The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 7 Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions Sunday afternoon game on October 20, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
22.5Implied Total22.5
15.56Points All./Gm23.618
64.718Opp. Plays/Gm69.832
37.4%11Opp. Rush %37.8%12
62.6%22Opp. Pass %62.2%21
  • The Vikings have won and covered in three consecutive games versus the Lions.
  • Detroit failed to score a touchdown on 22 drives against the Vikings in 2018. 
  • Minnesota has scored on 55.2% of their drives at home (first) so far this season, but 29.4% on the road (23rd).
  • The Vikings are averaging 1.4 more yards per play than their opponents, the largest differential in the league.
  • In 10 career games against the Lions since Mike Zimmer was hired in Minnesota, Matthew Stafford‘s average weekly finish is QB21 with 210.5 passing yards and 12.6 fantasy points per game. Stafford has finished higher than QB16 in just one of those 10 gamers.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Dalvin Cook: Cook had two games with fewer than 100 yards rushing and we saw both coming from a mile away based on the matchup while he still found the end zone in each game. This week, Cook is back to facing a soft run defense. The Lions rank 28th in rushing points allowed (16.5) and 30th in receiving points allowed (14.7) to opposing backfields.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Kerryon Johnson: He’s played 73% of the offensive snaps over the past three games, but has cleared 50 yards on the ground just once so far on the season. He also has two or fewer receptions in every game this season. The Vikings are seventh in yards per carry allowed to opposing backs (3.81 yards) and fifth in rushing points allowed per game (8.9) to the position.
  • Kenny Golladay: Golladay has 28.2% of the team targets over the past four games with over 25% in each game. He now leads the NFL with eight end zone targets on the season. Golladay has a sketchy history in three games versus the Vikings, posting lines of 6-58-0, 3-46-0, and 2-61-0, but is getting peppered with opportunities and high-leverage targets for fantasy.
  • Adam Thielen: Both Minnesota wideouts have hit the past two weeks, but Thielen is still the most bankable of the two options this week. Thielen is still running 33% of his routes from the slot, where Detroit ranks 16th in points allowed to wideouts compared to 14th against RWR and 10th to LWR options. The Lions play almost exclusively man coverage, so moving into the slot gives Thielen a clear matchup edge in avoiding Darius Slay
  • Stefon Diggs: Diggs only plays in the slot 17% of the time, so he’ll work on the boundary the majority of routes. Diggs has had positive return versus Slay before, however, averaging 6.2 catches for 72.4 yards per game with two touchdowns in five games against the Lions. 
  • Kirk Cousins: There’s some concern that this game sets up for the Vikings to go back to riding Cook and the run game as well as Minnesota playing down on the road so far, but Cousins is getting a Detroit defense on a short week that has allowed four top-12 scoring games in five games played and are 28th in passing yardage allowed per game (291.6).

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Matthew Stafford: His history against a Zimmer-led Vikings defense speaks for itself while the Vikings have allowed just one top-12 scorer through six games on the season. 
  • Marvin Jones: His targets have declined the past two weeks (15.2% of the team share), but has had found modest success against the Vikings with Detroit. Jones has 6-66-0 and 6-109-2 in his past two games in this rivalry. Jones has just two weeks higher than WR55 on the season, so he takes a step of faith in a matchup that has given Stafford issues.
  • T.J. Hockenson: He’s coming off a six-target game and is second on the team in end zone targets (five), but we’re strictly chasing a touchdown here as Hockenson has just 56 total yards since Week 1.

More Week 7 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

KC at DEN | OAK at GB | SF at WAS | LAR at ATL | MIA at BUF | JAX at CIN | ARI at NYG | HOU at IND | MIN at DET | LAC at TEN | BAL at SEA | NO at CHI | PHI at DAL | NE at NYJ