The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Bills and Dolphins.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Miami | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 28.0 | ||
| 43.3 | 1 | Points/Gm | 30.3 | 2 |
| 23.7 | 21 | Points All./Gm | 11.7 | 2 |
| 65.7 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 69.0 | 7 |
| 68.7 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 47.7 | 1 |
| 8.4 | 1 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 9 |
| 5.3 | 16 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 18 |
| 47.21% | 8 | Rush% | 43.48% | 12 |
| 52.79% | 25 | Pass% | 56.52% | 21 |
| 41.26% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 39.16% | 11 |
| 58.74% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 60.84% | 22 |
- Miami is averaging a league-high 3.61 points per drive.
- Buffalo is averaging 2.80 points per drive, second in the league.
- The Dolphins have reached the red zone or scored prior on a league-high 55.6% of their possessions.
- The Bills have reached the red zone or scored prior on 46.7% of their drives, third in the league.
- Miami has scored a league-high six offensive touchdowns from outside of the red zone.
- Miami has a league-high 42 plays of 15 or more yards. The next closest team is at 27.
- Miami is averaging a league-high 7.0 scoring plays per game.
- Buffalo is allowing 2.3 scoring plays per game, second in the league.
- The Dolphins are averaging 7.6 yards per play on first down, the most in the league.
- The Bills are allowing 6.5 yards per play on first down (30th) as opposed to 4.2 yards per play on all other downs (10th).
- Buffalo has scored 72.2% of the points in their games played, the highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa had a nearly flawless game on Sunday, completing 23-of-26 passes for 309 yards (11.9 Y/A) and four touchdowns.
From the Twilight Zone files, Tua now has nearly identically the same stats through three games that he had a year ago.
He has the same number of completions (72), attempts (101), touchdowns (eight), and interceptions (two) that he had through three games last season.
This season, he has more passing yards (1,024) than a year ago (925).
Tua has that QB26 scoring week in Week 2 against the Patriots to keep us honest, but This Miami offense has had all of the answers early this season.
This will be their toughest assignment so far, but this game environment could just be an outright pinball setting.
We are starting everyone in this one for the upside outcome, including Tagovailoa as a front-end QB1.
Buffalo has allowed just 13.8 total passing points over three games (Tua is averaging 22.9 passing points per game) but they have also faced Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Sam Howell.
The Bills slowed Tua down last season for fantasy last season, limiting him to QB24 (11.4 points) and QB12 (18.1 points) scoring weeks. The first matchup is when Tagovailoa originally sustained his concussion.
Despite slowing Tagovailoa down some for fantasy, he still had the most yards per pass attempt (8.8 Y/A) that Buffalo allowed to an opposing passer in 2022.
Tua had the second-highest passer rating (111.5) surrendered by the Bills, completing 30-of-48 passes (62.5%) for 420 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in those two matchups.
The Bills blitzed Tua on 30.8% of his dropbacks. They only blitzed one quarterback more and only blitzed at an 18.8% rate for the season.
When they did not blitz, Tagovailoa roasted them for 9.5 yards per pass attempt.
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