Saints vs Buccaneers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game on November 17, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

New Orleans	Rank	@	Tampa Bay	Rank
-5.5		Spread	5.5
28		Implied Total	22.5
22.7	16	Points/Gm	28.9	3
20.2	11	Points All./Gm	31	32
63.9	16	Plays/Gm	69.6	2
60.2	7	Opp. Plays/Gm	66	23
38.8%	20	Rush%	37.9%	23
61.2%	13	Pass%	62.1%	10
36.4%	6	Opp. Rush %	34.0%	2
63.7%	27	Opp. Pass %	66.0%	31

The Buccaneers are a league-worst 2-7 against the spread this season and 0-3 at home.
Tampa Bay games average 59.9 combined points per game, the most in the league.
Tampa Bay opponents have bested their implied team total by an average of 5.9 points per game, the most in the league.
Tampa Bay is allowing a league-high .470 points per play defensively.
The Buccaneers rank second in expected points added via their rush defense (47.6) and 23rd in expected points added via their pass defense (minus-76.9).
Michael Thomas has eight or more receptions in six straight games, the longest such streak since Antonio Brown set the record with eight straight games in 2014.
Thomas now has 14 games with double-digit receptions since entering the league in 2016, the most in the league.
Thomas has 11 or more receptions in each of his past three games versus the Buccaneers.
Opposing wide receivers have scored 58.9% of the fantasy points allowed by the Buccaneers, the highest rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

Michael Thomas: Pacing to break the all-time record for receptions in a season, Thomas gets the most comfortable matchup for opposing lead wideouts. Opposing WR1 options are averaging a league-high 23.5 fantasy points per game versus Tampa Bay, including an 11-182-2 game to Thomas back in Week 5.
Drew Brees: Brees was arguably the most disappointing player in Week 10, but runs into another one of the best matchups for opposing passers against the pass-funnel Buccaneers defense. The Tampa Bay defense that ranks 32nd in passing points allowed per game (21.6). The Bucs have allowed 17 or more fantasy points to all of Kyler Murray (26.8), Russell Willson (39.2), Ryan Tannehill (19.4), Kyle Allen (17.4), Teddy Bridgewater (27.3), Jared Goff (20.7), and Daniel Jones (34.2) over their past seven games.
Jared Cook: Cook has now been a top-eight scorer in each of his past three games played. In his first full game played with Brees since Week 1, Cook received a season-high 10 targets, catching six for 74 yards. Tampa Bay has been giving to opposing tight ends, ranking 29th in receptions (6.4), 31st in yards (77.2) per game to tight ends and 30th in touchdowns allowed (six), including a TE5 scoring week to Cook (4-41-1) back in Week 5.
Chris Godwin: Godwin has cooled down a bit, with WR41, WR24, and WR25 scoring weeks over his past three games, but the volume is still there. Coming off 12 targets, Godwin has at least eight targets in each of the past six games, which includes a 7-125-2 game against the Saints on nine looks in Week 5.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Mike Evans: Evans had a 12.5% target share last week -his lowest since Week 5- but still put off a 4-82 game. With Marshon Lattimore looking doubtful this week, that removes a thorn in Evans’s side over the past few seasons. Evans was held without a catch when these teams played in Week 5 and has had games of 1-13, 5-55 and 4-86 against Lattimore in the past outside of on huge 7-147-1 game. With Lattimore out last week, the Saints did a good job on the boundary versus Julio Jones (3-79 on nine targets), but Lattimore’s absence adds upside here for Evans.
Alvin Kamara: Kamara played 78.3% of the snaps last week, his highest rate in a game since Week 3. Game script aided keeping Kamara on the field last week as the Saints played catch-up all game, but there was no concern with usage for Kamara after missing the previous two games due to an ankle injury. The Bucs have been lights out against the run this season, allowing a league-low 8.0 rushing points per game to opposing backfields. That should limit Latavius Murray’s skill set and force the Saints to pass. Kamara tallied 104 yards from scrimmage against Tampa Bay in Week 5. Due to find the end zone, Kamara hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3.
Jameis Winston: Winston has 17 or more fantasy points and 300 passing yards in six of his past seven games. His one non-300-yard game was against the Saints (204 yards) but he still managed a QB13 scoring week (17.5 points) in a game in which Mike Evans didn’t catch a pass. The Saints haven’t allowed more than two touchdown passes in a game since Week 1, but with Lattimore expected to miss this game, that gives Winston more upside to go with the high floor he’s had for fantasy.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Ronald Jones: Jones got his second consecutive start last week, with mixed results. On the positive end, he was the RB5 in overall scoring and caught eight passes for 77 yards, the most receptions he’s ever had in a game, including going back to high school. On the downside, he played just 47.1% of the team snaps, lost a fumble, was pulled for the game-winning goal line carry for Peyton Barber, and still struggled on the ground, rushing 11 times for 29 yards. The Saints are fourth in rushing points allowed to backfields (8.7) and held the Tampa Bay backs to a collective 1110 yards on 23 touches when these teams played in Week 5.
O.J. Howard: Sure, it was against the Cardinals, our favorite tight end target this season, but Howard’s usage last week was a continued step in the right direction over the blocking-first option that he was to start the season. Over the past three games, Howard has run a pass route on 57.3% of his snaps after 41.6% prior. He played a season-high 98.8% of the team snaps and ran a pass route on 41-of-52 dropbacks for Winston. This week’s matchup is not quite as great on paper. The Saints are 28th in yards per target allowed to tight ends (8.8) but face the sixth-fewest targets per game (5.3) to the position.
Saints WRs: Tre’Quan Smith played ahead of Ted Ginn last week, playing 82.6% of the snaps to 69.6% for Ginn, but Ginn managed to out-target Smith 3-2 while the routes run were tight in favor of Smith (43) over Ginn (40). The Bucs are a passing defense we target with an “all hands on deck” approach when it comes to opposing games, with Smith having a slight edge as your deeper Saints WR2 play based on his full-game usage last week.