The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Saints and Titans.

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TennesseeRank@New OrleansRank
3.0 Spread -3.0
19.0 Implied Total 22.0
17.528Points/Gm19.422
21.112Points All./Gm20.39
58.431Plays/Gm59.725
64.726Opp. Plays/Gm63.314
5.124Off. Yards/Play5.610
5.419Def. Yards/Play54
49.09%6Rush%45.81%12
50.91%27Pass%54.19%21
35.45%1Opp. Rush %45.72%25
64.55%32Opp. Pass %54.28%8

  • Tennessee scored on just 27.8% of their possessions in 2022, the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Titans punted the ball on 47.6% of their drives in 2022, the highest rate in the league.
  • Opponents punted on 44.7% of their drives against the Titans, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Saints allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game in standard (63.3) and full-PPR formats (81.9) to skill players in 2022, behind only the 49ers.
  • The Saints allowed a league-low 4.6 yards per play on first down in 2022.
  • Tennessee was second in the NFL last season in run rate on first down 63.9% despite ranking 21st in success rate on first down runs (31.9%).
  • The Titans averaged 8.2 yards per passing play on first down, second in the league.
  • The Saints allowed just 5.4 yards per passing play in 2022, third in the NFL.
  • The Titans had a league-high 67.7% success rate against opposing rushing plays in 2022.
  • 76.6% of the yardage allowed by the Titans in 2022 came via passing, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Titans led the NFL by converting 93.8% (15-of-16) of their goal-to-go possessions for touchdowns but ranked last in the league with just 16 of those possessions.

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Quarterback

Derek Carr: Carr is coming off a disappointing season with the Raiders.

His 60.8% completion rate was his lowest in a season since his rookie year while he posted a career-high 2.8% interception rate.

His 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 234.8 passing yards per game were his lowest in a season since 2017.

Through nine NFL seasons, Carr has finished higher than QB19 in points per game just once.

While that leaves Carr as QB2 for the fantasy season big picture, New Orleans fielded one of the most efficient receiving groups in the league last season.

As a team, the Saints were third in the NFL in yards per route run (1.45), seventh in yards per catch (11.7), and 11th in the rate of targets to result in a first down or touchdown (36.7%).

While Carr is coming off a disappointing season that forced his exit from Las Vegas, asking him to be as efficient as a 35-year-old Andy Dalton is not exactly asking for a ton either.

Carr only took eight total dropbacks this preseason and it was all that the Saints needed to see after he connected on 6-of-8 passes for 70 yards (8.8 Y/A) and a touchdown.

The Saints also have our No. 2 easiest passing schedule this season.

They open the season against a Tennessee team that was the largest pass funnel in the NFL last season.

The Titans have a potentially elite run defense again and still have a number of question marks on the back end.

Tennessee allowed the most passing points per game last year (17.0) and was 22nd in points allowed per pass attempt (0.432).

The Titans had a plethora of injuries defensively a year ago while starters Kristian Fulton and Amani Hooker combined to play just 223 dropbacks together during the season, but the defense posted better peripheral stats across the board with them off the field.

The only other addition to this secondary was Sean Murphy-Bunting, who struggled the past two seasons exiting Tampa Bay.

While the combination of efficiency this passing game can create paired with the Tennessee pass defense can create a cocktail that breeds efficient pass attempts, we do need the Saints to keep their foot on the gas.

There is potential for this game to be slow as both of these teams were at the bottom of the league in plays run per game in 2022.

The Saints were dead last in the NFL in plays run per game over the final nine weeks of 2023, paired with being 27th in dropback rate over that span.

All said, Carr is a matchup-based QB2 who can flirt with QB1 production if we get the proper game environment.

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