Jaguars vs Colts Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

• The Colts haven’t covered against the Jaguars since Week 12, 2014, going 0-7-1 against the spread versus Jacksonville over that span.
• The Jaguars have allowed a touchdown on 17.8% of their opponent possessions since Week 6 (11th) after allowing a touchdown on 24.1% through five games (21st).
• Jacksonville has run just nine plays inside of the opponent’s 5-yard line this season, 30th in the league.
• The Jaguars rank 30th in red zone touchdown conversion rate at 34.5% (10-of-29). 
• Jacksonville has run just nine plays inside of the opponent’s 5-yard line this season, 30th in the league.
• Marlon Mack leads the league in rushing attempts (41) that have failed to gain yardage. 
• The Colts have a league-high 75.0% passing rate on plays from inside of the 5-yard line. The rest of the league is at 40.7% on those plays.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Leonard Fournette: Fournette ranks third in the league in touches per game (23.8) and yards from scrimmage per game (125.1). The Colts are fifth in rushing points allowed per game (9.4), but 20th in receiving points allowed per game (11.2) to backfields.
• Marlon Mack: Mack is 11th in the league in rushing points per game (10.4), but is getting nerfed by his lack of receiving output (2.2 points per game) and the Colts being the pass-heaviest team near the goal line. Mack has three rushing scores on the season, with just one of them coming from inside of the 5-yard line. The Jaguars are 22nd in rushing points allowed per game (13.9) to backs.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Nick Foles: Foles has reclaimed the starting job after missing the past nine weeks with a broken collarbone. The highest a quarterback has finished against the Colts over their past six games is QB11— and that was Patrick Mahomes — while the other five passers were the QB17 or lower. 
• Colts QB: Frank Reich has stated that Jacoby Brissett needs to put in a full practice to play this weekend. If it’s Brian Hoyer under center, we can run completely away after he bricked his start against the Dolphins (6.2 points). The Jaguars have allowed just 223.2 passing yards per game and 6.7 yards per pass attempt over their past five games. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Jaguars WRs: We have almost no sample with Foles under center, as he threw only eight passes in week 1. Foles targeted D.J. Chark, Chris Conley, and Fournette two times each, with zero targets to Dede Westbrook.  That’s hardly enough of a sample to latch onto. Chark has the most upside here, but he’s also been the WR35 or lower in four of his past six games played. The downside is that opposing teams target their wide receivers 50.2% of the time versus the Colts (second-lowest rate) and they have allowed just five touchdowns to the position, but they do rank 25th in fantasy points allowed per target to the position (1.96).
• Zach Pascal: He was a letdown along with the rest of the passing game in Week 10, catching 2-of-7 targets for 26 yards. Pascal has played 92.2%, 94.4%, and 98.6% of the snaps the past three weeks and is the lead wideout with T.Y. Hilton sidelined, but he’ll also draw A.J. Bouye for the majority of his boundary snaps, where he runs 72% of his routes.
• Colts TEs: With Hilton out, the Colts have gone to playing more 2TE sets. Over the past two weeks, Eric Ebron is eighth in the NFL in routes run (52) while Jack Doyle is 12th (50). Ebron is coming off a season-high 12 targets. Doyle has had just four targets in each of the past two weeks, but he has scored in each of those games. Jacksonville is seventh in receptions allowed per game to tight ends (3.7) but 38,9% of the passing touchdowns they’ve allowed have gone to tight ends, the fifth-highest rate in the league.