Texans vs Ravens Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon game on November 17, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

Houston	Rank	@	Baltimore	Rank
4		Spread	-4
23		Implied Total	27
26.4	8	Points/Gm	33.3	1
21.2	15	Points All./Gm	21	13
65.2	12	Plays/Gm	67.4	4
62	11	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.6	4
44.1%	8	Rush%	53.1%	2
55.9%	25	Pass%	47.0%	31
32.8%	1	Opp. Rush %	36.0%	5
67.2%	32	Opp. Pass %	64.0%	28

Lamar Jackson ranks first in fantasy points per possession (2.80) while Deshaun Watson ranks third (2.31) among quarterbacks.
The Ravens are first in the league in points per drive (2.95) while the Texans are fourth (2.47).
43.2% of the Ravens offensive drives have reached the red zone, while 28.4% have reached inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, the highest rates in the league. League averages outside of them are 29.8% and 18.0%.
Over the past four weeks, Lamar Jackson has used play-action on a league-high 44.3% of his dropbacks. On those dropbacks, Jackson has posted a league-high 140.8 quarterback rating.
Jackson is just the second quarterback ever to record two games with a perfect 158.3 passer rating in the same season, joining Ben Roethlisberger in 2007.
Baltimore leads the league in yards per rushing play differential than their opponent (1.0 yards) while the Texans are second (0.9).
Baltimore leads the league in percentage of rushing attempts to gain a first down (33.0%) while the Texans rank second (29.1%).
46.8% of the Ravens’ yardage is via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
23.3% of the yardage gained against the Texans has come via rushing, the second-lowest rate in the league.
48.4% of the Ravens offensive touchdowns have come via rushing, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
Just 14.3% of the touchdowns allowed by the Texans have come via rushing (3-of-21), the second-lowest rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Lamar Jackson: Jackson has now been a top-six scorer in seven of his nine games and has gone over 20 fantasy points in every game but one this season. Houston has been a pass-funnel defense, but the Baltimore offense dictates things on their own terms since it is the most unique offense in the league with Jackson under center. Houston is 23rd in passing points allowed per pass attempt (0.48). The most mobile quarterback they’ve faced so far is Gardner Minshew, and they allowed 56 and 34 yards rushing to him in the two meetings.
Marquise Brown: Brown’s usage is frustrating, but his upside and matchup are positive. Brown has run just 17 and 10 pass routes over his two games since returning to the lineup and has cleared four receptions in a game just once. But he is averaging 21.3% of the team targets per game in the league’s highest-scoring offense. Houston has struggled with wideouts in general, but especially speed options. They are 30th in points allowed per game (42.2) to wide receivers with speed players in Tyreek Hill (5-80-2), T.Y. Hilton (6-74-1), Tyrell Williams (3-91-1), and Ted Ginn (7-101) having 17 or more fantasy points against them.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Deshaun Watson: We always look to Watson as an underdog. In 14 career games as an underdog, Watson is averaging 2.21 passing touchdowns, 272.9 passing yards, and 8.3 Y/A compared to 1.78 passing touchdowns, 248.6 yards, and 8.1 Y/A as a favorite. Watson is also excellent against the blitz and the Ravens blitz at the highest rate in the league (49.4%). Against the blitz for his career, Watson has a 70.3% completion rate for 8.7 Y/A and a 106.1 passer rating. Those are two positive data points, but this Ravens defense has been rolling, allowing just one top-12 scoring week on the season and holding Russell Wilson (QB18) and Tom Brady (QB20) to lower-end QB2 games over their past four games.
DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins has at least 11 targets in four consecutive games, with at least 15 fantasy points in five straight. He’s been more of a volume producer this season than a ceiling crasher, but has five straight top-20 scoring weeks in that span. Without Will Fuller on the field, Hopkins has had 36% of the team targets. Hopkins is averaging a career-high 7.6 receptions per game with a career-high 73.9% catch rate, but also a career-low 9.8 yards per reception with a career-low 9.6 aDOT. Hopkins moves around the formation, so he’ll see a bit of everyone in the Baltimore secondary. Hopkins runs 41% of his routes at LWR (Marcus Peters), 36% in the slot (Marlon Humphrey) and 23% at RWR (Jimmy Smith).
Mark Andrews: Andrews has cleared 45 yards receiving in just two of his past seven games, with both coming against a Bengals defense that ranks 32nd in yards per target allowed to opposing tight ends. Houston ranks second in that area (5.81) but has allowed modest fantasy games to Darren Waller (2-11-1), Eric Ebron (4-80-1), Travis Kelce (4-58), and Austin Hooper (6-56).
Mark Ingram: Ingram is touchdown-dependent, but also in a unique spot with this offense creating scoring opportunities for him. 32.1% of Ingram’s fantasy points scored this season have come from inside of the 5-yard line, the highest rate for any of the top-200 scorers on the season. Houston is third in the league in rushing points allowed per game (8.3) to backs. In their first game without J.J. Watt, they held Leonard Fournette to 40 yards rushing on 11 carries.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Kenny Stills: With Fuller out once again, Stills holds some FLEX upside if this game get to the game total, but also carries a low floor. Stills has been the WR69 and the WR40 over his past two games with Fuller sidelined as opposed to a WR20 finish when Fuller left Week 7 early. Stills has had 10.9% of the team targets in the full games with Fuller on the field with one top-40 scoring week. The longest reception allowed by the Ravens to a wideout the past two games has been 25 yards and opposing passers are 2-of-11 for 55 yards and zero touchdowns on throws 15-yards or further downfield in those games.
Darren Fells: With Fells, it’s all about reaching the end zone. In his four games with a touchdown, Fells has been the average TE9. In his other five games, he’s been the average TE35. He is tied for the team lead with five end zone targets, catching all five for scores. The Ravens have allowed just two touchdowns to opposing tight ends and are 12th in fantasy points allowed per target (1.74) to the position.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Carlos Hyde: Hyde has at least 19 touches in four of his past five games, which is the type of volume to keep in play as a volume-based option. His ceiling is limited, however, as all of his work comes via rushing output, with just six catches for 22 yards. Baltimore is allowing 69.8 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry to backfields over their past five weeks.
Duke Johnson: Johnson has been a top-30 scorer in each of his past four games and is coming off a season-high 12 touches in Week 9. Baltimore is fifth in the league in receptions allowed per game (4.0) to backs and haven’t allowed more than three catches to an individual running back since Week 3.