Bears vs Rams Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams Sunday Night Football game on November 17, 2019 at 8:20 pm ET.

Chicago	Rank	@	LA Rams	Rank
6.5		Spread	-6.5
17.5		Implied Total	24
18	27	Points/Gm	25.1	10
17.4	4	Points All./Gm	21.2	16
59	29	Plays/Gm	66.1	6
66.6	27	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.7	28
38.6%	22	Rush%	37.3%	25
61.4%	11	Pass%	62.7%	8
38.6%	9	Opp. Rush %	40.8%	17
61.4%	24	Opp. Pass %	59.2%	16

The Bears rank 31st in yards per play offensively (4.4) while the Rams rank fifth in yards per play allowed defensively (5.0).
The Rams rank fourth in the league in expected points added via their rushing defense (42.6) while the Bears rank eighth (23.6).
The Rams are first in explosive play rate allowed defensively (4.00%) while the Bears rank second (4.01%).
These two teams combined to score one touchdown on 24 possessions in a 15-6 Bears win a year ago, while they combined to throw seven interceptions.
Chicago has scored a touchdown on 8-of-58 possessions (13.8%) at home this season, ahead of only the Dolphins (13.2%) and Jets (12.3%).
The Rams are first in the league in quarterback hurries (62) while the Bears are second (54).
Jared Goff has faced five teams in the top half of the league in pressure rate. In those games, he’s averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 9.3 fantasy points per game.
In his other four games against teams in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate, Goff is averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt and 20.5 fantasy points per game.
In those five games, the Rams have scored a touchdown on 9-of-59 possessions (15.3%) as opposed to 28.3% (13-of-46) in the other four games.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Cooper Kupp: Kupp is coming off a complete zero last week on just four targets (9.5%). It’s hard to get excited about the Rams passing game here overall, but Kupp runs 75% of his routes from the slot,. The Bears are 10th overall to opposing slot wideouts, but Buster Skrine has allowed 32 receptions in coverage, fourth-most of all slot corners.
Robert Woods: Woods is coming off a 7-95 game on 11 targets. His 26.2% target share was his highest in a game since Week 1. Bears LCB Kyle Fuller has allowed 45 receptions in his coverage, which is the third-most in the league. Woods runs 48% of his routes at RWR — the highest rate of the Rams wideouts — with Kupp at 10% and Josh Reynolds at 25%.
Gerald Everett: After catching eight passes for 74 yards over his previous three games, Everett caught eight passes for 68 yards a week ago. Everett now has been a top-six scorer at tight end in four of the past six games. Since Week 4, only Travis Kelce (56) has more targets than Everett’s 49 targets. The Bears are 27th in receptions allowed per game (6.3) to opposing tight ends.
Allen Robinson: Robinson is coming off a season-high 39.1% target share after two down weeks where he was a WR4 or lower. In this game a year ago, Robinson caught 5-of-8 targets for 42 yards. He’ll draw Jalen Ramsey for the 60% of his routes on the boundary. Since joining the Rams, Ramsey has allowed 14-of-17 targets in his coverage to be completed for 202 yards (116.2 rating), but no touchdowns. Robinson may be worse off running 40% of his routes in the slot as Nickell-Robey Coleman ranks first in yards allowed per coverage snap in slot coverage this season (0.51).

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Jared Goff: We have no reason to break formula with Goff as we play him based on if the opposing team can rush the passer or not. The Bears rank sixth in the league in pressure rate (27.2%). It also doesn’t help Goff that the Rams just lost two more offensive linemen in center Brian Allen and Rob Havenstein. Goff had the worst game of his career when these teams played a year ago, completing 45.6% of his passes with four interceptions and 4.1 yards per pass attempt.
Mitchell Trubisky: Trubisky is 28th in passer rating under pressure this season (46.4) while the Rams are second in the league pressure rate (29.9%). Like Goff, Trubisky struggled in this matchup a year ago, completing 53.3% of his passes for 3.7 Y/A with one touchdown and three interceptions.
Todd Gurley: Gurley’s 73 yards last week were his most in a game since Week 1. His 74% snap rate was his highest since Week 5, but all in all, managed just 12 touches while Malcolm Brown (five) and Darrell Henderson (four) combined for nine. Chicago has allowed 101.6 yards rushing and seven rushing touchdowns to backs over their past five games after allowing 58.8 yards and one rushing score over their opening four. Given the Rams’ offensive line injuries and Gurley’s uneven timeshare, he takes a step of faith to call an RB2 still despite those numbers.
Josh Reynolds: Reynolds tallied five targets (11.9%) last week filling in for Brandin Cooks, who has already been declared out for Week 11. Reynolds had 3-36 in this game a year ago, while it’s hard to go this deep in the passing game when objectively pegging Goff to struggle.
David Montgomery: Montgomery falls here because he injured his ankle in practice this week and is a game-time decision on Sunday. With this game on Sunday Night, that leaves the cupboard pretty thin for potential pivots if he ends up inactive. Tarik Cohen hasn’t had more than six carries in an NFL game since Week 14 of last season, but he’d be a floor-based pickup to have. Ryan Nall would likely carry the heavier rushing attempts. The matchup isn’t overly great, either, as the Rams are fifth in yards per carry allowed to backfields (3.65).