Texans vs Colts Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 7

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 7 Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon game on October 20, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

Houston	Rank	@	Indianapolis	Rank
1.5		Spread	-1.5
23.25		Implied Total	24.75
27	8	Points/Gm	22.6	15
22.3	15	Points All./Gm	23	16
64.8	13	Plays/Gm	66.4	7
62	12	Opp. Plays/Gm	58	5
43.4%	11	Rush%	47.9%	5
56.6%	22	Pass%	52.1%	28
32.0%	2	Opp. Rush %	38.3%	13
68.0%	31	Opp. Pass %	61.7%	20

Deshaun Watson has been pressured on just 22.9% of his dropbacks the past two weeks (third-lowest) after 48.1% through the opening four weeks (second-highest).
Watson hasn’t been sacked in back-to-back games for the first time in his career.
Houston has converted 71.4% (15-of-21) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 54.6%.
41.3% of the Colts’ offensive yardage has been from rushing (fourth) after 29.2% in 2018 (24th).
Just 8.3% (9-of-108) of Jacoby Brissett’s completions have gone for 20 or more yards, the lowest rate of all 30 passers in the league with 100 or more pass attempts. League average from those passers is 15.1%.
Opponents have converted 66.7% (10-of-15) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns against the Colts, behind only the Dolphins (71.4%).

Trust (spike production for that player)

Deshaun Watson: Watson has been a top-four scorer in four of six games and we’ve gotten to see him operate with solid protection the past two weeks. Those two games came against two teams in the bottom-10 of the league in pressure rate, but that’s where the Colts are, ranking 23rd (20.5%) while also ranking 24th in passing points allowed per game (17.6).
T.Y. Hilton: Hilton is averaging career-lows in yards per catch (9.7) and depth of target (8.1), but he leads the team in end zone targets (four) and has given the Texans nightmares over his career. Hilton averages 5.4 receptions for 103.2 yards with nine touchdown receptions in 14 career games versus the Texans, having 85, 199, and 115 yards in three games against them a year ago. Houston has started the season 27th in points allowed to opposing wideouts.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

DeAndre Hopkins: The good news is that Hopkins had 12 targets last week, his most in a game since Week 1. The bad is that he had a season-low depth of target (6.4 yards) after having a 10.8-yard aDOT through five weeks. That usage led Hopkins to have just 6.1 yards per catch, his lowest in a game in which he caught more than two passes. The Colts did a good job on Hopkins a year ago as they did with many lead wideouts, holding him to games of 37 yards and 36 yards in two of the three meetings, but Hopkins also touched them up for a 10-catch, 169 yard game with a touchdown in a Week 4 shootout.
Marlon Mack: Mack is eighth among backs with 22.9 touches per game on the season, but is in a similar archetype as Derrick Henry, as Mack has just seven catches for 42 yards on the season. The Texans are sixth in the league in rushing points allowed per game (9.3) to backs, but rank 32nd in receiving points allowed to the position (16.9) per game. Mack is still the back to target for touches and scoring opportunities, but that latter point may give some life to Nyheim Hines as a shot in the dart FLEX option.
Will Fuller: A week after scoring over 50 fantasy points, Fuller seemingly left as many on the field a week ago as he put multiple touchdown opportunities on the ground. Fuller has been held to 49 yards or fewer in four games against the Colts, but the Indy pass defense has been giving up chunk yardage per target to opposing wideouts this season, ranking 29th in yards per target (9.7 yards) allowed.
Carlos Hyde: Hyde has tallied 21 and 27 touches the past two weeks and has all eight backfield carries from inside of the 10-yard line this season. The Colts are 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.71) to opposing backs.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Duke Johnson: Johnson had single-digit touches in four of the six games this season with double-digit points in just one game since Week 1. The Colts are 22nd in the league in receiving points allowed (11.3) to backfields, but Johnson has two or fewer catches in each of his past five games.
Colts TEs: If only we could play both of these guys as one Colts TE Voltron. Jack Doyle has run 99 routes to 92 for Eric Ebron while both have 20 targets on the season. The pair have combined for three top-12 scoring weeks, but all three came on the strength of a touchdown reception while neither has reached 50 yards in a game yet on the season.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett is 31st in yards per pass attempt (6.4), but has been riding a 6.0% touchdown rate, which is fourth in the league. That touchdown reliance will eventually catch up to his fantasy output, but the Texans are 27th in the league in passing points allowed (18.2) while also allowing 11 touchdown passes (tied for 24th).
Darren Fells: Fells has gotten on the board with back-to-back top-12 scoring weeks, but he and Jordan Akins are still splitting routes run right down the middle. Fells has two games with six and seven targets on the season, but seven total combined over his other four games. The Colts have allowed 6.2 receptions per game to opposing tight ends (27th) to keep the lights on for another week as a matchup to chase the past two weeks.
Keke Coutee: Coutee had lines of 11-109 and 11-110-1 against the Colts a year ago, but his role is different in the offense this season with the Texans using more two tight end sets and the pending return of Kenny Stills. If Stills is out once again, then Coutee can have some low-level FLEX value.