It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.

In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group. 

Up first: which wide receivers are likely to go OVER their receiving yards total?

Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop bet: why you should bet the over

Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Brandon Aiyuk:

It would take a fairly significant step backward (or an injury) for Brandon Aiyuk to land under his receiving yards prop, after he reached at least 748 yards in each of his first two seasons in the league. 

  • Potential increased workload 
  • Efficiency after the catch makes him ideal fit in Shanahan’s offense 

#1 Reason to Bet the Over

Aiyuk went over these numbers last year (826 yards) and San Francisco made few changes to the receiving corps. At a minimum, his 17% target share should remain steady.

It’s also possible Aiyuk’s usage increases due to the injury history of George Kittle and a potential usage regression for Deebo Samuel, who was probably overworked last year (180 targets plus carries). 

#2 Reason to Bet the Over

Samuel might be the perfect receiver for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but Aiyuk is an ideal fit as well and that should give us increased confidence he maintains a significant role. 

Shanahan likes to put his receivers in position to create after the catch, and that is Aiyuk’s greatest strength. 

Based on route-adjusted data, Aiyuk picked up 32% more yards after the catch than expected last season, the eighth-best rate in the league, per TruMedia. 

This has been a consistent trait in Aiyuk’s game dating back to college, when he gained 39% more yards after the catch than expected in his final season at Arizona State. 

For this reason, if the 49ers scale back Samuel’s usage, expect Aiyuk to benefit. 

» Bet the Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Over 

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Jaylen Waddle’s receiving yards prop bet: why you should bet the over

Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Jaylen Waddle:

It took only 16 games for Jaylen Waddle to clear the 1,000-yard mark a season ago, and he should be expected to replicate that production in his second year in Miami and hit the over on these props.

  • Significant upgrade in offensive coaching 
  • Skill set is perfectly suited for Mike McDaniel’s offense

#1 Reason to Bet the Over

Waddle’s production in 2021 came despite an incoherent offensive game plan which did not put him in the best position to succeed. 

The greatest strength  Waddle brings to the table is his ability to produce after the catch, yet Miami rarely found ways to get Waddle the ball in space. 

Based on route-adjusted data from TruMedia, Waddle produced 13.5% less yardage than expected after the catch last season 一 a massive dropoff from his college production (44% above expected). 

Simply by improving the game plan, Waddle should be a more efficient pass-catcher for the Dolphins under new head coach Mike McDaniel. 

#2 Reason to Bet the Over

Not only is McDaniel expected to bring a better offensive game play to Miami, it’s an offense perfectly suited for Waddle’s skill set as a creator after the catch. 

McDaniel will run a version of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which relies heavily on putting the team’s best playmaker in position to do damage after the catch. 

Based on route-adjusted data, no team created more yards after the catch above expected than the 49ers in 2021 一 meanwhile the Dolphins ranked dead last (16% below expected). 

Even if Waddle doesn’t replicate last year’s usage (140 targets), expect his yards per reception (9.8) to take a substantial leap McDaniel’s offense. Deebo Samuel (18.2 yards per reception) and Brandon Aiyuk (14.8) have demonstrated the type of per-reception production we should expect from Waddle this season. 

» Bet the Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Over 

Rashod Bateman’s receiving yards prop bet: why you should bet the over

Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Rashod Bateman:

In his second year with the Baltimore Ravens, former first-round pick Rashod Bateman is a good bet to hit the over on his receiving yards prop as he takes on an expanded role in the offense. 

  • Increased usage due to departure of Marquise Brown
  • Possibly better suited for Ravens’ offense than Brown

#1 Reason to Bet the Over

Bateman generated 515 receiving yards in 12 games a season ago, which put him on pace for 730 over a full season. 

With Marquise Brown now in Arizona, and no significant pieces added to the offense, Bateman should see enough of a usage increase to easily hit the over on his yardage totals even if his modest yards-per-target rate (7.6) remains constant. 

#2 Reason to Bet the Over

Brown topped 1,000 yards as the Ravens’ primary weapon a season ago, and it’s possible Bateman could surpass Brown’s numbers if he’s given a similar target share. 

Although Brown has blazing speed, he has never been a reliable pass-catcher. In 2021, Brown hauled in 71% of his catchable targets at 10 or more yards downfield 一 a rate Bateman easily outpaced at 83%, according to Sports Info Solutions. 

Although it was a small sample size in Bateman’s rookie year, his reliable catch rate was consistent with his 81% rate during his final collegiate season at Minnesota. For comparison, Brown closed out his college career with a 74% catch rate at that distance. 

With an expected increase in target share and some evidence he may be a more reliable weapon than Brown, it’s easy to envision Bateman hitting the over on his receiving yards prop. 

» Bet the Rashod Bateman Receiving Yards Over 

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