The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Sunday afternoon game on November 17, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
AtlantaRank@CarolinaRank
-6Spread-6
22.25Implied Total28.25
21.220Points/Gm2512
28.829Points All./Gm25.322
64.714Plays/Gm6513
63.216Opp. Plays/Gm6729
31.3%32Rush%39.7%17
68.7%1Pass%60.3%16
45.7%27Opp. Rush %39.5%13
54.3%6Opp. Pass %60.5%20
  • The Falcons are 6-2 straight up and against the spread versus Carolina under Dan Quinn versus Ron Rivera.
  • The Panthers rank 28th in non-passing fantasy points allowed per game (75.9) while Atlanta ranks 27th (75.6).
  • The four takeaways for the Falcons are the fewest in the league this season and their fewest through nine games of a season in franchise history. 
  • 17.4% of the rushing attempts against Carolina have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 11.3%.
  • The Falcons are 23rd in rushing plays of 10 or more yards (20) on the season.
  • Just 20.3% of the yardage gained by the Falcons has come via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Panthers are the only team in the league with more rushing touchdowns (14) than passing touchdowns (10).
  • Carolina is rushing for 151.8 yards per game at home this season, fourth in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Christian McCaffrey: He’s scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games and has at least 141 yards from scrimmage in every game that wasn’t against the Buccaneers. Atlanta ranks 17th in rushing points allowed per game (13.5) to running backs and are 26th in attempts faced per game (24.2) to the position.
  • Brian Hill: With Devonta Freeman out and Ito Smith on injured reserve, Hill is the defacto lead back for the Falcons. Hill ran 20 times for 61 yards last week and the Falcons undoubtedly have a rushing issue overall. As a road underdog, rushing volume could be fleeting, but the matchup is strong and Hill can tack on receiving work if the game script goes sideways. Carolina has allowed a league-high 17 touchdowns to opposing running backs and is 31st in yards per carry allowed to opposing backs (5.1 YPC).

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Matt Ryan: Ryan is in a similar spot as last week, going against a top passing defense for fantasy. Carolina is fifth in passing points allowed per game (12.2) and seventh in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.8). Ryan threw for just 5.2 yards per attempt last week with a QB15 finish. On the other side, Ryan has a strong track record against the Panthers and this game is tied for the second-highest game total of the week. Ryan has averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game over his past six meetings with Carolina, with a low-scoring week of 18.1 points over that span.
  • Julio Jones: Jones has at least nine targets in each of his past four games with 25.3% of the team targets over that span. The Panthers have been good against the pass, but have been giving to wideouts because they face a league-high 24.9 targets per game to receivers. With no Austin Hooper here, the Falcons will have to rely on their wideouts. Top wide receivers have done damage to Carolina with Davante Adams (7-118), Mike Evans (9-96), and D.J. Chark (8-164-2) posting high-scoring weeks against the Panthers over their past five games. 
  • D.J. Moore: Since Week 5, Moore is seventh among wideouts in target share (27.6%) with four top-20 scoring weeks over those five games played. His only bugaboo is still finding the end zone, with just one touchdown and one end zone target on the season. 
  • Calvin Ridley: Ridley has received just 13.5% and 14.3% of the team targets over his past two games the trade of Mohamed Sanu. In his five games without a touchdown this season, Ridley has finished higher than the WR44 once (WR27). Now the Falcons are down another main target in Hooper, who accounted for 17.7% of the team targets. As mentioned with Jones, Carolina sees the most volume per game going to opposing wideouts and as a byproduct have allowed the most receptions per game to the position (15.8), but they still rank sixth in fantasy points allowed per target to the position (1.53) and have allowed just five touchdowns to the position. 
  • Curtis Samuel: Samuel has been a WR2 or better in three of his past four games. He hasn’t had more than four catches in a game since Week 3 or more than 70 yards in a game since Week 2, but continues to see high-leverage targets. Samuel has a team-leading 15.9 aDOT and five end zone targets. The Falcons have been beatable downfield, allowing a league-high 54.2% completion rate on targets 15-yards or further downfield. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Kyle Allen: Allen hasn’t been a QB1 since his first start of the season, fishing as the QB17 or lower in five of his past six starts. Even with his first 300-yard passing game last week, he managed just 13.5 fantasy points. Prior to last week, the Falcons were one of our favorite targets for quarterback streaming, but adjusted coming out of the bye with Quinn relegating defensive control. In that game last week, Atlanta created pressure on a season-high 33.3% of dropbacks for six sacks. They also improved on third downs, allowing just 3-of-12 to be converted after 53.0% through eight weeks. That showing last week could be a blip on the radar since Atlanta was so poor prior and still 28th in passing points allowed per game (18.9).
  • Russell Gage: Gage has 17.3% and 14.3% of the team targets the past two weeks. With Hooper out, Gage figures to take another step forward since he works in a similar area of the field. The only issue is that he’s another low ceiling slot option, catching 11 passes for 81 yards the past two weeks. Carolina is 19th to opposing slot wideouts.
  • Greg Olsen: Olsen’s best games this season have come in clear matchup plays. His four useful games for fantasy have come against Tampa Bay (twice), Arizona, and now Green Bay. The Falcons are solid in totality to tight ends, ranking 16th in receptions allowed per game (3.7), but have allowed a top-10 fantasy scorer to an opposing tight end in four of their past five games.

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

PIT at CLE | HOU at BAL | NO at TB | ATL at CAR | DAL at DET | JAX at IND | BUF at MIA | NYJ at WAS | DEN at MIN | ARI at SF | CIN at OAK | NE at PHI | CHI at LAR | KAN at LAC