The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 7 New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears Sunday afternoon game on October 20, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.
|40.3%||17||Opp. Rush %||37.0%||10|
|59.7%||16||Opp. Pass %||63.0%||23|
- Chicago games are averaging a league-low 31.2 combined points per game and a league-low 17.5 combined points per game at home.
- The Bears have scored one touchdown on 22 drives (4.5%) at home this season, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Bears have scored a touchdown on just 15.1% (8-of-53) of their possessions, ahead of only the Jets (8.1%) and Dolphins (7.4%).
- The Saints have allowed a touchdown on 13.8% (4-of-29) of their opponent’s possessions the past three weeks after allowing 34.4% (11-of-32) over their opening three games.
- Defensively, the Bears rank second in rate of runs allowed to gain five or more yards (26.3%) and first in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (5.9%).
- Chicago is last in the league in rate of runs to gain five or more yards (22.9% – league average is 34.9%) and 10 or more yards (3.4% – league average is 11.6%).
- The Saints haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Samaje Perine in Week 11, 2017.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Michael Thomas: Thomas had over 30% of the team targets come his way in each of the past three weeks. He’s reached 100 yards in just one of his five games with Teddy Bridgewater playing the bulk of snaps, but has at least eight receptions in four of those games.
- Allen Robinson: He’s at 25.1% of the team targets with at least six receptions in four of his five games. He’s in line to be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, who has still allowed the most yardage in pass coverage this season, but has turned the corner lately. Lattimore has held down Amari Cooper (5-48), Mike Evans (0-0), and D.J. Chark (3-43) over the past three weeks.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Mitchell Trubisky: Practicing early in the week, Trubisky appears to be on schedule to return this weekend. Trubisky’s 5.5 yards per pass attempt rank ahead of only Josh Rosen (5.2) for all passers with 100 or more pass attempts on the season The Saints rank third (30.2%) in pressure rate and have gotten going defensively, allowing just 196.7 passing yards per game over the past three weeks on 6.6 yards per pass attempt.
- Teddy Bridgewater: Bridgewater has been in the back half of quarterback scoring in every game outside of a home game versus Tampa Bay. Bridgewater’s average depth of target is 5.8 yards, ahead of only Luke Falk (5.7 yards) for all qualifying quarterbacks. The Bears rank first in the league in pressure rate defensively (34.1%) while the average depth of throw against the Bears is 6.0 yards, the lowest in the league.
- David Montgomery: He’s had just one game as an RB2 or better and the Bears just lost Kyle Long to injured reserve. The Saints are seventh in rushing points allowed per game (10.8) to backfields.
- Tarik Cohen: He’s coming off a season-high 10 touches in Week 5, but it was a game in which the Bears trailed heavily throughout. The Saints are strong against the run, but also rank fourth in receiving points allowed per game (8.8) to backfields.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Latavius Murray: Alvin Kamara is dealing with an ankle “issue” that is expected to limit him this week during practice and potentially keep him out for Sunday. Kamara played 59.1% of the snaps in Week 6 with Latavius Murray playing a season-high 42.4%. The Bears were excellent versus the run prior to a Week 5 showing in which the Raiders backfield ran for 157 yards and they’ve lost Akiem Hicks for an extended period. Murray is not the pass catcher that Kamara is, so his floor is much lower. The Saints rank 24th in the league in plays run inside of the 10-yard line over the past five weeks, so scoring opportunities have been thin for the run game. This is another game where scoring opportunities should be hard to come by as the Bears haven’t allowed more than 15 points in just one game this season while the Saints have scored 13 or fewer points in three of the five games without a healthy Drew Brees. If Kamara plays, he’s a mid-RB2 option. If he sits, Murray is a lower-end RB2.