The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 7 Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game on October 20, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
11.5Implied Total28.5
3632Points All./Gm144
65.621Opp. Plays/Gm6110
55.2%32Opp. Rush %36.1%7
44.8%1Opp. Pass %63.9%26
  • The last time the Bills were 14-plus point favorites was Week 1, 1993.
  • The Bills are the only team in the league that has had every game go under the game total this season.
  • Miami has a minus-17 offensive touchdown differential than their opponents, the largest in the league. The next closest teams are minus-8.
  • Opponents have scored 80.2% of the points in games against the Dolphins, the highest rate in the league.
  • 46.6% of Josh Allen’s pass attempts have come on first down this season, trailing only Patrick Mahomes (47.8%).
  • Miami is allowing a league-high 9.3 yards per pass play and is 31st in yards per play allowed on first down (10.4).
  • Buffalo is allowing 5.1 yards per play, third in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Josh Allen: He has 16 or more fantasy points in every game outside of facing the Patriots while Miami has allowed at least 15 fantasy points to every quarterback this season and 20 or more points to all not named Case Keenum. Allen was the QB2 (28.7 points) and the QB1 (40.5) in his two meetings with the Dolphins as a rookie.
  • John Brown: He’s had a solid floor — scoring as a WR3 or better in four of five games — but hasn’t been higher than WR25 since Week 1. This is a good week to break that ceiling. Miami has allowed a top-12 scoring week to the opposing WR1 in four of five games.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Bills RBs: Devin Singletary is set to return after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury. Singletary had a robust 127 yards on just 10 carries through two games. Frank Gore also isn’t going away here as he was the early-down back with Singletary active to start the year. Miami is allowing a league-high 149.8 rushing yards and a league-high 195.4 yards from scrimmage to opposing backs.
  • Cole Beasley: Second on the team with 20.9% of the team targets, the Dolphins 30th against opposing slot wideouts on the season. 
  • Kenyan Drake: Drake has next to no touchdown upside, but he has held a steady floor. Drake has been an RB3 or better in each of the past four games with three straight games of double-digit touches for at least 70 yards from scrimmage. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Miami WRs: Albert Wilson returned last week, but he ran just 16 pass routes while DeVante Parker (48) and Preston Williams (45) operated as the primary options. The Bills are allowing just 5.7 yards per target to opposing wideouts, which trails only the Patriots (5.1) on the season. 
  • Miami QB: Miami has yet to announce whether Josh Rosen or Ryan Fitzpatrick will start, but we’re not chasing either here. The Bills are allowing just 8.9 passing points per game (third).

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Dawson Knox: He hasn’t had more than three catches in a game, but had a season-high 15.6% of the team targets in Week 5 prior to the bye. Everyone for Buffalo is worth some consideration here. Miami has allowed just one top-12 tight end on the season so far, but has faced the Patriots, Cowboys, Chargers, and Washington the past four weeks with limited tight end production.

More Week 7 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

KC at DEN | OAK at GB | SF at WAS | LAR at ATL | MIA at BUF | JAX at CIN | ARI at NYG | HOU at IND | MIN at DET | LAC at TEN | BAL at SEA | NO at CHI | PHI at DAL | NE at NYJ