Ravens vs Patriots Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 3

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 3 Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots Sunday afternoon game.

Baltimore	Rank	@	New England	Rank
-3		Spread	3
23		Implied Total	20
31	4	Points/Gm	12	29
25.5	23	Points All./Gm	17	8
53.5	29	Plays/Gm	60	23
74	30	Opp. Plays/Gm	58.5	8
7	1	Off. Yards/Play	5.4	16
6.3	27	Def. Yards/Play	4.7	8
42.99%	11	Rush%	44.17%	9
57.01%	22	Pass%	55.83%	24
23.65%	1	Opp. Rush %	38.46%	13
76.35%	32	Opp. Pass %	61.54%	20

15.8% of Lamar Jackson’s completions have gone for a touchdown, the highest rate in the league. League average is 7.4%.
81.8% of the yardage allowed by Baltimore has come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
Baltimore running backs have scored 9.6% of the team’s non-passing fantasy points, the lowest rate in the league.
The Ravens have allowed a league-high 473.5 yards per game for fantasy.
New England has scored on 21.1% (4-of-19) of their drives, ahead of only the Seahawks and Colts through two weeks.

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: Jackson has been incredible to open the season for fantasy, finishing Week 1 as the QB8 (20.2 points) and then going nuclear last week as the QB1 (42.6 points), which was a career-high. After just 17 rushing yards Week 1, Jackson ran for 119 yards this past week, carried by a 79-yard touchdown, the longest run of his career.

Jackson has gotten there by aggressively pushing the ball downfield. His 11.4-yard depth of target is the highest in the league while only Jared Goff (really) has thrown a lower rate of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage than Jackson (13.6%).

The 2019 version of Jackson could be back, but right now he is the top quarterback in points over expectation. Jackson has thrown six touchdown passes through two weeks, with three of 25 yards or longer and just one within 10 yards of the end zone. While Jackson has surely run hot in passing touchdown production, his career rate of throwing a touchdown per completion is 10.1%, which is still above league average.

Jackson has only made two starts against New England, but he has scored 28.6 and 21.5 points in those games. The Patriots are 13th in passing points allowed through two weeks, facing Tua Tagovailoa and Mitchell Trubisky.

Jackson could be due some regression in the touchdown passing department, but his dual-threat ability still has him in play as a QB1.

Mac Jones: Jones opened the season as the QB29 (8.5 points) and the QB22 (12.7 points), throwing one touchdown in each of the opening two games.

Jones is 23rd in EPA per dropback and 27th in expected points per game (14.9), leaving him as a floor-based QB2.

Baltimore has forced each of the first two teams they have faced to go extremely pass-heavy while they are dealing with a number of injuries in their cornerback room once again. The Ravens did get Marcus Peters back on the field last week to aid a battered secondary, but even if they struggle again, Jones and this New England stable of playmakers just do not have the firepower to count on producing something along the lines that Miami did to the Ravens a week ago.

Running Back

Patriot RBs: With Ty Montgomery out, the Patriots went to a two-pronged approach last week in the backfield.

Rhamondre Stevenson led the team with 42 snaps (61.8%), followed by Damien Harris (27 snaps) and Pierre Strong just three snaps. Stevenson also led the backfield with 23 pass routes compared to just nine for Harris.

Despite that edge on the field for Stevenson, Harris still led the group with 15 touches for 87 yards and a touchdown while Stevenson turned in 10 touches for 51 yards. Harris appeared to pick up an injury at the end of the game icing things but did not express concern afterward that it was a significant injury.

Based on the implied outcome here, Stevenson is the back that carries the most appeal as a FLEX play here, but he still has not shown that he has hurdled Harris near the goal line, which does cap his upside if we aren’t getting touchdowns.

The Ravens have allowed 5.1 yards per carry to backs (25th) to open the year to provide some hope for Harris if the Patriots can keep things tight, something neither the Jets nor Dolphins did against the Ravens the first two weeks.

Baltimore RBs: We never seek to completely avoid any backfield for fantasy, but the first two weeks for this Baltimore backfield have been a travesty, especially accounting for the game scripts they have been in.

Baltimore running backs have combined for 108 yards from scrimmage, the fewest in the league.

Kenyan Drake and Mike Davis were so ineffective again that the team turned to Justice Hill for a team-high 21 snaps, with Hill leading the group with a meager 16 total yards.

We know J.K. Dobbins is knocking on the door to finally return to the field to boost things, but even if Dobbins does finally dress in Week 3, we are still anticipating that there will be a ramp-up period for him before logging a full workload.

I do not see an objective path to playing any Raven running back in Week 3.

Wide Receiver

Rashod Bateman: Bateman caught 4-of-7 targets for 108 yards and his second touchdown in as many games to kick off his second season in the league.

While Bateman has gotten there each week, we still would like to see some increased run for him. Bateman has run a route on just 73.5% and 70.9% of the team dropbacks in the opening two weeks, ranking 30th among wideouts in route rate through two weeks. We would like to see that rise since we cannot count on 55 and 75-yard touchdowns to happen every week.

While Bateman has started the season fortunate to produce as he has on his opportunities and carries volatility when he finally does not score a long touchdown, he still should be no worse than second on the team in targets attached to a hot quarterback and can be played as a WR3.

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers was a target hog in Week 2, collecting 9-of-13 targets (38.2% of the team total) for 95 yards. It was just the fifth time in his career that he has eclipsed 75 yards in a game.

We know Meyers is regularly going to lead the Patriots in targets, the hang-up is that he is entirely reliant on volume just to be a floor-based fantasy option in full-PPR formats.

There is nothing wrong with that here with the Patriots anticipated to play from behind and the two previous teams facing Baltimore having to abandon the run.

*Meyers has missed practice with a knee injury to close the week and is trending towards not being available Sunday. That will elevate DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor as deeper league plays, but neither above WR5 status. Parker has run a route on 100% and 71.1% of the team dropbacks through two weeks, seeing four total targets. Agholor has run a route on 54.6% and 76.3% of the dropbacks while earning 11 looks, giving him the better bed of earning targets early in the season.

Tight End

Mark Andrews: After a relatively quiet Week 1 (5-52-0), Andrews popped in Week 2, catching 9-of-11 targets for 104 yards and his first touchdown of the year against Miami.

Andrews received 37.9% of the team targets, the highest target share for a tight end in a game through two weeks and the only one over 30%. Andrews cleared 30% of the team targets four different times in 2021 as he is still the primary target to focus on in this passing game.

Andrews will surely draw the defensive attention based on the New England defense centered around limiting the opposition’s best player, but he is locked into your lineups as a TE1 play. Opposing tight ends have secured 6-of-10 targets for 37 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots through two weeks.

Patriots TEs: New England tight ends did not even catch a pass last week, with Hunter Henry (three) and Jonnu Smith (one) seeing just four total targets come in their direction. Two weeks into the season, this duo has combined to catch 5-of-11 targets for 53 yards.

Henry still has an edge in running a route on 71.8% of the dropbacks compared to 42.3% for Smith, but both options are touchdown or bust TE2 plays. If hoping for a touchdown, the Ravens have allowed a touchdown to Tyler Conklin and Mike Gesicki in each week this season.

More Week 3 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: