The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Bears and Broncos.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Denver | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
-3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
24.5 | Implied Total | 21.0 | ||
23.0 | 15 | Points/Gm | 15.7 | 27 |
40.7 | 32 | Points All./Gm | 35.3 | 31 |
59.7 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 57.3 | 28 |
64.0 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.7 | 22 |
5.7 | 8 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.4 | 28 |
7.2 | 32 | Def. Yards/Play | 6 | 30 |
36.31% | 25 | Rush% | 41.28% | 16 |
63.69% | 8 | Pass% | 58.72% | 17 |
49.48% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 50.74% | 31 |
50.52% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 49.26% | 2 |
- The Bears have now lost 13 consecutive games dating back to last season, the longest active streak in the league.
- Chicago has allowed 25-plus points in all of those games, tied now for the longest streak ever (13 games), which was set over the 1963-1964 seasons.
- Chicago is last in the league in point differential (-59 points).
- Denver is 30th in the league in point differential (-53 points).
- 56.3% (18-of-32) of the drives against Denver have reached the red zone or scored prior, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bears have reached the red zone or scored before the red zone on 21.9% (7-of-32) of their drives, 28th in the league.
- 92.2% of the Chicago offensive snaps have come while trailing, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bears are averaging -4.2 yards per passing play compared to their opponent, the worst differential in the league.
- The Broncos are allowing a first down or touchdown every 2.87 snaps, the highest rate in the league.
- Chicago is allowing a first down or touchdown every 3.12 snaps, 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Fields: It has gotten progressively worse for Fields as he completed a season-low 50% (11-of-22) of his passes on Sunday for just 99 yards against the Chiefs.
After three weeks, Fields is now the QB21 in overall fantasy scoring while failing to post a week higher than QB16.
Fields is 31st in the league in completion rate (58.0%) while 28th in yards per pass attempt (6.0 Y/A).
On throws 10 yards or further, Fields is 7-of-22 (31.8%) with three interceptions.
If looking for anything to latch onto, Fields did have seven designed rushing attempts on Sunday after just five through the opening two games.
This is the most “stoppable force versus moveable object” matchup you could have.
As bad as it has been for Fields, the Denver defense has been just as bad and has gotten worse each week.
After allowing 15.1 passing points to Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 1, Denver allowed 19.9 passing points to Sam Howell in Week 2 and then 35.0 combined passing points to Tua Tagovailoa and Mike White this past week.
Denver has allowed a league-high 77.4% completion rate, the most yards per pass attempt (9.4 Y/A), and the highest touchdown rate (9.7%) in the league.
Denver is also dead last in the NFL in terms of pressure rate (20.4%).
On throws 10 yards or further downfield, the Broncos have allowed passers to complete 23-of-29 (79.3%) passes with a 153.2 rating.
That is not all Miami-based, either. Garoppolo was 8-of-9 on those throws while Howell was 6-of-10.
So, what gives here?
If you drafted Fields at his draft cost, you are likely already behind in the win column, but if you are not going to play him in this spot, just outright release him and free yourself.
Given what Garoppolo and Howell have done in their games outside of facing Denver, Fields is at least drawing live to be a matchup-based swing for the fences for one more week before losing all faith.
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