The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Steelers and 49ers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Pittsburgh | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 19.5 | ||
| 25.9 | 6 | Points/Gm | 18.1 | 26 |
| 17.2 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 20.4 | 10 |
| 61.0 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 65.2 | 10 |
| 61.0 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 4 |
| 5.9 | 5 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 27 |
| 4.9 | 3 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 20 |
| 48.65% | 7 | Rush% | 45.09% | 13 |
| 51.35% | 26 | Pass% | 54.91% | 20 |
| 39.38% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 43.16% | 15 |
| 60.62% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 56.84% | 18 |
- The 49ers allowed a league-low 1.52 points per drive in 2022. The league average was 1.91 points per drive.
- The 49ers allowed the fewest standard (58.8) and full-PPR (80.5) fantasy points per game to opponents in 2022.
- San Francisco had 10 offensive plays of 50 or more yards in 2022, tied for the most in the NFL.
- Pittsburgh had just one offensive play of 50 or more yards in 2022, tied for the fewest in the NFL.
- The Steelers scored 8.8 offensive touchdowns below expectations of yardage gained in 2022, ahead of only the Colts (-10.6).
- Last season, the Steelers scored just two touchdowns from outside of the red zone, the fewest in the NFL. Only two teams since 2000 have scored fewer in a season with two other teams also scoring just two.
- Pittsburgh averaged 6.8 yards on their touchdowns in 2022. No team over the past 30 years has averaged fewer yards on touchdown plays.
- 42.9% of Pittsburgh touchdowns were via passing, the lowest rate in the league.
- 80.6% of the touchdowns scored against the Steelers were via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- The Steelers were 7-0 in games in which they scored first compared to 2-8 when their opponent led first.
- The 49ers were a league-best 7-1 in games in which their opponent scored first.
- Just 14.9% of the San Francisco possessions were three plays and then a punt, the lowest rate in the NFL in 2022. The league average was 21.4%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brock Purdy: During his five starts to close the regular season, Purdy averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game. He was the QB7 in overall scoring over that span.
Now, that small sample was inflated by a massive 8.8% touchdown rate. There is no way that is remotely sustainable. For context, Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with a 6.3% touchdown rate over the full season.
We have seen this system coax efficiency out of several passers above their perceived talent level, but we also do not have a large sample of Purdy having to punch up when he started.
It was not until the postseason that Purdy faced one elite pass-rushing defense last season. Before facing Dallas in the playoffs, just one of Purdy’s six starts came against a defense that was higher than 15th in pressure rate while three of those six starts came against teams 20th or lower in pressuring the opposing passer.
That is relevant because when Purdy was pressured as a rookie, we saw a different outcome.
Purdy completed just 47.7% of his passes when under pressure (24th) compared to a 73.8% rate when kept clean (fourth).
His inaccurate target rate spiked from 7.1% kept clean (eighth) to 21.5% under pressure (43rd) out of 47 passers to throw 100 or more passes last season.
We are only working with a small sample in both directions, but there is at least some concern with a passer having a small sample size of success dictated by throwing from only clean pockets.
The Steelers were 25th in the league in terms of pressure rate on passing plays (29.8%) a year ago, but their pressure rate with T.J. Watt on the field was 35.0%, which would have ranked fifth in the league over the full season.
We also got a glimpse in the preseason that the 49ers still are not asking Purdy to do much, especially factoring in his elbow injury.
In two preseason appearances, Purdy threw just 21.4% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, which was 77th out of 89 passers to throw 10 or more passes. 71.0% of his passing yardage came via yards after the catch, third highest among those 89 passers.
51.4% of his passing yards as a rookie came after the catch, so this is what the offense is going to ask of him. Give the football to the good players. The good news is that this offense is littered with surrounding talent.
With the 49ers having offensive line question marks to open the season paired with the Steelers having a healthy Watt available for this defense, I would anticipate an extremely quick passing game from the 49ers.
With Watt on the field a year ago, the Steelers allowed a 58.6% completion rate, 6.7 yards per pass attempt, and a 65.7 rating. With Watt off the field, they surrendered a 63.6% completion rate, 8.2 yards per pass attempt, and a 105.0 rating to opposing passers.
Purdy has enough weaponry to get there on YAC production, but I am handling him as more of a QB2 in this matchup, expecting the inevitable regression toward the mean for his touchdown rate. If Purdy does pop here in the same fashion that he ended last season, then he is going to be tough to leave out of the QB1 mix moving forward.
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