The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 3 Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game.
|Green Bay||Rank||@||Tampa Bay||Rank|
|53.92%||31||Opp. Rush %||29.23%||3|
|46.08%||2||Opp. Pass %||70.77%||30|
- Green Bay has turned 35.5% of their first and second down plays into a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league through two weeks.
- The Buccaneers have turned 17.9% of their first and second down plays into a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in the league through two weeks.
- 26.2% of Tom Brady’s pass attempts have come on first down, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Buccaneers have 10 more sacks than their opponent, the largest differential through two weeks.
- 42.6% of the Green Bay rushing attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdowns, the highest rate in the league through two weeks.
- 16.9% of the Tampa Bay rushing attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdowns, 29th in the league.
- Just 4-of-24 possessions (16.7%) for Tampa Bay have reached the red zone, 30th in the league.
Aaron Rodgers: After a QB32 scoring week (3.7 points) in Week 1, Rodgers did bounce back and play a good game in Week 2 against Chicago, completing 76% of his passes for 234 yards (9.4 yards per pass attempt) and a pair of touchdowns. That said, it was still only good for a QB16 scoring week (16.4 points) for fantasy.
With a limited receiving corps, Rodgers has thrown a league-high 39.0% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (league rate is 21.9%). The Packers have targeted their wide receivers just 53.3% of the time (28th) while targeting their running backs 28.3% of the time (fourth).
It’s kind of wild that we have a matchup with Rodgers versus Tom Brady that has such a low game total, but it is hard to push back on it. With that in play, this is the lowest implied team total that the Packers have had in a game with Rodgers as the starter since Week 1 of the 2014 season when they opened the year against the apex Legion of Boom in Seattle.
The Packers only scored 16 points in that game and Rodgers was the QB28, scoring 9.6 fantasy points.
The Bucs have opened the year allowing just 5.3 yards per pass attempt (third) and 13.4 passing points total (second) through two games.
Rodgers was a fringe QB1 in fantasy drafts and has opened the year as a QB2 in output through two weeks, Tacking on the matchup and implied total, there is no objective reason to handle him as anything but a QB2 this week.
Tom Brady: Things have gone the same way for Brady, who has opened the season as the QB27 (10.4 points) and QB25 (9.4 points). With all of the moving parts for the Bucs on the offensive line and in the wide receiver room, the Bucs are entering Sunday potentially missing Donovan Smith, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin as probable absences while the team also lost fill-in left tackle Josh Wells to a calf injury and will not play Sunday. We also do not know if Julio Jones will suit up after missing Week 2 with a knee injury.
This is the lowest implied team total the Buccaneers have ever had with Brady as their quarterback.
Brady is down to a skeleton crew on offense. The Evans absence is big. Since Brady joined the Bucs, he has averaged his lowest completion rate (61.6%), yards per pass attempt (6.7 Y/A), and touchdown rate (4.6%) when Evans has not been on the field. And that was with guys like Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski at his disposal.
The Packers lead the league in pressure rate (42.0%) through two weeks while they are fourth in passing points allowed (19.9). It is hard to pressure Brady, who has seen pressure on just 20.3% of his dropbacks despite the state of the offensive line. But when pressured, Brady is averaging 2.9 yards per pass attempt. In 2021 he averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt under pressure with a 44.8% completion rate.
As is the case with Rodgers, there is nothing here to suggest that you shouldn’t stream for Brady this weekend and handle him as a QB2.
Leonard Fournette: Fournette was held to 2.7 yards per carry in Week 2 against the Saints, but he once again tallied a massive workload given the state of the Tampa Bay offense. Fournette handled 26 touches after racking up 23 in Week 1. Through two weeks, Fournette has accrued 49.5% of the Tampa Bay offensive touches, which leads the NFL.
While running into the New Orleans front is always a tough ask, Green Bay has come out and allowed 6.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs (30th) through two weeks. With the Bucs still being home favorites, Fournette is the one piece of this offense to still have confidence in as an RB1 option.
Packers RBs: After an unlucky Week 1 based on his usage, Aaron Jones cashed in all of his regression immediately, producing 170 yards and two touchdowns on 18 touches Sunday night against the Bears.
Jones has led this backfield in snaps in each of the opening two weeks while running a pass route on 63.4% of the team dropbacks, which is sixth at the position.
The Buccaneers have opened the year allowing just 14.6 rushing points (sixth) but they have allowed 4.56 yards per carry to backs (19th) and have now lost Akeim Hicks to an injury.
That opens the door for Jones and A.J. Dillon to have more efficiency running the ball than we typically would see against the Tampa front.
Dillon out-touched Jones 19-18 last week and 15-8 in Week 1 but running a route on just 43.1% of the team dropbacks, Dillon is tied to finding the end zone to hit any type of fantasy ceiling. Closing last week as the RB35, Dillon now has just one top-30 scoring week in 11 games without a touchdown in which he played with Jones.
Even with the injury to Hicks, Dillon is a touchdown-dependent FLEX. Jones carries more volatility, but with his receiving opportunity and efficiency, carries a higher ceiling as a fringe RB1.
Buccaneers WRs: Tampa Bay is entering Sunday looking at being without Mike Evans due to suspension and Chris Godwin as he recovers from the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 1. We will await word on Julio Jones after he missed Week 2 with a knee injury, leaving them right now with a core of Breshad Perriman, Russell Gage, and Scotty Miller, maybe even being forced to press newly acquired Cole Beasley into action.
Last week, Gage led the team with 28 routes (80% of the dropbacks), followed by Perriman (27), and Miller (19) outside of the work Evans had.
Miller led that group with eight targets (3-34-0), followed by Gage with six (5-28-0), and Perriman with five (3-45-1) with Perriman corralling a 28-yard touchdown.
If Jones were to return, he would surely be a favorite to lead this unit and surpass the 18.5% target share he had in Week 1 (3-68-0).
Despite the performance of Justin Jefferson in Week 1, this Green Bay secondary is well equipped for these available wide receivers in a similar fashion as New Orleans did a week ago.
If Jones is active, he can be treated as a WR4/FLEX, but the rest of this group are FLEX darts only.
Allen Lazard: After missing Week 1, Lazard returned to action this past Sunday night and immediately operated as the lead wide receiver.
Lazard ran a pass route on 89.7% of the team dropbacks while no other wide receiver ran a route on two-thirds of the dropbacks. Lazard only caught 2-of-3 targets for 13 yards but managed to squeeze in a 5-yard touchdown grab to salvage his line. That has been the story with Lazard. He does not command many targets nor produce many yards, but he does collect end zone targets. 12.6% of his career targets have come in the end zone, which ranks fifth among active wideouts.
This is a matchup that is not overly appealing for upside as the Bucs have allowed just 5.4 yards per target to opposing wide receivers (second in the league), leaving Lazard as a touchdown-dependent WR3.
Cameron Brate: Brate has held a clear edge as the team’s feature tight end, running 47 pass routes compared to 14 routes for Cade Otton. The downside is that Brate has just five total targets, catching two passes for 16 yards, making him a non-factor for fantasy.
Robert Tonyan: The Packers are still working Tonyan back slowly coming back from his knee injury. In Week 1, Tonyan ran a route on just 44.2% of the team dropbacks while that rate was 48.3% in Week 2.
That’s just not enough usage to pursue in fantasy as Tonyan has posted games of 3-36-0 and 2-11-0. If looking at Tonyan as a touchdown or bust option, he is still just a hold on deeper rosters.
More Week 3 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
PIT at CLE | BUF at MIA | CIN at NYJ | DET at MIN | HOU at CHI | KC at IND | NO at CAR | PHI at WAS | LVR at TEN | BAL at NE | JAX at LAC | ATL at SEA | GB at TB | LAR at ARI | SF at DEN | DAL at NYG