The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers Monday Night Football game on November 11, 2019 at 8:15 pm ET.
|35.2%||5||Opp. Rush %||40.6%||16|
|64.8%||28||Opp. Pass %||59.4%||17|
- The 49ers haven’t been the lone undefeated team in a season since 1954, when they started the season 4-0-1.
- The 49ers and Seahawks have faced six common opponents with both going 6-0 in those games. The 49ers have an 86-point point differential while Seattle has a 31-point advantage.
- This is the first time the 49ers have been favored against the Seahawks since Week 14, 2014.
- San Francisco has scored 74.7% of the points scored in their games at home this season, the highest share in the league.
- Seattle has scored three or more touchdowns in eight games this season, the most in the league.
- The 49ers have allowed three touchdowns just once this season, tied with the Patriots for the fewest in the league.
- Seattle has a league-leading 25 red zone touchdowns this season while ranking second in red zone attempts (37).
- The 49ers are tied in allowing a league-low five red zone touchdowns this season while ranking second in red zone attempts allowed (16).
- Russell Wilson averages a league-high 9.2 yards per pass attempt under pressure this season. The rest of the league has a 5.9 yards per pass attempt under pressure.
- Wilson has been under pressure for 41.9% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Emmanuel Sanders: The addition of Sanders has yielded immediate returns as he has a touchdown in each of his first two games with the 49ers. In those two games, Sanders’s 14 targets trails only George Kittle (15) while he’s commanded 39% of the team air yards on 24% of the target opportunities. Coming off a 7-112-1 game last week, Sanders draws a Seattle secondary that has allowed lead wideouts Mike Evans (12-180-1), Julio Jones (10-152-0), Odell Beckham (6-101-0), and Cooper Kupp (9-117-1) to have 100-yard games on them over the past five weeks.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Russell Wilson: The 49ers rank first in the league in pressure rate on defense, but Wilson has been no stranger to excelling under duress this season. Wilson has already faced the second (Steelers), third (Saints), and fourth-ranked (Rams) team defenses in pressure rate this season and was the QB5 (24.2 points), QB1 (41.3), and QB3 (29.9) in those games. As division rivals, Wilson is no stranger to the 49ers, but has a hard time reaching his ceiling against them. Wilson has thrown more than two touchdown passes in a game just three times against the 49ers in 15 games played and has never hit 300-yards passing in any of those games. The 49ers looked mortal on a short week last Thursday, but still only allowed 241 passing yards with an 88-yard touchdown as part of that yardage. But the 49ers did allow 34 rushing yards to Kyler Murray last week, the first mobile passer they’ve faced this season.
- Chris Carson: Carson has at least 18 touches in six straight games while averaging 120.7 yards from scrimmage over that span. In similarly tough matchup last week, Carson handled 18 touches for 133 yards. San Francisco still ranks seventh in rushing points allowed per game to backs (10.1), but have allowed 5.4 yards per carry over their past five games since their Week 4 bye to backs after 3.3 yards per carry prior.
- Tyler Lockett: Great things happen when the Seahawks target Lockett, we just wish volume like last week was more of a regular occurrence. Lockett has three games with double-digit targets this season and they are his three highest-scoring games of the season. He has seven or fewer targets in his other six games and hasn’t been a WR1 in any of those games. The 49ers have allowed just six touchdowns to opposing wideouts so far this season, but four of them have been on splash play gains of 39 or more yards.
- 49ers RBs: The production pendulum from this unit swung back in Matt Breida’s favor last week as he out-touched Tevin Coleman for the first time in a full game both played this season 17-to-14. The touches were warranted, too, as Breida tallied 92 yards to 36 for Coleman. The timeshare is frustrating from preventing us from a having a locked-in RB1 to use for fantasy, but this 49ers backfield leads the NFL in touches (37.3) and yards from scrimmage (199.1) per game while they are potentially on track to get all of Joe Staley, Mike McGlinchey, and Kyle Juszczyk back into the lineup this week for the first time since Week 2. If betting on a touchdown, Coleman is still the better option as he’s handled 10 carries inside of the 10-yard line since returning to the lineup in Week 5 compared to just one for Breida.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Jacob Hollister: Hollister has been the receiving tight end to replace the void left from Will Dissly. Hollister has six, two, and six targets over his three games while active, catching nine for 75 yards. The 49ers have allowed a league-low 4.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends so far this season with just one touchdown. They lost Kwon Alexander for the season last week, which could open that up for inflation, but Hollister is still a touchdown reliant play.
- D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf has hit in two favorable spots the past two weeks, but this week’s outlook is a bit tougher. The 49ers rank fourth in the league to boundary wideouts, where Metcalf runs 87% of his routes. Metcalf is still a red zone favorite, leading the NFL in end zone targets (13), but we need to see how his role is impacted — if at all — by the addition of Josh Gordon to go along with the tougher matchup.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Jimmy Garoppolo: If you streamed Garoppolo last week, you were rewarded with a QB2 overall scoring week (28.9 points) and potentially another week to use him if needy. Seattle has allowed 16 or more fantasy points to seven consecutive quarterbacks in Jameis Winston (20.2), Matt Schaub (20.4), Lamar Jackson (23.3), Baker Mayfield (19.5), Jared Goff (17.9), Kyler Murray (16.3), and Teddy Bridgewater (16.3).
- Ross Dwelley: With George Kittle now looking doubtful, Dwelley has some mid-TE2 appeal. He played a season-high 70% of the snaps in Week 9, catching all four of his targets for 29 yards. The Seattle defense that is 24th in yards per target allowed to tight ends (8.3 yards) while also ranking 25th in targets faced per game (7.9) to the position