The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Cincinnati Bengals vs Oakland Raiders Sunday afternoon game on November 17, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.
18.75Implied Total29.25
28.828Points All./Gm26.726
63.919Opp. Plays/Gm62.312
52.5%32Opp. Rush %40.5%15
47.5%1Opp. Pass %59.5%18
  • The Bengals have hit their implied team total just once this season, the fewest times in the league.
  • Cincinnati has lost 10 consecutive games on the road, the longest streak in the league.
  • The Bengals have led for just 6.1% of their offensive snaps, the lowest rate in the league. The next lowest team is the Giants at 12.6%.
  • The Bengals’ 40 rushing attempts in Week 10 were the most for a team in a 30-plus-point loss since 1976.
  • Cincinnati has scored a touchdown on 14.3% of their offensive possessions, 29th in the league.
  • Opponents have scored a touchdown on 33.7% of their possessions against the Raiders, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Bengals rank 32nd in yards per pass attempt differential than their opponent (minus-2.44 Y/A).
  • Cincinnati is averaging minus-1.9 yards per rushing play than their opponent, 32nd in the league.
  • Oakland is averaging 0.7 more yards per rushing play than their opponent, third in the league.
  • The Bengals have allowed the most offensive play of 20 or more yards (56) while the Raiders have allowed the second-most (53).

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is up to 20.2 touches per game (ninth) and 104.8 yards from scrimmage per game (sixth). 90.3% of his points are still coming solely from rushing output, which is the highest rate of all backs in the top-24 in seasonal scoring. That is more than fine as a home favorite this week against a Bengals defense that is allowing 17.6 rushing points per game (30th) to opposing backs.
  • Darren Waller: Waller has hit a… roadblock the past few weeks, catching seven passes for 103 yards over the past three games. He’s had just 11.3% of the targets the past two weeks after 26.3% through seven games. This is a good week to rebound against a Bengals defense that is 32nd in yards per target allowed to tight ends (9.8 yards).

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Tyler Boyd: Boyd left last week’s game, but said afterwards that it was just cramping. He was Ryan Finley’s favorite target last week, catching 6-of-8 targets for 62 yards. Oakland is 22nd in defending opposing slot wideouts, where Boyd runs 68% of his routes. They also happen to be 22nd in points allowed to boundary wideouts, where he lines up for the other 32%. 
  • Joe Mixon: Mixon getting a season-high 30 carries in a 36-point loss is one of the weirder oddities of the 2019 season. But Mixon now has 21 and 32 touches over the past two games. He’s still yet to have a rushing touchdown on the season as all three of his scores are one-yard receiving touchdowns. Oakland is coming off allowing 133 total yards to Melvin Gordon and have allowed a receiving touchdown to a running back in four straight games. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Ryan Finley: Finley struggled in his first career start, completing just 53.3% of his passes for 67 yards (5.6 Y/A). His depth of target was 7.1 yards, which was 21st among passers in Week 10. The Raiders have been a passing defense we’ve targeted, but have held streaming types in Chase Daniel (QB16) and Joe Flacco (QB20) to QB2 weeks while allowing three or more touchdown passes to Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Jacoby Brissett. It’s hard to vault Finley as comparable to those options, leaving him only as a matchup-based dart throw in 2QB formats.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Derek Carr: Carr has two QB1 scoring weeks this season. Those came against the Texans and Lions, two identifiable matchups for ceiling production. This week he gets a Bengals defense that has allowed a top-12 fantasy quarterback in six consecutive games and seven times this season, including QB1 games to other streaming options in Gardner Minshew (21.0 points), Mason Rudolph (16.9), and Jimmy Garoppolo (22.7).
  • Tyrell Williams: We’ve seen how dependent Williams was on touchdown production this season. Failing to score in each of the past two games, Williams has been the WR49 and WR55. He’s now caught three or fewer passes in five straight games played. The Bengals allow just 9.3 receptions per game to wideouts (the fewest in the league), but are 30th in fantasy points allowed per target (2.17) to the position and 32nd in yards per target allowed (10.7) to the position.
  • Auden Tate: Tate was targeted six times by Finley, which was second on the team. He caught just three of those targets for 36 yards, but played 100% of the snaps on offense while Alex Erickson (50.7%) shared work with rookie Stanley Morgan (51%) out of the bye week. The Raiders are 30th in yardage allowed per game (190.2) to opposing wideouts, but Finley has yet to show us he can support one pass-catcher, let alone a secondary one.
  • Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow has 16 targets over the past three weeks with 88, 54 and 42 yards receiving. There’s a low ceiling here if he fails to reach the end zone, but the Bengals have allowed lines of 4-32-1, 8-265-2, and 6-91-1 to opposing wideouts from the slot over their past three games.

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

PIT at CLE | HOU at BAL | NO at TB | ATL at CAR | DAL at DET | JAX at IND | BUF at MIA | NYJ at WAS | DEN at MIN | ARI at SF | CIN at OAK | NE at PHI | CHI at LAR | KAN at LAC