The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Chargers and Dolphins.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Miami | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
24.0 | Implied Total | 27.0 | ||
23.8 | 11 | Points/Gm | 23.4 | 12 |
24.1 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 23.1 | 23 |
59.9 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 67.9 | 2 |
64.3 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.6 | 3 |
6 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 21 |
5.3 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 29 |
38.03% | 26 | Rush% | 34.91% | 31 |
61.97% | 7 | Pass% | 65.09% | 2 |
38.69% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 44.59% | 23 |
61.31% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 55.41% | 10 |
- The Chargers ran 9.1 more offensive plays per game than their opponents in 2022, the most in the league.
- The Chargers averaged -1.6 fewer yards per rushing play than their opponent in 2022, the worst differential in the league.
- Miami had a league-low eight offensive possessions that began in opponents' territory in 2022. The league average was 17.4.
- The Chargers allowed a league-high 6.7 yards per play on first down in 2022.
- Miami averaged just 5.2 yards per play on first down against the Chargers in their matchup, their third-lowest versus any team on the season.
- The Chargers allowed a league-high 17 touchdowns from outside of the red zone in 2022.
- The Dolphins were fifth in the league in success rate throwing inside of the numbers (57.9%) in 2022, but 20th in success rate outside (47.2%).
- Against the Chargers, Miami was 6-of-14 (42.9%) for 52 yards (3.7 Y/A) inside of the numbers.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: Everything that could go wrong in 2022 for Herbert did go wrong.
He averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 9.9 yards per completion, and took a sack on 5.2% of his dropbacks. All the worst rates of his early career.
After touchdown rates of 5.2% and 5.7% over his first two seasons, Herbert posted a 3.6% touchdown rate this past season.
From a rushing perspective, Herbert rushed the fewest times per game over his first three years in the league (3.2 attempts per game). He averaged 2.7 yards per rush after 4.3 yards and 4.8 yards per run in his first two seasons.
Herbert suffered a chest fracture in September that he played through and then a torn labrum in January.
Outside of his injuries, the Chargers had all of Rashawn Slater, Corey Linsley, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams on the field together last season for just 20 total plays.
With their primary wideouts missing so much time, Austin Ekeler led the team in targets (127) followed by Josh Palmer with 107.
Palmer ran the most pass routes (618) followed by DeAndre Carter (496). As a byproduct, Herbert averaged just 6.4 air yards per pass attempt, ahead of only Daniel Jones and Matt Ryan last season.
But for the small sample size with this offense having healthy weaponry, Herbert was still excellent.
Herbert took just 175 dropbacks last season with both Allen and Williams on the field. On those plays, Herbert posted:
- 0.17 expected points added per dropback (would have ranked third over the full season)
- 50.8% success rate (would have ranked second)
- 7.9 yards per pass attempt (would have ranked third)
- 77.1% completion rate (would have led the league)
- 106.4 rating (would have ranked second)
Outside of changing out offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi for Kellen Moore, to give Herbert an added weapon and more depth behind Allen and Williams, the Chargers used their first-round pick on Quentin Johnston.
Herbert was solid against Miami in 2022, closing their Week 14 matchup as the QB10 (19.5 points). In that contest, Herbert connected on 39-of-51 passes for 367 yards and a touchdown.
Miami has made some changes defensively with the additions of David Long and Eli Apple, but the primary change made is turning this defense over to Vic Fangio.
Over his past 10 seasons in the league. Fangio has had a top-10 defense in passing yardage allowed eight times.
Herbert is no stranger to Fangio from the defensive coordinator’s time in Denver.
In four starts against Fangio’s Denver defenses, he closed as the QB6 (21.2 points), QB18 (16.7 points), QB8 (19.7 points), and QB11 (17.7 points).
That middle to lower-end QB1 area is right where I am treating him to open the year. Herbert is capable of being a front-end quarterback, but respecting Fangio and the talent level of this defense limits the pure runout of him accessing that ceiling in my opinion.
Over those four games, Fangio respected Herbert by only blitzing 23.2% of the time (the defense's base blitz rate was 26.4%) but had success in doing so.
Against the blitz, Herbert connected on 57.9% of his passes for 6.1 Y/A and an 82.5 rating. When those defenses did not blitz, Herbert hit on 69.0% of his passes for 7.4 Y/A and a 97.1 rating.
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