The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Jaguars and Falcons.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 20.25 | Implied Total | 23.25 | ||
| 18.3 | 23 | Points/Gm | 19.0 | 21 |
| 18.0 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 25.0 | 23 |
| 63.7 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 67.3 | 11 |
| 61.0 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 13 |
| 4.5 | 26 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 15 |
| 4.7 | 8 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 24 |
| 47.64% | 7 | Rush% | 39.60% | 21 |
| 52.36% | 26 | Pass% | 60.40% | 12 |
| 45.90% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 39.15% | 10 |
| 54.10% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 60.85% | 23 |
- Jacksonville has scored a touchdown on 16.2% of their drives (21st) after a 22.7% rate in 2022 (11th),
- Atlanta has scored a touchdown on 14.3% of their drives, 26th in the league.
- The Jaguars have -36.1 expected points added on offense, ahead of only the Steelers (-37.5) and the Jets (-40.9).
- The Jaguars are third in the league in EPA added as a run defense (18.6) while Atlanta is fourth (18.3).
- Jacksonville leads the league with nine credited dropped passes through three weeks.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: It hasn’t been pretty for Lawrence these past two games with QB30 (9.2 points) and QB18 (14.4 points) scoring weeks.
Not everything has been Lawrence’s fault as the Jaguars have a league-worst-15.0 EPA lost through dropped passes to start the season.
That said, even on completed passes so far, Jacksonville is still 18th in the NFL in EPA added on those completions.
Atlanta has mixed things up defensively so far, blitzing on 16.7% (27th), 48.1% (second), and 23.5% (16th) of the time through three weeks.
Lawrence has completed 47.8% of his passes (28th) when blitzed to open the season as opposed to a 68.9% completion rate (13th) when teams have not sent extra bodies.
The Atlanta pass defense has not been overly challenged as Jared Goff is the best passer they have faced, but they have done all that you could ask from them in those matchups. Especially down the field.
Atlanta has allowed opposing passers to complete just 10-of-31 passes (32.3%) 10 yards and further downfield, which is tied for second in the league.
As tough of a start that Lawrence has gotten off to, this is still a test to provide more clarity on how much growth this pass defense has made.
I still would go back to Lawrence as a back-end QB1 option for another week to find out where they truly are.
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