The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Sunday afternoon game on November 17, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
BuffaloRank@MiamiRank
-5.5Spread5.5
22.5Implied Total17
19.325Points/Gm13.231
16.73Points All./Gm29.831
63.218Plays/Gm60.127
61.68Opp. Plays/Gm64.221
43.2%10Rush%34.9%28
56.8%23Pass%65.1%5
41.5%21Opp. Rush %49.0%31
58.5%12Opp. Pass %51.0%2
  • Miami has covered the spread in five straight games, the longest streak in the league.
  • The 3.69 yards per offensive play last week by the Dolphins were the second-fewest by a team in a victory this season (New England 3.61 yards per play in Week 4).
  • Kalen Ballage’s 45 yards last week on 24 touches were the fewest amount of yards from scrimmage gained on 24 or more touches in Dolphins franchise history.
  • Ballage has the most rushing attempts in the league (54) without a carry of 10 or more yards on the season.
  • The Dolphins have a minus-21.0 point per game home-field disadvantage this season, the lowest in the league.
  • Josh Allen’s 14 rushing touchdowns are the second-most by a quarterback through 20 career starts, trailing only Cam Newton (17).

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Josh Allen: Allen has 17 or more fantasy points in seven of his past eight games. He’s had three 20-point games this year, with one coming against Miami when these teams met in Week 7. Allen has now played the Dolphins three times in his career, finishing as the QB2 (28.7 points), QB1 (40.5), and QB7 (21.3) in those games. 
  • John Brown: Brown’s strong floor has held steady, scoring double-digit points in six straight games and in eight of nine games this season. Brown has at least 51 yards in every game this season with four catches in every game and five or more grabs in seven games. Miami has allowed a league-high seven WR1 scoring games this season, including a WR11 finish to Brown in Week 7 when he caught 5-of-6 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Devin Singletary: Singletary out-snapped Frank Gore for the third straight game (46-to-23), and has settled into a reliable snap share, playing 66.1%, 67.7%, and 66.7% of snaps in those games. The one thing of note in this split, however, is that Gore got the lone carry between the two inside of the 5-yard line after he had three the week prior compared to two for Singletary. Miami has allowed 109 and 83 yards rushing the past two weeks to the Jets and Colts after 160.4 yards rushing per game prior. When these teams met in Week 7, Bills backs combined for 19 touches for 92 yards and a touchdown.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick was the QB10 when these teams played in Week 7 with 20.6 fantasy points. That was the only QB1 scoring week the Bills have allowed this season and 7.3 of those points came from rushing output. Fitzpatrick has thrown for fewer than 6.0 yards per pass attempt in two of his three games since.
  • Mike Gesicki: His usage increase stayed high last week 60.6% of the snaps and 29 routes run, but caught just 3-of-6 targets for 28 yards with a 4.8-yard average depth of target. Gesicki managed a 4-41 line when these teams last played, but opposing teams target their tight ends just 12.3% of the time versus Buffalo, the lowest rate in the league. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Dawson Knox: Knox ran 23 pass routes last week, his highest total in a game since Week 5. He set season-highs in targets (six) and receptions (four) with 55 yards, his highest total since Week 4. Knox only secured 2-of-5 targets for 22 yards when these teams met in Week 7, but Miami is 21st in receptions (5.1) and 26th in yardage allowed (61.4) per game to tight ends.
  • Cole Beasley: Beasley posted 74 yards last week after totaling 91 yards over his previous four games. He’s received 61 targets on the season — just 10 fewer than Brown — and leads the team with three touchdown receptions, including one when these teams last played, but managed just 16 yards on three catches outside of scoring a touchdown.
  • DeVante Parker: Parker has been a WR3 or better in six straight games with double-digit points in all six. The Bills didn’t use Tre’Davious White to shadow Parker back in Week 7 when he caught 5-of-10 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown, but that was with Preston Williams still on the field (who had 6-82 himself that week).
  • Kalen Ballage: The 24 touches are hard to ignore, but Ballage has now rushed 55 times for 113 yards (2.1 YPC) on the season with a long run of eight yards. 30 of those carries have gained two yards or fewer. The Bills are 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.78) to opposing backs. Miami backs totaled 27 touches for 123 yards when these teams met in Week 7 with Ballage having seven yards on three touches, but also a touchdown.

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

PIT at CLE | HOU at BAL | NO at TB | ATL at CAR | DAL at DET | JAX at IND | BUF at MIA | NYJ at WAS | DEN at MIN | ARI at SF | CIN at OAK | NE at PHI | CHI at LAR | KAN at LAC