The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Ravens and Texans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Houston | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
10 | Spread | -10 | ||
16.75 | Implied Total | 26.75 | ||
17.0 | 30 | Points/Gm | 20.4 | 20 |
24.7 | 27 | Points All./Gm | 18.8 | 3 |
59.7 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 19 |
66.7 | 32 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.2 | 7 |
4.7 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 12 |
5.7 | 26 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 13 |
39.21% | 24 | Rush% | 50.18% | 3 |
60.79% | 9 | Pass% | 49.82% | 30 |
50.53% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 38.51% | 3 |
49.47% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 61.49% | 30 |
- Baltimore is 11-4 in Week 1 games under John Harbaugh. Only the Eagles (12-3) have a better Week 1 record over that span. Their 11-4 record against the spread is the best in the league.
- Baltimore has outscored opponents by 206 points in those Week 1 games, the largest point differential in the league (even with a better record, the Eagles are +158 over that span).
- Including this week, Houston has been an underdog now in 24 straight games dating back to 2021, the longest ongoing streak in the league.
- Week 1 Rookie quarterbacks are 6-15-1 straight up since 2010.
- Since Harbaugh has been the coach of the Ravens, rookie quarterbacks are 7-23 against the Ravens, with a 2-16 record playing in Baltimore.
- 42.0% of the Houston drives in 2022 ended without a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
- 42.7% of the yardage allowed by Houston in 2022 was via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- Baltimore averaged 1.3 more rushing yards per play than their opponents in 2022, the largest differential in the league.
- Houston averaged -1.4 yards fewer per rushing play than their opponent, 31st in the league.
- The Ravens averaged 87.5 explosive rushing yards (gains of 10 or more yards) per game, second in the NFL.
- The Texans averaged 29.9 explosive rushing yards per game, 31st in the NFL.
- Houston allowed 91.1 explosive rushing yards per game, the most in the league in 2022.
- Baltimore allowed 30.7 explosive rushing yards per game, second-fewest in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (TRUST): The Ravens have invested a lot into Jackson and this offense this offseason. Not only did Jackson sign a new contract, but the team added Todd Monken as the offensive coordinator while adding Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham as pass catchers.
Over the past four seasons with Greg Roman, the Ravens have ranked 27th, 30th, 26th, and 22nd in pace of play in neutral game scripts.
The offenses under Monken have ranked eighth, 11th, fourth, and 28th.
Monken’s offenses have averaged a pass rate over expectation of +1.8% while Baltimore has been below pass rate expectations by -5.5% under Roman.
We will get our first look at Jackson and his new offense in optimal conditions as a massive home favorite.
Jackson has been a hot starter, averaging 24.8 fantasy points per game across four Week 1 starts with 12 touchdown passes to just one interception in those games.
Houston allowed the second-fewest passing points per game last season (10.7) but only because opponents stopped throwing the ball versus them.
While that is a potential outcome here, I do expect Baltimore to tune things up out of the gates and play aggressively. Houston allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt (23rd) and 11.2 yards per completion (21st).
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