The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals Sunday afternoon game.
|32.65%||3||Opp. Rush %||36.16%||6|
|67.35%||30||Opp. Pass %||63.84%||27|
- Arizona is still the only team in the NFL without any points scored in the first quarter this season.
- The Eagles are the only team remaining that has not trailed in the second half this season.
- Philadelphia is averaging a league-high 8.2 yards per passing play.
- The Eagles are allowing 4.3 yards per passing play on defense, the fewest in the league.
- 37.8% of the passing plays against Arizona have resulted in a first down or touchdown, 31st in the league.
- The Eagles are averaging 6.5 sacks plus takeaways per game, the most in the league.
- 71.4% (10-of-14) of the Philadelphia touchdowns have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league. League average is 36.3%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Jalen Hurts (TRUST): Hurts had his first fantasy “letdown” last week, closing as the QB15 (15.9 points). The rain and three rushing scores from his backs didn’t help his cause but Hurts still managed to find the end zone on the ground for the fourth time this season. The weather and game script influenced a season-low 25 pass attempts but Hurts still threw for 8.2 yards per pass attempt.
The Eagles have been so good to open the season that they have actually capped Hurts. Hurts leads the league with 87.7 fantasy points scored in the first half of games while the next closest player (Cooper Kupp) has 60.2 points.
In the second half this season, Hurts has scored 13.6 fantasy points, which ranks 156th in the league. He does not even have a touchdown passing or rushing in the second half this season while he has thrown just 38 second half passes in total through four games.
There will be no rain in Arizona, only fantasy points. The Cardinals had a reprieve last week facing Baker Mayfield, but they still rank 24th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.6 Y/A), 25th in completion rate (68.4%), and 27th in touchdown rate (5.8%) allowed to quarterbacks with Mayfield’s numbers factored in.
If Arizona can do their part offensively, this could be a fantasy smorgasbord, but at minimum, if the Eagles are well ahead once again it will likely be because Hurts played well enough to log a bunch of points early on.
Kyler Murray: It hasn’t been the cleanest start for Murray, but he has ended three of the opening four weeks as a top-8 weekly scorer.
Murray’s 6.5 yards per pass attempt last were a season-high, tacking on a pair touchdown passes and another on the ground (to go with 26 yards rushing), Murray has scored 20-plus fantasy points in all but one game.
Murray has been the complete inverse of Hurts. Murray has scored just 15.3 fantasy points this season in the first half (142nd) compared to scoring 60.0 in the second half (second).
This is another tough draw for Murray, too. The Eagles are first in the league in completion rate allowed (56.4%), second in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.5 Y/A), seventh in yards allowed per completion (9.8 yards), 10th in touchdown rate allowed (3.4%), and sixth in passing points allowed (10.7 per game) to passers.
Kyler has his legs and potential late-game output to keep him on the board as a QB1 option, with added hopes that he and the Cardinals make this an actual back-and-forth game.
Miles Sanders: Sanders is coming off his best fantasy game since 2020, rushing 27 times for 134 yards with a pair of scores, sprinkling in two receptions for 22 yards. Sanders has now been a top-20 scorer in all but one game this season, taking full advantage of the Eagles continuously leading.
Sanders has just eight catches for 35 yards, but it hasn’t mattered since the Eagles have not been pressed into hurry up situations. Looking at the look ahead on the Philadelphia schedule, it is hard to find many spots where the Eagles do not have an objectively good outlook on the scoreboard.
Arizona has been middle of the pack against the run, allowing 4.47 YPC to backs (16th) and just 10.6 rushing points per game (eighth) to the position since they have allowed just two touchdowns on the ground while facing the third-fewest rushing attempts to backfields to open the year.
The latter will surely change here if the game script plays out as implied, keeping Sanders as an RB2 with upside dependent on reaching the end zone.
James Conner: Conner has notched just one week so far as a top-24 scorer, coming back in Week 1 when he scored his lone touchdown on the year. Conner was able to mount a season-high 18 touches last week with Arizona actually leading for the first time, but he managed just 77 scoreless yards.
Finding room on the ground has been difficult as Conner has rushed 45 times for 145 yards (3.2 YPC). This coming off averaging 3.7 YPC in 2021. Yards per carry don’t matter if you’re scoring 15 touchdowns like a year ago, but when you aren’t reaching the paint the efficiency does come into play.
After allowing 172 yards on 26 carries (6.6 YPC) and three rushing touchdowns to Detroit backs in Week 1, opposing backs have 40 carries for 138 yards (3.5 YPC) and one rushing score the past three games, laying waste to Dalvin Cook (RB37) and James Robinson (RB60) in the process for fantasy.
Conner is an RB3/FLEX play based on volume, needing to reach the end zone.
A.J. Brown: Brown has just one WR1 scoring week through four games, but he has held a steady floor without touchdowns, something he never did while with the Titans.
In his 21 career games without a touchdown with Tennessee, Brown had just one WR2 or better scoring week with no WR1 scoring weeks. This season with the Eagles, he already has two WR2 or better games in his three games without a score with a WR1 scoring week.
Brown averaged a paltry 7.3 PPR points in games without a touchdown with the Titans. In his three games without a score this season, he has scored 25.5, 11.9, and 14.5 PPR points.
Brown has target shares of 48.2%, 25.8%, 29.4%, and 29.2% to open the season. Like Hurts of course, he has done his work early, catching just 10 passes for 109 yards after halftime.
Brown is already a WR1 playing just a half of each game.
For as bad as the Cardinals have been defensively versus the pass, they actually are sixth in points allowed per game (12.6) to opposing WR1. They also may be getting Antonio Hamilton back this weekend to help move some parts around in the cornerback room.
None of that is pushing us off of Brown as he is commanding such a large target share already, with added appeal should we see a competitive game.
Marquise Brown: Hollywood has opened the season strong, producing a WR3 or better scoring week in all four games with back-to-back weeks as a top-12 scorer. Brown has a touchdown or double-digit targets in all four games, seeing 11, 17, and 11 targets the past three weeks.
Brown has commanded a gaudy 30.9% and 35.5% target share the past two games.
He will need that volume this week as the Eagles are allowing a league-low 51.6% catch rate and 6.0 yards per target to opposing wide receivers.
Brown has run 77.8% of his routes out wide, where the Eagles are allowing 6.4 yards per target wideouts (third).
We know the Cardinals will have to throw here and Brown is collecting too many targets to move away from, but after back-to-backs weeks as a WR1, he is in WR2 territory this weekend.
DeVonta Smith: Four weeks into the season (still a very small sample) we have seen that Smith is more vulnerable to floor performances in this offense than Brown has been, who has consistently received high target shares.
We know this offense is good enough to provide spike weeks for Smith as a WR3, but when things are light in this passing game, he has been impacted more heavily. Smith has weeks as the WR1 (8-169-1) and WR25 (7-80-0), but also weeks as the WR120 (0-0-0) and WR69 (3-17-0) like last weekend.
Smith has been even more impacted by the Eagles consistently leading as he has four catches for 36 yards on seven targets in the second half of games this year.
Rondale Moore: Getting on the field for the first time this season, Moore played 86% of the snaps, running a pass route on 33-of-35 team dropbacks. Moore secured just 3-of-5 targets for 11 yards, but he completely wiped out any momentum Greg Dortch had (36% of the snaps), showing that Moore is a part of Arizona’s big picture plans.
Moore also had a depth of target of 10.4 yards, which was encouraging since that mark was a lateral 1.3 yards downfield as a rookie.
We still cannot use Moore as more than WR4/FLEX play in this tougher matchup, especially if he’s going to only play 29% of the time in the slot, the one area where the Eagles looked vulnerable last week with Avonte Maddox sidelined and Jamal Agnew getting loose.
Dallas Goedert (TRUST): Goedert has been a top-10 scorer in each of the past three games despite receiving six or fewer targets in all four games this season. He is coming off a season-high 25.0% target share, catching 5-of-6 targets for 72 yards, with his lone failed target a drop where he may have scored on.
Goedert has had a solid floor since he is averaging 15.0 yards per catch and the tight end position is lousy, but he has had yet to post a top-six scoring week to date since the volume has not been there. Record scratch, but Goedert has just four catches in the second half this season.
That can change here as opposing tight ends have scored 27.2% of the fantasy points allowed by Arizona (31st). To their credit, they have faced Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Tyler Higbee in their season sample, but Goedert is not far removed if at all from the latter pair of those options.
Zach Ertz: Ertz gets to play his former team for the first time while he is continuing to chug along as a productive tight end in 2022. Ertz has been a TE1 in all four games this season despite topping 47 yards in just one game. He has six or more receptions in each of his three games since being limited in Week 1, so he has added value in PPR and TE Premium formats, but Ertz is always on the field and the Cardinals are always passing.
Ertz has run a route on 92.3%, 87.1%, and 91.4% of the dropbacks the past three weeks.
The Eagles do pose a tougher matchup, but Ertz is seeing too many targets at a position with limited target earners to move away from as a volume-based TE1. The Eagles are allowing 5.9 yards per target (ninth) with one touchdown to tight ends through four weeks.
More Week 5 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
IND at DEN | NYG vs GB | ATL at TB | CHI at MIN | DET at NE | HOU at JAX | MIA at NYJ | TEN at WAS | PIT at BUF | LAC at CLE | SEA at NO | SF at CAR | DAL at LAR | PHI at ARI | CIN at BAL | LVR at KC