The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon game on November 10, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
18.75Implied Total21.75
16.43Points All./Gm25.623
618Opp. Plays/Gm62.516
41.8%19Opp. Rush %46.0%26
58.2%14Opp. Pass %54.0%7
  • The Browns are the only team in the league without multiple touchdown passes in a game this season. 
  • The Bills are just one of two teams (Patriots) that have yet to allow multiple touchdown passes in a game this season.
  • Cleveland has played five of the top-11 teams in expected points added through pass defense so far (Buffalo ranks third). In those games, the Browns have scored a touchdown on 5-of-59 drives (8.5%) as opposed to scoring a touchdown on 12-of-35 (34.3%) drives in their other three games.
  • The Bills have converted 71.4% (15-of-21) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 55.2%.
  • The Browns are allowing 6.9 yards per play on first down, the most in the league.
  • Buffalo is fourth in the league in percentage of first down plays that result in another first down (23.9%).
  • The Bills have allowed 151.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks (31st) after allowing 87.8 per game through five weeks (eighth). 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Josh Allen: Allen has held a strong floor, but hasn’t quite gotten over the hump as a ceiling option so far. He has been the QB15 or higher in six games, but a top-12 option just twice. He is averaging 56.6 more passing yards per game on the road (242.0) than at home (185.4), the largest road increase per game for all quarterbacks. 
  • John Brown: Brown has been similar to Allen, averaging 75.4 yards receiving per game with a low of 51 yards. He’s had double-digit points in seven of eight games, but just had just two weeks as a WR2 or better. Brown moves around a good amount, running 45% of his routes at LWR where he’ll see Greedy Williams, 20% in the slot versus T.J. Carrie, and 35% at RWR, where he’ll line up against Denzel Ward
  • Devin Singletary: Last week was the changeover for Singletary surpassing Frank Gore as the lead back for the Bills. In a game with no negative game script at all, Singletary out-snapped Gore 41-to-21 while handling 23 touches compared to 11 for Gore. It’s worth noting that Gore did still have three carries inside of the 5-yard line, but he couldn’t convert any while Singletary converted one his two for a score from that area. The Browns are 25th in yards from scrimmage per game (155.4).
  • Nick Chubb: Chubb has been an RB3 or lower in three of his past four games, but has at least 17 touches for 91 yards in seven straight games. Even with Freddie Kitchens saying that Kareem Hunt will “have a role” in his first game of the season, but Chubb still projects to be the lead option here while the Bills have allowed 113, 176, and 94 yards rushing the past three weeks to the Washington, Eagles and Dolphins backfields.
  • Jarvis Landry: Landry has benefited from the target suppression for Beckham. Landry has received at least 25% of the team targets in five of the past six games and has turned in four top-30 scoring weeks over that span. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Odell Beckham: Beckham has two targets from inside of the 10-yard line out of 18 for the Browns. He’s now had fewer than eight targets overall in four of his past five games, the most amount of games he’s had with fewer than eight targets in an entire season. Beckham had 5-52 (WR42) against the Patriots and Stephon Gilmore and 5-87 (WR26) against the Broncos and Chris Harris over his past two games in brutal matchups against top corners. Those are still usable games, just down for expectations, so you can keep using him and not get buried. He gets his third straight poor draw against Tre’Davious White, who ranks fourth in the league in rating allowed when targets (49.8). The Bills have allowed 42.0 yards per game to opposing WR1 options, the fewest in the league. 
  • Baker Mayfield: Mayfield’s only QB1 scoring week this season came against a Seattle defense that ranks 20th in expected points added via pass defense. The Bills rank third while not allowing multiple touchdown passes in a game yet this season. 
  • Cole Beasley: Beasley keeps getting by because he’s scored a touchdown in three straight games, but has just 11 catches for 91 yards over his past four games on 16.1% of the team targets. 

More Week 10 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

LAC at OAK | ATL at NO | ARI at TB | KC at TEN | DET at CHI | NYG at NYJ | BUF at CLE | BAL at CIN | MIA at IND | LAR at PIT | CAR at GB | MIN at DAL | SEA at SF