The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 7 Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon game on October 20, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
23.25Implied Total20.25
21.812Points All./Gm26.526
6316Opp. Plays/Gm65.722
40.0%16Opp. Rush %53.1%31
60.1%17Opp. Pass %47.0%2
  • Cincinnati has trailed for 75.1% of their offensive snaps, ahead of only Miami (89%).
  • 43.3% of the yards against the Bengals have been rushing, the highest share in the league.
  • Opposing teams are averaging 2.2 more yards per rushing play than the Bengals, the largest gap in the league.
  • The Bengals are allowing a league-high 5.5 red zone possessions per game at home.
  • 90.9% of the Jaguars’ touchdowns this season have been passing, the highest rate in the league. League average is 62.3% passing touchdowns.
  • 28.9% of the Bengals rushing attempts this season have failed to gain any yardage, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of the Bengals is 18.0%.
  • The Bengals have scored a touchdown on just 35.7% (5-of-14) of their drives that have ended inside of the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Leonard Fournette: He’s been a top-12 scorer in each of the past three weeks with 245, 137, and 118 yards from scrimmage each week. The matchup could only be better if it were at home, but the Bengals are 31st in yardage allowed per game (192.5) to backs and the increased scoring chances should enhance Fournette running on the positive end of touchdown variance.
  • D.J. Chark: The Bengals were already 24th in yards per target allowed to opposing wideouts (1.94) and now both William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick are out this week. The only potential thorn is overall passing volume. Chark has five end zone targets while the rest of the team has combined for six on the season.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Andy Dalton: Dalton is averaging just 6.1 yards per pass attempt over the past four weeks with his only game higher than QB17 over that stretch coming versus the Cardinals. The Jaguars have allowed one or fewer touchdown passes in four of their six games. 
  • Tyler Boyd: Boyd was erased last week (3-10-0) by Marlon Humphrey and now has fewer than 18% of the team targets in two of his past three games. Jaguars slot corner D.J. Hayden is allowing just 0.59 yards per coverage snap, which ranks third among all corners.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Gardner Minshew: He turned in his worst game of the season last week after scoring 16 or more points in each of the first five weeks of the season. Minshew should bounce back this week, but because the Bengals have steadily gotten steamrolled on the ground, they are keeping opposing passers from high ceiling passing games. The Bengals are 24th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.51), but are ninth in passing yards allowed because they have faced the sixth-fewest passes. The Jags should move the ball here, but if the run game dominates, Minshew should just deliver a solid game instead of a ceiling one.
  • Joe Mixon: Mixon has been an RB2 or better just once now through six games. He’s coming off a 10-touch, 39-yard performance in Week 6. That said, Mixon’s two best games have come against teams that have allowed backfield production in the Bills (95 yards) and Cardinals (109 yards) while the Jaguars are 25th in yards from scrimmage allowed per game (156.6) to opposing backs.
  • Dede Westbrook: Westbrook has received 25.2% of the team targets over the past four weeks with 61.8 yards per game over that span. The Bengals rank 21stt in the league in points allowed to opposing slot wideouts.
  • Auden Tate: He’s been a top-40 scorer in four straight games and a top-30 one in each of the past two weeks. Coming off a season-high 30.8% of the team targets, Tate also leads the Bengals in end zone targets (four). Tre Herndon – who has been playing in place of Jalen Ramsey and will continue to now that Ramsey has been traded – has struggled, allowing 12 catches for 191 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage over the past three weeks.

More Week 7 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

KC at DEN | OAK at GB | SF at WAS | LAR at ATL | MIA at BUF | JAX at CIN | ARI at NYG | HOU at IND | MIN at DET | LAC at TEN | BAL at SEA | NO at CHI | PHI at DAL | NE at NYJ