just two quarterbacks to throw more than two touchdowns against them, both coming over the opening three weeks of the season.

While Allen struggled as a passer in those meetings, he still showcased what makes him so good for fantasy. His legs give him added outs.

Allen was still the QB3 (24.8 points) and QB7 (20.6 points) in those games because he rushed for 96 yards and two touchdowns in the first game in Week 9 and then rushed for 47 yards and a touchdown in the rematch in Week 14.

Even if we are not dialing in ceiling expectations here out of respect for the New York pass defense, Allen has the rushing upside to create a higher floor than most in tough matchups as a QB1.

Aaron Rodgers: After back-to-back MVP campaigns, Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game took a major step backward last season after trading Davante Adams.

Rodgers was the QB28 in points per game (14.1) and averaged 13.4 passing points per game, the fewest of his career.

29.7% of Rodgers’ pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage, which led the NFL.

When Rodgers did press the action, he completed just 33.8% of his passes on throws of 20 or more air yards, which was 22nd in the league.

On throws of 30 or more air yards, Rodgers completed just 6-of-40 passes (15.0%,), which was 30th in the league (eight highest).

This situation has an almost identical overlap to what we saw with Tom Brady three years ago.

Like Brady leaving New England, Rodgers is coming off his worst season and outright appeared to be uninterested at times with the offense.

Now, he gets paired with last season’s Rookie of the Year in Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and a bunch of functional ancillary pieces attached to one of the league’s best defenses.

Rodgers no longer has the rushing juice to knock on the door of the opening tier, but we should not be surprised if he closes his career out with lower-end QB1 seasons.

He does get a test out of the gates.

The Bills were not as prestige defensively in 2022 as previous seasons, but they were still 10th in passing points allowed per game (12.4).

Rodgers faced Buffalo a year ago and was QB20 (15.2 points), completing 19-of-30 passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns with an interception.

The one added out here though is the absence of Von Miller.

With Miller on the field a year ago, Buffalo pressured the opposing quarterback on 37.2% of passing plays with a 7.3% sack rate.

With Miller off the field, the Bills were 27th in the league in pressure rate (29.0%) and 22nd in sack rate (6.0%).

The team added Leonard Floyd in the offseason to offset some of that damage.

Rodgers failed to take advantage of soft matchups a year ago, and I do expect some initial ramp-up with this offensive line still a question and the pass catchers outside of Wilson having their questions.

Rodgers is a QB2 for me to open the season.

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Running Back

James Cook: Cook only totaled 110 touches during his rookie season, but he averaged 6.2 yards per touch.

27.0% of Cook’s 89 carries resulted in a first down or touchdown, which ranked sixth among 66 running backs last season with 50 or more carries.

In the passing game, Cook averaged 1.43 yards per route run, which was 16th among all backs to run 100 or more routes last season.

He was targeted on 25.4% of his routes, which ranked 10th among the same group.

With Cook, we are talking about higher-value targets as well.

78.1% of Cook’s targets as a rookie came beyond the line of scrimmage, which ranked seventh among all running backs to run 100 or more pass routes.

No other running back with as many targets as Cook had in 2022 had a higher rate of targets come beyond the line of scrimmage.

While Cook did not get a lot of touches as a rookie, he was hyper-efficient with them.

Now with Devin Singletary no longer on the roster, Cook is set up to have his role expand in year two.

The rub is that the Bills have not used their running backs all that much, particularly as runners. Buffalo running backs combined for 291 carries in 2022, the fewest in the league.

That said, Cook did operate as the lead running back this preseason with minimal resistance.

Josh Allen played 27 snaps this preseason, and Cook was on the field for 22 of those plays.

Over the past few seasons, when the Bills have had one lead back, that running back has delivered fantasy points.

Buffalo has had just 11 games in the past two seasons in which an individual running back cleared 15 touches.

But in those games, those backs have averaged 17.4 PPR points per game with seven RB1 scoring weeks.

Damien Harris missed a chunk of the preseason with a knee injury. In the final preseason game, Cook played the opening nine snaps before conceding a goal-line carry to Harris, just to keep us honest.

We are going to need those short-yardage snaps because there have not been many of those opportunities for running backs in this offense.

Buffalo running backs had just seven total carries inside of the 5-yard line last season, which was 31st in the league. In 2021, they had just 12, which was 23rd.

The Jets allowed 4.2 YPC to running backs (12th), 12.1 rushing points per game to backfields (11th), and 9.1 receiving points per game (16th) to the position.

In two games against the Jets, Buffalo running backs rushed 25 times for just 87 yards (3.5 YPC).

Cook has the upside to vault into RB1 status if he has this backfield and all of the money touches to himself, but with respect to the Jets and the potential that Harris can still make an impact at the goal line, I am handling Cook as an RB2 in Week 1.

Jets RBs: Both Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook are expected to be active on Monday Night and share this backfield.

The Jets selected Hall as the first running back taken in the 2022 draft, and he immediately showcased his explosion and versatility to justify the choice.

Hall averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 11.5 yards per reception with five touchdowns. His 2.0 yards per route run was second among running backs.

No running back in the league who handled as many opportunities as he did averaged more yards per touch than Hall’s 6.9 yards.

Unfortunately, Hall only appeared in seven games and handled 99 touches since he tore his ACL in October.

We should expect Hall’s workload to be managed here, which makes him a volatile FLEX play and a splash-play-dependent option for single-game DFS.

The Jets were exposed with Hall out of the lineup last season.

Non-Hall running backs on the roster rushed 258 times for 947 yards (3.7 YPC) with just a 28.2% success rate.

With both Hall and Cook being capable running backs in all components of the offense, it makes it extremely hard to diagnose how each is going to be used to open the season.

If the Jets have a goal-line carry, who gets the carry?

Will this be a series-by-series rotation or do the Jets have a pre-determined snap count in mind for Hall?

These are questions we do not have answers to entering the week.

But because Hall is so good on his own, it also threatens the upside and usage for Cook.

That also makes Cook a volatile RB3/FLEX option.

Cook appeared in every game last season for the first time in his career, but his output did take a hit.

Cook averaged a career-low 4.4 yards per carry while his 69.0 rushing yards per game were his fewest in a season since 2018 when he was coming off an ACL injury.

As a receiver, Cook averaged a career-low 2.3 receptions per game.

Buffalo had a unique season defending the run a year ago.

They were first in the NFL in allowing the fewest yards before contact per carry to running backs (0.63).

But they were dead last in allowing the most yards after contact per carry (3.73) to the position.

The Bills allowed a plethora of huge gains and splash runs. They allowed a first down or touchdown on 25.7% of running back runs, which was 28th in the league.

Warren Sharp Rich Hribar Fantasy Football Package

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is just one of two players (Davante Adams being the other) to have had 100 or more receptions in each of the past three years.

In 2022, Diggs was the Buffalo passing game as he accounted for 27.9% of the Buffalo targets (seventh among wide receivers), 29.9% of the receptions (third), and 33.3% of the receiving yards (sixth).

He carries an attachment to Josh Allen, and Buffalo did not add a significant target threat this offseason to push Diggs off of seeing a robust target share.

The Jets were a miserable matchup for wideouts last season, especially feature options.

They allowed the fewest yards per game to opposing WR1 options (51.0) and were fifth in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 targets (12.3).

The Jets also allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers (13.6), allowing a league-low 55.3% completion rate to wide receiver targets on the perimeter.

The Bills were aware of this.

Diggs played 44.8% of his snaps in the slot against the Jets last season, his highest rate versus any team.

That said, Diggs still had to work for his production in this matchup.

In the Week 9 matchup, Diggs caught 5-of-10 targets for 93 yards, anchored by a 42-yard reception on the opening drive.

When these teams hooked up later in Week 14, Diggs caught just 3-of-5 targets for 37 yards.

We certainly are not benching Diggs or knocking him far down in ranks because he can get over against anyone and commands targets, but this is not a spot where we are banking on a spike week as the highest probability outcome.

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