The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Colts and Jaguars.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | Spread | 5 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 20.0 | ||
| 23.9 | 9 | Points/Gm | 17.0 | 30 |
| 21.4 | 14 | Points All./Gm | 25.1 | 28 |
| 63.3 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 12 |
| 65.4 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 22 |
| 5.7 | 9 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 30 |
| 5.4 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 11 |
| 40.60% | 21 | Rush% | 39.80% | 23 |
| 59.40% | 12 | Pass% | 60.20% | 10 |
| 42.11% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 46.79% | 27 |
| 57.89% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 53.21% | 6 |
- The Colts have not won a Week 1 game since 2013, the longest drought for any team in the league.
- Indianapolis has not covered a Week 1 game since 2014, the longest drought in the league.
- 43.9% (25-of-57) of the Indianapolis scoring plays in 2022 were touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Colts scored 10.6 offensive touchdowns below expectations in 2022, the worst in the league.
- 48.6% of the Jacksonville passing plays were outside of the numbers, second in the NFL.
- The Jaguars averaged 2.08 points per drive in 2022 (11th in the league), their highest rate as a franchise since 2007 (and their second-highest in a season since joining the NFL).
- The Colts averaged a league-high 5.5 sacks plus turnovers per game offensively in 2022.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: Through eight weeks the Jaguars and Lawrence were struggling, with many questioning him living up to his hype entering the league.
Jacksonville had a 2-6 record at the time, with Lawrence completing 62.5% of his passes (27th) for 6.6 yards per pass attempt (23rd). Lawrence’s 84.8 rating was 22nd over that span, sandwiched between Kyler Murray and Matt Ryan.
Lawrence had 10 passing touchdowns and six interceptions over his opening eight games.
Lawrence then tapped into the upside that followed his collegiate career.
Over the final 11 games of the season, the Jaguars sported an 8-3 record, rallied to win the AFC South, and even won a playoff game.
During that span, Lawrence completed 67.7% of his passes (seventh) for 7.1 Y/A (17th) with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
His 97.5 rating was seventh in the league over that span while ranking fifth among all quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback (0.14).
Lawrence had eight QB1 scoring weeks over his final 12 regular season starts.
2022 also gave us an indication that Lawrence is a talent elevator with all of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram having the best seasons of their careers all at once with the common denominator being Lawrence.
Shane Steichen kept Gus Bradley on board to run the defense. In two starts against the Colts in 2022, Lawrence was the QB12 (18.5 points) and the QB4 (24.9 points).
Lawrence only threw for 235 and 165 yards in those games but completed 86.5% of his passes (45-of-52) in those contests. He averaged just 5.5 air yards per attempt as the Colts played zone coverage on 80.4% of his dropbacks. They were Cover-3 for 58.9% of those plays, their highest rate versus an opponent in 2022.
We need the Colts to press the scoreboard here while still anticipating them to play a zone-heavy scheme against Lawrence. We may not get the overall volume needed for Lawrence to provide a spike week unless the Colts out-kick their implied production, which makes him a floor-based QB1 option.
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