The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 7 Oakland Raiders vs Green Bay Packers Sunday afternoon game on October 20, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
|40.5%||19||Opp. Rush %||40.4%||18|
|59.5%||14||Opp. Pass %||59.6%||15|
- Derek Carr has been pressured on just 24.9% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league.
- Carr is averaging 9.5 yards per completion, 36th out of 38 quarterbacks with 50 or more pass attempts on the season, ahead of only Luke Falk (8.9 yards) and Mitchell Trubisky (8.5 yards).
- The Raiders are second in the league in rushing yardage per play than their opponent (+1.2 yards).
- Green Bay is 31st in the league in rushing yardage per play than their opponent (-1.5 yards).
- Aaron Rodgers‘s eight pass touchdowns and 93.8 fantasy points are the fewest he’s ever had through six games of a season in his career.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Aaron Rodgers: He’s had two top-12 weeks over his past three games in matchups that were good coming in. He gets another here as a home favorite against an Oakland team that is 28th in passing points allowed per game (18.7) and 27th in touchdown rate (6.4%) allowed to opposing passers. There’s some real concern the Packers wideouts are just not strong enough to capitalize, but Rodgers was the QB12 a week ago working with a skeleton crew for the majority of the game.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has been the RB7, RB22, and RB3 in the three Oakland wins and the RB28 and RB48 in their two losses. He’s run 13 and 17 pass routes over his past two games in wins, which is encouraging that his passing-game role is expanding regardless, but it’s fair to question his ceiling as a road underdog until he’s used exclusively through negative game script. The Packers run defense showed up a week ago versus Kerryon Johnson (13 carries for 34 yards) but has still allowed a rushing touchdown to the opposing lead back in each of the past five games.
- Darren Waller: Waller has accounted for 31.4% of the Oakland receptions, the highest share for a tight end on the season and trails only Michael Thomas (36.3%) and Chris Godwin (32.6%) regardless of position. He is the only tight end in the top-25 in seasonal scoring that has yet to score a touchdown, so he’s due. Green Bay hasn’t faced a strong schedule of fantasy tight ends, but the one comparable option in terms of usage was Zach Ertz, who caught 7-of-8 targets for 65 yards.
- Packers RBs With a fumble and a dropped touchdown early on Monday, Aaron Jones opened the door back up for a timeshare in this backfield. In the past two full games that Jamaal Williams played, Jones has played 38.6% and 48.6% of the snaps with 11 and 15 touches for 23 and 60 yards from scrimmage. Williams had 18, 14, and 12 touches over his past three full games played and has been a top-30 scorer in all three. The Packers are a large home favorite, but the Raiders have been solid against the run to open the season, ranking 11th in rushing points allowed per game (12.1) while allowing only Dalvin Cook to clear 60 rushing yards in a game this season. With Williams sharing work, Jones is no longer an RB1 option.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Derek Carr: His highest scoring week on the season is QB18 while the Packers are fifth in passing points allowed per game (12.1).
- Oakland WRs: Oakland wide receivers are averaging 94.0 receiving yards per game, the fewest in the NFL. Tyrell Williams is dealing with plantar fasciitis and Zay Jones is new to the team. The Packers are allowing just 9.8 receptions per game to opposing wideouts, second in the league.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Jimmy Graham: The loss of Adams hasn’t elevated him the past weeks as he’s reeled in just five catches for 58 yards combined. You can chase a touchdown as Graham leads the team in end zone targets (six) while the Raiders are 26th in points allowed to the position.
- Packers WRs: With all of Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling not logging a practice all week, it appears the Packers will be going to their bench WR unit this Sunday. Last week, Jake Kumerow ran the most routes (36) of the backups, followed by Darrius Shepard (20), and Allen Lazard (11). But Lazard was targeted on 45.6% of his routes, but that light usage is tough to latch onto for us in lineups. Oakland ranks 26th in fantasy points per target (2.07) to opposing wideouts and 20.5% of their completions allowed have gone 20 or more yards, which is the third-highest rate in the league. This may be more of a sum of parts than having a single target to identify, but Lazard and Kumerow carry some deep upside if they are on the field all game.